Sar 8/29

[Segwin]

This is the 6th race at Sar today.

There are 3 early horses (actually two originally - the 10 was EP but it appeared to be an E so I changed it).

My question is will the three wreck each other and let an EP in or will the 10 have enough to go wire to wire.

Thoughts?

[noddub62]

From the TPR E/L screen and using the last line, eliminate the 2,3,6,7,9,12 horses. Then go to the original pace line analysis for the remaining horses. Eliminate any that don't have + or (+) lines UNLESS they had an excuse. If so, go to 2nd line and repeat. Throw the horse out if no + or (+) lines in the excused 3 recent lines.

Eliminate down to 5 or less by however you eliminate. I use a combination of lowest TE & Primary Line Score if their rankings are the same. If not I use lowest BL score.

I'm not being critical but you have too many horses in there and that will/could conflict the final rankings. I'm no guru but have had good sucess using this approach and it works for me. Bill V showed me this and I can say that it works very well for me. I think that I like it better than using the best of the last 3 Perceptor because it forces me to consider the most recent line before using another. However; most every uses the Methodology a different way and like Doc said "there no rules".

I hope you try this and re-post.

Good luck,
Budman

[Mark]

I'd suggest that you have 3 E's and 2 EP's
E's - #6, #10 and #11
EP's - #1 and #3
I would suggest you project a 22.6 - 45.8 pace
Now who can run to that pace?
A spot play from the Hat Blog is to eliminate the 3 equivalent E's
Look for a runner that will in 4th or 5th position at the 1st call.

[Segwin]

Thanks Mark.

There are some pretty good odds so far.

[Segwin]

I went 10 & 5. We shall see.

[Segwin]

Well, that didn't work out as planned -lol. I didn't watch the race but will view it on a replay.

7, which came in 3rd, must have stopped off at Lourdes before this race

[Mark]

Tough horse to find.
I bet the #4. My top two horses were the #4 and the #7.
Looking at the winner's PPs you can see that her connections thought a lot of her at one time with several Graded stakes showing but dumped her into a $15,000 claimer two back and all the layoffs suggest she is not a very sound horse. Hats off to her trainer! Hell of a training job.
Sometimes you eat the Bear, sometimes the Bear eats you!!

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Mark

I'd suggest that you have 3 E's and 2 EP's
E's - #6, #10 and #11
EP's - #1 and #3
I would suggest you project a 22.6 - 45.8 pace
Now who can run to that pace?
A spot play from the Hat Blog is to eliminate the 3 equivalent E's
Look for a runner that will in 4th or 5th position at the 1st call.

Thanks Mark
Just for the heck of it
I tried to match up this race.

I set the POR at 22.5 and 46.2 from horse 10

I dd just as you posted and looked OTE
and looked for a horse positionaly 4th or 5th
at the first fraction I landed on the 4 based on line 3 and 5, but only got 2nd place

The 4




the winner # 8

[Segwin]

What on earth did you see in 7 Mark? On her pp I didn't see any saving grace but obviously something kicked in.

That's what I love about this gig - its unpredictability and trying to beat it. I've done fair and am at a breakeven point (which for where I'm at in the big scheme of things isn't bad).

I think I'll go lick my wounds and start reading some more.

[Segwin]

What's OTE Bill?