Using pace lines from an off track

[GeorgeC5614]

Hi Guys,

I am trying to work the first race at Finger Lakes today. The first line from the number 4 was his only race at Finger Lakes, but the track was listed as good. If I use that line the 4 is the clear horse to beat. If I hide that line and take the next best perceptor which was a race from Belmont he drops to third and the 1 becomes the horse to bet. If anyone has the Finger Lakes card today and can take a look at it that would be very helpful.

Here are my BL/BL screens, I hid the 2 as I do not believe he can win and is the ML favorite at 1.8.

With line one


Without line one


Thanks!

[rmath]

George, I would have no problem using the FL gd. race.
I personally do NOT play races with less than 8 betting interests .
In my opinion #1 & #4 are the two most likely win horses.
Both have good morning lines and if their pastime odds are decent I would play them both.
Richard

PS: I use the lines selected by the best of last 3 comparable.

[Lt1]

I would use the FL line unless the track was sealed or there was an wacky track variant for that day.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Well, the race has been run already, but nonetheless, it might be good to look at the E/L info on the various races for the 4. The Belmont E/L is slightly negative, while the FL race is +16 e/L. You probably want a race from comparable class and distance that aligns itself closer to the average E/L from this horse. the +16 E/L puts this horse in direct competition with the #1 winning horse at +11 - so who breaks better, has the best early fraction and the better 2nd call position from the segments screen.

What was the range of E/L numbers when the horse won or was competitive?

After you know this info, you can be in a position to choose the most representative pace line.

Cheers,

[GeorgeC5614]

Thanks everyone that information is very helpful!

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Well, the race has been run already, but nonetheless, it might be good to look at the E/L info on the various races for the 4. The Belmont E/L is slightly negative, while the FL race is +16 e/L. You probably want a race from comparable class and distance that aligns itself closer to the average E/L from this horse. the +16 E/L puts this horse in direct competition with the #1 winning horse at +11 - so who breaks better, has the best early fraction and the better 2nd call position from the segments screen.

What was the range of E/L numbers when the horse won or was competitive?

After you know this info, you can be in a position to choose the most representative pace line.

Cheers,

Sorry I said that the winning horse was the 1. In fact, it was the two and you have presented no info on that horse, so we do not know anything about the E/L characteristics of the winner in the race case.

However, I am curious why, in a six horse race, you left out one horse from your screen shots,who happened to win? even if you want to bet against a low price horse you should have a line for the horse. you can always deem the horse a non contender in order to look at the rest of the pace lines.

[DocSartinLearner]

Hey GeorgeC5614 ... before you answer Bill Lyster, read this

Hiding Horses Why?
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2574

Good skills,
DSL

[GeorgeC5614]

I am still trying to learn everything, and it is coming slowly. I have heard about hiding horses and thought that was what should happen. Even though the horse was the morning line favorite I didn't believe from his PP's that he could handle the pace of the race. He only had one race that was close to the first fraction, and that race the second fraction was 1.3 seconds slower than my projected pace. I really need to re-read the follow up on the TPR/EL graph and how to interpret it. I think I understand a little better. If I understand correctly I should have used line 3. The two wins for the 4 were 5.5 and 7.0. The two times he ran late didn't go so well, and anything over 13 and finished up the track.



I understand that screen, but I am still having trouble with the screen below that shows all the contenders together. I added back the 2 horse:



and here is the segments screen I never would have had the 2



Thanks for all the help, and if you can remember which follow up it was that explained the EPR + E/L screens that would be great.

[GeorgeC5614]

Thanks for that link DSL, it helped with the hiding question and also on wager capping.

George

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by GeorgeC5614

I am still trying to learn everything, and it is coming slowly. I have heard about hiding horses and thought that was what should happen. Even though the horse was the morning line favorite I didn't believe from his PP's that he could handle the pace of the race. He only had one race that was close to the first fraction, and that race the second fraction was 1.3 seconds slower than my projected pace. I really need to re-read the follow up on the TPR/EL graph and how to interpret it. I think I understand a little better. If I understand correctly I should have used line 3. The two wins for the 4 were 5.5 and 7.0. The two times he ran late didn't go so well, and anything over 13 and finished up the track.

Attachment 39337

I understand that screen, but I am still having trouble with the screen below that shows all the contenders together. I added back the 2 horse:

Attachment 39338

and here is the segments screen I never would have had the 2

Attachment 39339

Thanks for all the help, and if you can remember which follow up it was that explained the EPR + E/L screens that would be great.

Hopefully not trying to belabor this point too much, but you can see what happens when you use a line that is aberrant. The 4 likes to lead in the hi 22's or 23 second 1st fraction and while it can press it looks like it would more likely enjoy an uncontested lead at those speeds. Also its good races have been against 46+ 2nd fractions! Last time its best 1st fraction (by the EPR info) lost ground at every call. At this point you should look at horses that have lead at the first call and see if the 4 will like this pace or fade from it.

I would not eliminate this horse yet because it was competitive last out, but I would go back and take a line that was either a winning one or when it finished up closer to the winner. When you do that the CPR total is 169 or less and the EPR drops into the high 80's. then you can compare the 2 to see if it needs an open lead or if it fights at all and make a decision.

You will notice that if you eliminate the 4's line 1 that the total CPR of the remaining 4 horses are only spread apart by 0.5 point and that the total energys are similarly in line, but with a slightly wider spread (so a pretty tight race on paper). I would guess that the 1 and 2 are the main early contenders (segment graph agrees), so you need to determine if their pace can be over come by the closers and proceed accordingly.

Regards,