Beaten by a Nose, 85% of the time, Why?

[pktruckdriver]

Okay I am here today because I want to become a winner, and I always thought I was pretty good Handicapper, but it seemed that evrytime I picked a HORSE, it would run around the track and somehow be in the lead right up to the finish line, and then he/her would give up the lead and come in 2nd, almost automatic, and I COULD NEVER FIGURE OUT WHY???

I believe I am in the place to find out, and can be taught here how to avoid that in the future and what to look for in the RDSS program to help me recognize that pattern, the one that cost me lots of money, and of course when I thought I would be smart and bet him 2nd in the exacta, of course he died sooner and or won the race, but for the longest time, My Pcik would lead 99.8% of the race and lose that last few steps of the race, consisitently, and now I wish to correct that and learn how to pick the winner that does not die, but has the energy to put the field away at the end of the race.

Right now I am going thru my db and trying to find race pacelines, with the following criteria,
1. recent races ( last 3 races ) providing no lay-offs
2. same distance
3. same surface
4. same class, if possible , but not neccassry (lowest priority)

Now these are the basic criteria, and it leaves me with very few races on a card sometimes, what is the average would you say that are playable on a average card at Belmont/Mtr/Woodbine/So.Cal/Calder, etc... would it be 3-4 races per card or less or more, I'm seeing some cards as a wasted download, unless ones criteria was changed to accomadate advanced paceline selection, and that is not where I am at yet.


But it would be nice if someone could help me understand how to get the edge on that last second beating I was taking for so long, please. I know it lies within the RDSS energy ,TE or some where in there, and once shown I should be able to remember and know what to look for , and can still use what's left in the DB to study with, and then use current cards to, as it is so much more fun to watch a race live and see how you would have done, and it alos teaches me patience and discipline in not betting every race,something I need to learn, and will.

Well it's been a long day, I hope this post will be understood, if not please ask me to clarify it more and I will try, thanks again, all.

Patrick

[Profiler8]

Hi Patrick,

you must look for value. There are many races everyday with no value. It is right, that you don`t bet every race on a card. I am a Black Magic User as well. Sometimes there are only 1-3 races to bet on from 250 races. You should only bet horses in the top 3-4, when there is a good price. The art of passing races. You are on the right way.

It is horse racing, that the best horse sometimes lose.

Greetings
Tim

[Tim Y]

From a late great handicapper who died long before his time: "NEVER look at a race as an absolute. Think or race scenarios and bet accordingly."

ALL of us have runs where the camera is not kind yet we figured the horses would be close at the wire. IT is part of the game, always will be.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

From a late great handicapper who died long before his time: "NEVER look at a race as an absolute. Think or race scenarios and bet accordingly."

ALL of us have runs where the camera is not kind yet we figured the horses would be close at the wire. IT is part of the game, always will be.

Tim
True enough that being beaten by the camera is part of the game, but I believe that my beats are something that could been avoided with RDSS, or knowledge of the pace and energy of the horse I chose to bet on. I really feel that this program can help me indentify horses that will fade at the wire, wouldn't you agree , that Doc had a way of seeing this occur time and time again in his mind , and then the race would be just as he invisioned.

I will be there someday , I hope, and I was just asking about what part of the readout on RDSS will help to find those fader's, and better choose my horses, and then I will practice looking for it,and hopefully get better than I am now.

Now this is just one part of the Pace of the Race that confuses me as I find 2nd place horses instead of winners, but this one is my biggest fault or most crushing defeat, and I want to find a way to stop it, and then we can go on to finding the deep closers and wire to wire guys later, but let me find a way to stop betting on the eye=lash fader's, as it is killing me slowly.

Please do not hink I am asking for the keys to mint or the top secret way to win, and if so , that is not the case, just trying to learn the program and what it can do for me, and I am asking the things I hope it can do for me, and will get answers back saying , oh, yeah that can be done, let me show you how, it may take you some time to learn it, but it can be done, and then I say thank you , and now let me get busy. Okay

thank you
patrick

[MIKE]

Hey Patrick
--how are you ??
--how did you like Finger Lakes ??

--the next time you like a horse, let me know
and I'll bet him for second !!!!!
--or I'll put him on the bottom of exactas !!!!

---more than one way to skin a cat !!!!

--stay safe on the road man !!!

Mike

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks Mike

I will let you know, lol.


Nice meeting you the other day and good luck.

Patrick

[shrink1]

Patrick,
I don't know if this is any help. But, we've all been there. Ican't tell you how many times I have had the 3rd leg of a Pick 3 going with 3 horses that not only get beat at the wire but finish 2, 3 and 4. You just have to keep plugging and continue to use what you know with RDSS. Good luck and hang in there.
Ira

[Ted Craven]

Patrick,

Turn this into a learning exercise. One single race may have no other outcome than the beat-by-a nose scenario you mention - 3 races gives more to work with, if you're looking for specifics.

The specifics would be two-fold: a) how did you analyse the true contenders in a race, b) what wagering decision did you make.

I propose the following (in a RDSS Topic if you like, or wherever):

1. identify 3 races you lost as described above (track, date, race); identify your contenders (program #) and your line or lines selected to represent them (e.g. MNR 6/24 race 2, #1 line 3, #2, line2, etc, etc); better still, post a screenshot

2. state what wagering decision you made in each case (e.g. 1 horse bet on #2, 2 horse bet on #3, #4, exacta #4 over #3, #6, PASS - yes PASS is an important wagering decision!, etc)

Then we can get down to work on some specifics. Maybe some program nuances are escaping you. Maybe your contender guidelines need tuning. Maybe your wagering strategy needs a makeover. Details, details.

Let's get to work.

Ted

P.S. if any RDSS or Spec160 or Val4 users want to help with this analysis, I am happy to provide past cards to work with.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Tim


Now this is just one part of the Pace of the Race that confuses me as I find 2nd place horses instead of winners, but this one is my biggest fault or most crushing defeat, and I want to find a way to stop it, and then we can go on to finding the deep closers and wire to wire guys later, but let me find a way to stop betting on the eye=lash fader's, as it is killing me slowly.

START this way: choose lines from horses that ran good E/EP rankings in their last three comparable. These horses usually competed against some of the faster 2nd calls, and many are improving early, THE BEST ANGLE IN RACING

[Bill V.]

Hello Patrick

Since you have RDSS this will be a good thing to study
Maybe not now It will come at some time. look for a slow quiet time. Slow down and relax your mind. Sit back and see if you can put your mind into a
state that your aware and relaxed.
Now open up any horse from any track
Take a not of that horses APV and Class rating
Look at a horse that is in the top 5 APV and for this excersise
look at races that have a race rating over 85 but maybe less than
95
These are not great but not pigs horses
Look for a horse that shows a few wins and in the money
finishes were it was right there at the finish
Set the original pacelines in the uper tap area
and set the 2nd window to the E/L TPR tab

Now put a check mark on the horses good races
since you say you are getting beat late it sound to me like your betting
some Early and early pressers that are using too much of there energy
Look at the good races in a horses PP's and not its readouts on the E/L
graph. You should see the horses confort zone

If a horse wins with a 12 early on the early late graph
but runs second or 3rd with a 15 E/l Its could be a case of
in a match up with other early horses the horse will go out of its E/L comfort zone a quick run skimmy of each horse in the race and picking running styles
can tell you if your early horses might need to use too much of there energy
early which might cause that last second loss

I think two very import readout on RDSS or Spec160 or Val4
or any Sartin Program is the combination of Total energy and the Early late graph