More on EARLY...

[For The Lead]

Some time ago I wrote a post (actually, a new thread) called “Bill V goes the extra mile”. Here is a link so you can read it. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8969

Before you go there you should also read this post. Here, I am going to go over two races, one posted by Ted and the other is one I am posting. BOTH, are similar to Bill V.’s race. Rather than me duplicating Ted’s words, I’m just going to cut and paste what he said, here.

“Didn't think that the Lone Early #1 Midnight Aria had what it took to survive the 3rd fraction challenge from both the #2 and #7, but it was an instructive lesson in what a Lone Early can do: slow things down then draw on the savings when challenged in the stretch, which is precisely what happened.
In retrospect (i.e. where everything is clearer ), I should have examined the last race Tandem between more than half the field - the Plate Trial - particularly in light of Midnight Aria being a LONE EARLY - truly: no one else wants the lead (check it out).
In the Plate Trial (last Tandem), Midnight Aria dueled through 8 of 9 furlongs with one another horse, who is not running today and as a result of which duel, lost by (only) 1 3/4 lengths. (BTW, same scenario with its 2nd and 3rd races back; basically, he's begging for a scenario where he will not get a pressured trip). Is it reasonable to presume (if the horse is still fit) that he will run that fast again today with no one to pressure him - or will he ease up a bit while still controlling the pace? And have just a smidgin more left in the tank than in his previous 3 races?

I cannot remember how many long prices I have cashed on by expecting a Tandem reversal today given the absence of a previously impactful horse (a lot).

As I said - a retrospective - BUT the value is in at least ASKING the above questions - and knowing that you can find that kind of info somewhere in RDSS! At 17-1, you get a lot of slack for trying to compose wagers which include that horse somehow, especially since the 2nd and 3rd place horses were already covered by 'less astute' analysis.”

Very nice work, especially where Ted looked back beyond the last race! Outstanding! Nobody said handicapping was easy. Nobody said there wasn’t some “work” involved.

The only thing I will comment on is where Ted said,” In retrospect (i.e. where everything is clearer ”. Everything Ted said here was just as clear PRE-RACE as it was POST-RACE…IF YOU WERE LOOKING FOR IT!

After reading Ted’s post, I went and looked at the race. Here is my “original” screen showing the lines I used and how the contenders running styles compare. To me, this would be the first indication that there is a possibility that one of the contenders could go wire to wire.



This was a nice winner @$35.20.

Ok, on to the race I wanted to post. It was the 2nd r ace at PEN today.
I’m not going to run down the whole field, but instead, focus on the winner, #7. Here are the PP's for the winner.



It broke it’s maiden in its’ 4th start at two years old for $10,000. In it’s next race vs. NW2L for $12,500, it ran a very respectful 2nd. This was followed by another race vs. NW2L for $16,000, where the horse showed good early speed before fading. What is important here is, the horse was “OFF” for almost 5 months after this race. Again, it is important to note that this was the horses last race as a two year old. Why is that important? I have written about young horses getting injuries and time OFF being required to heal the injury. This seems to fill the bill.

When the horse comes back to the races it is entered in a $13,000 “OPEN” claiming race. Although the claiming price is less than the horses last race before the layoff, it is actually a more difficult race because it is against “OPEN” (unlimited multiple winners) company.
This was followed by a drop in class to $8,000 vs. NW2L. Good placement. It showed some early speed and faded. Is there a reason it did not run better? The track was ‘sloppy’ that day and since this is the only time the horse has run on an off track, we can assume it did not care for the footing that day.
The horses last race was, again, vs. $8,000 claimers. This time it was against “state bred” horses.
What is important here is this. I went back and looked at that race. There were no less than 2 other early horses in that race that were more “dedicated” to making the lead than this horse. It was to this horses credit that it chased another horse for a half mile (67% of the race) in that race before fading. Remember, early horses want the lead. In most cases, if they can’t get the lead they fade. This is no different than a closer that cannot get the pace it needs and does not close.
So we have a horse that has had 3 races back after a layoff, one of which can be dismissed for an off track. We have a horse that was “outgunned” for the lead in its’ last race and, today, IS the lone “dedicated” early horse in the race. The result? A wire to wire win @ $22.20.

I’m sure my following comment could be disputed, but you don’t get “early” winners looking for a good 3rd fraction. That is for closers… when you are looking for a closer. With early horses, it is the early fractions you should be looking for, along with other “dedicated” early horses in the race.

In both of these examples, just like Bll V.’s race, it was the extra handicapping by going back and looking at previous races that made these winners playable.