Projecting Times Refresher Course

[shoeless]

Richie and Don P,Can you do a refresher course on projecting times for a sprint race?[I didnt want to bother The Hat].Just that topic nothing else and if you could use standard PP'S. Thanks Jeff


PLEASE NO COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS UNTIL THEY ARE FINISHED AND ONLY ON THIS ONE TOPIC.I FOR ONE AM NOT INTERESTED IN ANYTHING ELSE BEYOND THIS RIGHT NOW.

** Yes I will do a race or 2 with the "regular pp's". I will speak with Hat and get a good one Jeff.** - Richie

[RichieP]

Jeff

Let's look at a race that hasn't run yet. This one will run on Wednesday and is race 6 at Tampa Bay. I know you like that track.

We will use Hat Bradshaw's 5 step approach here to aid us big bro.

Here are the full past performances for each horse.

After you run through them once or twice anything hitting you regarding projecting a pace here?

Is there a pure early horse?

[RichieP]

balance of the field Jeff

[shoeless]

Richie,First of all thanks for going over something that you have done before and going to the trouble of using the pp's.You know all too well how much easier it is for me.

Now to the race you picked a tough one for me anyway.For a pure early horse I would say it would be the 1.I would go 4 back to the Oct 7 because the last 3 were on the off going.Im having difficulty with the 8 I believe he cant run out of the gate with the 1.Jeff

[shoeless]

Lil Bro,Perfect race to pick as this is the type that gives me fits.This is the 3rd time I have been back here.Now Im not so sure about the 1 being pure early because he has only done it twice on the pp's.That 22.2 45.7 he has only done one time.In all honesty I cant even project the time in this race.Jeff

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Lil Bro,Perfect race to pick as this is the type that gives me fits.This is the 3rd time I have been back here.Now Im not so sure about the 1 being pure early because he has only done it twice on the pp's.That 22.2 45.7 he has only done one time.In all honesty I cant even project the time in this race.Jeff

Excellent because I can not either if looking for a pure early horse. So going back to the 5 step approach Jim out lines a second way to project a pace to measure contenders by:

This screen shot is direct from Hat's 5 step approach. I agree with you and think we should apply his SECOND way to project for TODAYS race.

If you agree read it and then tell me who the horse is and what is the pace Jeff

From Jim's "5 step approach"

[shoeless]

Richie,I would say the 3 horse he only finished 1\2 length off of a 22.4 45.6 111.6 in his his last race at today's track and distance.Since Hat said dont add beaten lenghts then the projected pace would be 22.4 45.6 111.6.Even if Im wrong this is really great how we are going through this step by step.Im not just saying this to blow smoke up your a**.Jeff

[tfm]

My $.02

the problem with this race is that there's a mix of classes

no telling if one of the Allowance or AOC horses wakes up and wires the field

[gl45]

reasons why I bet this horse:
7 days rest.
Back class. Won at higher class
Finished in the money in 3 of last 4 races.
Today is entered at his lowest class.
Same jocks on board that won before.
Front running EP
Last race was a coditioning race. Easy race. Performed well in a fast race
Today is cutting back distance.

[shoeless]

Richie,I didnt get home in time to bet but I had also e mailed Pino earlier that I liked the 8 as well.When you have a chance can you tell me match up wise why you had the 8.The match up did lead me to the contenders but the reason I liked the 8 was his race 2 back and the fact that they were putting back on Centeno[the leading jock there] who had won with him 4 races back.Also his last race was run against a 21.3 44.2 and to the stretch he was 4.5 lengths off.


By the way I tip my hat to you for doing the race this way step by step and for using the pp's.After using nothing but the form for 30+ years it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.Jeff