VDC Ties/Separation Discussion

[Ted Craven]

This thread is a VDC-related continuation of another thread which wasn't really initially about VDC. (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=73598)

Here might be a better place to continue the VDC part of that discussion

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Congratulations Bill, and a job well done!

Do you believe the 0.0 % V/DC horse(s) was any improvement on using the V/DC rank #1?

Ted

I moved some replies related to VDC from that thread to this one.

Ted

[kenr3138]

Hey Ted:
My opinion, the answer is yes. It reflects the differences between VDC rankings but more important it separate the ties within each rank. This is key in using VDC with the
positions of the horse icons in the third frame of the Segments Tab in RDSS1 & soon to be in RDSS2.
The horse to beat is the best VDC/POH(TE).

Ken

Ken

[rmath]

Ted, I went back and checked the races where I had a tie for top and found that the 0.0 % horse beat the other tie over 75 % of the time.
The use of the percentile ratings appears to be a good way to separate ties.
I was going to ask Bill V. if he got similar results when he had ties in the top rated position?
I am now recording these rankings along with the VDC rankings to get a more accurate read on ties. Also noticed that if the 0.0% does not win, it places more often than the other tied horse.
I have also noticed that a second or third VDC horse at times will have a lower % difference than a higher rated Vdc horse. Example a 3 vdc has .9% and a 2vdc might have a 1.4% . So would this imply that the 3rd ranked horse is actually better than the 2nd ranked horse?

[Ted Craven]

Richard and Ken,

I think the VDC % versus rank # addition to RDSS2 needs a bit more discussion, both usage and exactly what is being referred to, and what Doc Sartin was thinking (as best I see it) in the whole VDC thing.

Richard (or Ken, or both), could you post a screen example of a Segments screen showing the VDC numbers, ties % and # ranks (either the same one you refer to, or analogous) and I would be happy to comment on what we are seeing (and perhaps what we are not seeing).

I suspect some people are either misinterpreting what's being displayed, OR there are new and valuable ways of utilizing it which should be examined.

Here's a reference to an initial discussion about how I am portraying VDC %, distinct from rank # in RDSS2: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7595

Ted

[Ted Craven]

To recap, the VDC rank (from Val4 and RDSS1) is the better rank of BL/BL or the actual VDC factor - that's where ties come from, and Doc Sartin's idea was to consider 2 such equally ranked horse as EQUAL and to separate (if needed) based on bet-time odds. V/DC is derived from a fairly complex calculation (paceline dependant) which measures deceleration relative to velocity during several segments of the race - see FU 70 - 72?? for Doc's white paper on VDC and some early readouts.

Richard, now that we can see the % diff of the actual VDC factor (on the Segments and Primary screens) and see the actual rank of that factor (and not just the merging of VDC+BL/BL, which we have traditionally seen), what I hear you saying is you think the actual VDC factor is stronger than the merged factor, so much so that (when you need to) you just go with the better actual VDC factor to separate tied VDC ranks. Did I understand you correctly?

And Ken, I hear you saying you focus on combo of best VDC rank and PoH Total Energy. Correct?

Again, someone put up a screenshot with some ties to discuss, and I am happy to clarify anything.

The research on the utility of the underlying factor (and Bill V's, as well) is worthy of much more study!

Ted

[rmath]

Ted, I sent two attachments from race 6 at Del. from yesterday.Hope you got them.
They show an example of what I was referring to.
I am new to doing these attachments. Please forgive me if they did not get there.
I sent them thru the email notice.





** I attached them to your post. (FYI, all you have to do is click the 'paperclip' icon to add attachment files to your post - give it a try!) - Ted

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Richard for the illustration.

I'll add a few comments, after I finish another thing.

Ted

[rmath]

Ted, Where is the paper clip? I have looked every where for it,
I wanted to send race 7 also.

[rmath]

Ted, I tried to send race 7 to you thru a reply thread but was unable to send it.
So I sent it thru my email. Sorry for the trouble.
rmath





*** Here they are.

[rmath]

The race ran 6 6.00, 4,7,3. exacta 1.00 25.30, 1.00 tri 95.90.
the 2 &6 were tied for 1st vdc,with the 6 at 0.0 % the 2 was 2.1%
the 3 &4 are tied for 2nd vdc, 3 has 1.9 % and the 4 has 1.2%.
the 1 is 3rd ranked with 1.5%.
The 6 was also a Binder Improver.
Notice that the 3 had a lower % than the 2 horse but was rated below the 2 on vdc. Same goes for the 1 horse.