M4$16/2 Aug 6-Pook

[The Pook]

Okay here we go again. I will post a race later today.

[The Pook]

WO7/4:13PMEST

And we are off!
Lots of threatening rain on the east coast. Gave up on a few interesting turf races because of possible T-Storms. Will stay safe with a poly race at my home track that I haven't played much this year. It has a Conquest horse in it.

I remember a couple of years ago Hoof advised me to never bet against a Conquest horse at WO-(something like that, but it couldn't have been that general). And I don't know if it still applies but he is the favourite with a top jock and trainer.

Good luck to all nine of our current players.
Pook

[The Pook]

4-8

[cigar]

Good Matching skills all...........looking forward to learning from the advance matchers.


Pace: 22.5-46.3
OTE

1-part of pace duel - out
2-contender - Tandem
3-ran in restricted company - out
4-dist may be too short - do like her power move two back
5-contender - Tandem
6-contender - Tandem
7-contender - likely fav - will try to beat
8-will be up on the pace - Tandem - out

$2 Win/Place: 5-6 - Winner coming from tandem

[Ted Craven]

$2 Win #3 and #5

Pace to be set by Early #7 at 23.1 . 46. Other Early #1 (and maybe #6) cannot keep up after F1. Reviewing the PoR screen F1 Velocity ranks, #7 has 2 lines which rank better at F1 than #1. An Early horse should show up as the F1 leader - and #1 cannot keep up.

However, the other Earlies will tire the #7 who will not last (plus his expected favourite odds and lower Rx rank count as a negative). (Plus if Gandalf the 'Wizard of Saratoga' says speed is challenged on Woodbine Main Track Tapeta, I listen.)

Thus the race runs Other Than Early (OTE). Per the Original screen, the 2 good closers are the #3 and #5. The #5 has closed to win against a faster 4f and 6f time than the projected pace. Per the Rx screen, the #3 has run with great Final Time consistency (CSR=1) and against higher calibre competition while well favoured in the odds (CR+ = 1), plus #1 LPR.

FWIW, the #4, though prepping well - for her closer running style, has not shown ability to close all the way in only 6.5f. Plus never run and won after a 70 day LO, let alone a 267 day LO. To be in contention, needs to duplicate her best ever SR by far = 83, last race last year. Maybe for in the money, but not for win. IMO.

Thus: win bets on #3 and #5, with maybe some nice odds on the #5. That's all I got for now. Bet-time odds may change things ...

[gandalf380]

There looks to be plenty of speed here which usually does not hold that well on the Tapeta.

My picks:
win #3 Lilly's Goldie
win place #4 Crack That Whip

[Pat C.]

I am calling this race OTE. Lots of speed from the 1 & 7 & maybe the 6 pressuring also. The 1 is the fastest but needs multiple clear lenghts to win. The 3 will be close up and will be a real threat. The 4 will be coming late, at the best odds. Looks like she was probable hurt two back, but has had steady works coming in to this race.
For this contest I will go with a win and place on the #4 to try for some ROI.

Good luck to all, Pat

[The Pook]

WO7

I was attracted to this race by the #1.

My initial impression of the race was
1) He ran against the FPLR
2) He gained in positions and lengths and then faded
3) He mostly runs early
4) He reversed his running style last out and gained indicating sharpness

I made him as good as I could from past races, and then tried to beat him. The 6 came closest but on turf. My records at this track, distance, and Allowance level say early corollaries rule. The odds are good at 7-1. The 1 is my horse.

#1 TO WIN
Pook

[Ted Craven]

Good work Pook and Lostandwon!

Ted

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by The Pook

WO7
My records at this track, distance, and Allowance level say early corollaries rule.

I would have to agree with you Pook, you have to be within 2 ½ lengths of the lead in a sprint to have any success on the Tapeta, unless there is a weather bias. Your analysis was spot on and you were rewarded with a nice price, well done my friend!

Contreras is no dummy (except for his ride in the Queen’s Plate), the 1 was exiting a key race where 3 of the horses in that race went onto win next time out, you can make that 4 after today.