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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-10-2016, 06:16 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,543
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The 1 did worry the 6 but still he got away with much slower fractions this time and was able to hang on. No value in the win but maybe for you exactor players.
Pook |
03-10-2016, 06:32 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The Pook: Your right about picking winners as everything else springs from winners. I.e. ex., tri, DD.P3's etc. When the odds are low, like you I suspected them to be as the 5 & 6 towered over the field, I look for other opportunities. I wouldn't take less than 5-2
Mitch44 |
03-10-2016, 07:53 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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pace
Thanks Mitch and Pook and Lonespeed
Yes its great to see you matching up with TPR Pook, Mitch I'm with you The 5 and 6 both were low once the 7 went out the 6 had a big advantage early. That was a nice call on the 1 for the exacta No bet for me so I just saw the results LoneSpeed excellent use of the first fraction and the old dos Sartin Program Price was low but the 6 probably was a good "single" |
03-11-2016, 09:08 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Half the battle is proper wagering and getting out what you can. While I will take 5-2 on a horse I'm a two horse better and the low odds on the # 6 prevented that, I would have to bet 70% on the 6 & 30% on the 5. That and the payoff wasn't worth the risk. Therefore the ex. was the option. I eliminated the 5 & 6 and 6 & 5 combination at 4 minutes to post as they still were too low a payoff. $16 & $14. You can't put say $12 in and make money on these type payoffs. They both ended up going off at $14 I frequently do this and you would be amazed how often the top two horses don't finish one two.
I biggest problem was separating the 5 & 6 as they towered above the field considering everything. I figured the # 1 to route and you can get that from the early late graph that the horse can rate. However in the line I used(L 4) was at 7 F and he was decelerating. Even through he can rate we don't know if he can get the distance and still must prove it, advantage proven routers. We also don't know with this horse where he may start to decelerate or more important how fast. Many times they can hold on for 2 or 3rd. Note: I didn't play the Trifecta as I've gotten away from them as anything can get 3rd. Ex. & DD are easier to hit. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-11-2016 at 09:12 AM. |
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