The 'Red-board' Discussion!

[atlasaxis]

Note: this discussion originally started in a RDSS Teaching Forum Thread, here --> http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8982&page=3 . I have moved the portion involving 'red-boarding' to this new Thread in order to keep the other thread focused as it originally was on 'teaching' about handicapping Maidens. (...Ted ...)
.

FTL, you're an absolute GENIUS, after the fact. Try posting these BEFORE the race is run without the redboarding. Seriously, ya gotta laugh at this stuff.

[Bill V.]

I disagree
I find before the race presentations a little helpful
The problem with before the fact demos is the presenter
very rarely comes back with an explanation of what happen if his
selection loses. I also want to see race examples with track condition
and scratch's taken into account, this helps me get a clear picture of the match up.
Since I only bet races( for real money ) when I know the scratches and conditions. I find that before the race
sections to sometimes be flawed.
I find FTL's teaching skills to be extraordinary and his after the fact
screen shots and commentary to be something that Doc Sartin would have been
proud to publish in the Follow Up journal

I for one have improved dramatically thanks to FTL's work and guidance
Its a treasure to go back and study the teaching area post,with all his post race analysis

Bill

[vderdak]

I believe what FTL is trying to teach in these posts beyond basic handicapping knowledge is pattern recognition, we have all seen these races before, through repitition, he is pointing out this pattern repeats itself day in day out at every track year after year.

People will see the pattern and still be afraid to make the wager because the odds are high and some of the horses last race running lines show a poor finish, he is also trying to teach some of you to have confidence in your own ability to make the bet when you see the pattern.

Keep on posting FTL!!!!

[Bill Lyster]

Atlasaxis you could not be more wrong!

This is a TEACHING thread. If you followed this thread from the start you would be educated to an eye opening facet of handicapping that few understand.

FTL's continued posts are reinforcement of a method that works well. His thoughtful presentations are welcomed by many.

I went back and reworked all the maiden races from Santa Anita this season. There were 145 playable races and almost 57% of horses either 1st or 2nd at the second call won. In turf races almost 62%. I am just as sure that there are refinements that would make these numbers even better!

Many times you end up with only one or two contenders, but sometimes even with more contenders the relationship of the contenders at the 2nd call is so compelling you begin to understand why SOME low odds horses are great bets even with odds under 2:1

Anyway I encourage you to work races with FTL's guidelines and see for yourself. You might end up apologizing for your redboard comment.

Sincerely,

Bill

[atkinsrr]

Thx for the posts guys..I gotta tell ya that handicapping after the fact is one of the best long term habits that we can get into....great teaching tool...and learning to teach yourself things makes you better..............

[lone speed]

For the Lead presents some guidelines on what to seek in certain races.....

Howard Sartin strongly recommended avoiding races without three North Ameican pacelines to evaluate.....Ftp presents examples after examples of race where one should exploit and to capitalize on....
His guidelines become strong factual regiment to seek out...after so many race examples...it goes in tune with the old adage..."It is best to learn how to fish, then to be given a fish.....'

I for one recommend Ftl's presentation as a great learning tool ad with most of his message posts in other threads....

This is a great thread...hands down....

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I disagree
I find before the race presentations a little helpful
The problem with before the fact demos is the presenter
very rarely comes back with an explanation of what happen if his
selection loses. I also want to see race examples with track condition
and scratch's taken into account, this helps me get a clear picture of the match up.
Since I only bet races( for real money ) when I know the scratches and conditions. I find that before the race
sections to sometimes be flawed.
I find FTL's teaching skills to be extraordinary and his after the fact
screen shots and commentary to be something that Doc Sartin would have been
proud to publish in the Follow Up journal

I for one have improved dramatically thanks to FTL's work and guidance
Its a treasure to go back and study the teaching area post,with all his post race analysis

Bill

Disagree all you want Bill. Anyway you want to dress it up it's still redboarding &/or backfitting the results of a particular race, something any one of you here could do and something a few of you here have gotten pretty good at. Heck I could even show you how my ancient Taulbot software had the winner of the last race at Aqu saturday, but what would that prove? Not a darn thing. I know quite a few of you worship the ground this person walks on but it is what it is when it comes to redboarding &/or backfitting. Carry on.

[For The Lead]

TO: Bill V, Bill Y, Vderdak, atkinsrr and Lone Speed

Thank you all for you kind comments. I appreciate them very much.

[Dorianmode]

When I was struggling with certain aspects of racing, I quit wagering, and decided for a couple months to "reverse-engineer" what would have produced a winner in the series in which I was having difficulty.
Even if races are looked at "a posteriori", the look can be very educational. It's actually the one main factor to which I attribute my present success. The method which produces a winner, whether done before or after, produces the winner. I learned how, backwards. So a "retro" look at a race is valuable to me. It's the same thing as going over any "miss" you I have. I look to see if I would have done anything differently. The more the answer to that is "no" (once you are firmly in profitable territory), and you see it's "just move on", the more your confidence grows, (IMHO).

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Disagree all you want Bill. Anyway you want to dress it up it's still redboarding &/or backfitting the results of a particular race, something any one of you here could do and something a few of you here have gotten pretty good at. Heck I could even show you how my ancient Taulbot software had the winner of the last race at Aqu saturday, but what would that prove? Not a darn thing. I know quite a few of you worship the ground this person walks on but it is what it is when it comes to redboarding &/or backfitting. Carry on.

Actually, you have no idea what you are talking about and it appears several others feel the same way.

You don't understand what this site is about.
It is about helping others.
You don't understand what this thread is about.
It is about helping others.
You don't understand what the teaching area is about.
it is about helping others.
And you certainly can't identify red boarding.
So let me help you out.

IF you had taken the time to read my posts, of which there are many, before shooting your mouth off, you would learn that I don't "red board and/or back fit" anything.
In addition, I don't recall anyone who "red boards" LOSERS.

I started this thread with people like you in mind. That's why I took a couple of consecutive days and used every maiden race carded at the tracks I was watching on those days. I used the very same guidelines I always use for contender selection and paceline selection, that way there would be no question as to which horses would be the contenders and no question as to which pacelines would be used. I posted the winners AND the losers. (odd for a red boarder, don't you think)
Before starting this thread I also commented on statistical information taken from my database of more than 600,000 races and more than 5,000,000 horses and stated what I would be looking for in order to find the most logical winning horse.
So if you aren't able to put the pieces together, let me help. Red boarding is taking any given race and "finding a way" to get the winner. That isn't what I do. I lay out a set of guidelines on contender and paceline selection and follow them in every single race. In the end, the winner is either among the contenders or it is not. That's the reason there are some races here where I wrote "the winner was not among my contenders". WOW! Imagine that!! a guy who red boards losers!!!

Most people who frequent this site are pretty much aware of the guidelines I use for picking contenders and pacellines. If you aren't familiar with them, perhaps you should read more of my posts.

And again, most people who frequent this site know that I use my own software. Contender selection and line selection are done on an automated basis. My software doesn't know if the race is in 15 minutes, tomorrow, next month or a year ago, it picks the same contenders and pacelines no matter when I run the program. Last I heard, computers don't red board, they just do what they were programed to do.

On this site you can find the Sartin Library. In that library you can find all the "follow ups" and "manuals" for the Sartin Methodology. Have you ever read any of this material? If you thought my posts were funny, then you will absolutely die laughing at the stuff you will find in the library. It's full of red boarding!!! (by your standards) We call it "educational material" and "things to learn from". And you know what? There isn't one race that is discussed or dissected there that was in advance of the race. Not one! That's because it is presented for educational purposes. Most, if not all, follow ups have what is called "the problem race". It is a race that presents specific problems and it is presented in order for others to learn how to handle races like this in the future should they encounter one like it.

Finally, I don't think there is a person on this site that "worships the ground I walk on" (your words, not mine), but I think there are those who appreciate that I take the time and make the effort to try and help. If, in fact, my posts do help them...then I am happy about that.