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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 06-13-2014, 10:25 AM   #21
Bill V.
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Del race 4

She's Animated ran again yesterday at Delaware The track was sloppy

This time there was another E7 in the race - Horse 5
She's Animated was in Post 1 so I considered the chance that
she would either break first and get the lead or that the 5 would also try for
the lead and use too much energy early.

# 7 Barbs Beauty is also a early type but being on the outside
Maybe she would hold back and let them go I used line 1 Its a + line but also a trouble line , I figured she would be in position 3 again today
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Here is the Phase 1 screen

Look how # 1 has the best EPR rating. Horse 5 is in trouble right here.

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Horse 1 She's could go wire to wire. If she fails who will catch her ?
That is the decision. Is it horse 7 or 4.
At this point I would go to thoromation but just using Phase I
I would look at total pace and total energy and energy excretion. Once again thank you to Ted for putting everything in Phase 1 on one screen.

Horse 7 and 4 are tied on TPR but horse 7 has a 2 point advantage on
total energy. As for as energy horse 4 and 7 both use there energy
more early than late If horse 4 had the same readouts but had a higher
lp than ep I would have bet the 4

The phase 1 bets here would be 1 and 7 split 60/40

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Old 08-25-2014, 09:50 PM   #22
Matt D.
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Bill: That was an excellent work up. If you could post more of these and keep explaining your logic, that would be great. I like the way you thought in regards of early vs. late pace. That made sense.
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