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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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12-17-2013, 06:33 PM | #21 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Quote:
Ted And, as always, these are my Settings.
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12-17-2013, 06:56 PM | #22 | |||||
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Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Don, replies in blue text:
Quote:
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12-17-2013, 07:06 PM | #23 | |
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In this case, re pacelines - it was simple: use BLT/C (best of last 3 comparable) PSS setting (the default). I poked around a bit to see if my eye identified any chosen lines as truly 'non-comparable' to today's surface and distance structure. Also checked for last line excuses (#5). The most important changes I made from programmed choices were: a) the Earlies Running Style markings (getting the software better at that, but not the current circulating version) b) Identifying the long layoff horses as non-win contenders (partly due to the layoffs, but also partly due to their compromised Early Positional tendency - the #3 and #6). These steps are pretty much what I do regularly (it is programmable). Maybe I should make another video. cheers, Ted
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12-17-2013, 07:07 PM | #24 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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i thought so
Thank you
Ted I think that you have added a very powerful tool and thank you for the good work up on Don's race Bill - |
12-17-2013, 07:10 PM | #25 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Quote:
Ted
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12-17-2013, 07:30 PM | #26 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Much better
Ted
This is a good feature, because in Validator Doc said to "hide the favorite" for win bets only. to do this it only happened when you hid a horse you took away its pace line. Then in Validator you had to re- enter a line for the favorite to see how it ranked and ran on the early late graph if you wanted to bet exactas and trifecta's so this saves a step for sure. Bill |
12-17-2013, 08:21 PM | #27 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
I will try to keep it simple as this endeavor is challenging enough...The best "Matcher" was Jim Bradshaw, hands down! But on this board, we have RichieP. Pete C, and Capcondo...just to name a few... We cannot be self-absorb in rankings, especially the top rankings....Who is number #1 in V/dc or on B/L......You have to take into consideration how they earned the rankings or final times...Keeping in mind that final time (raw or adjusted with the best speed figures are not the answer to the matchup puzzle) Bradshaw stated that using One-fifth or one tick of energy early creates a lost of two-fifths or two ticks late (in the final time adjusted for the loss of energy) So first call (loss of one-fifth) results in the loss of two-fifths in final times. In this matchup: #7 is the fastest to the first call at 22.0... what happens then.... the #7 will cause the #3 and the #1 to run 3 ticks faster at the first call and the #6 who came off a race on the poly surface which are run like turf races. #6 will have to run more than one second faster since he ran his last race in 23.3 and 46.6 on the lead. So all these early horses will be force to use more energy early at the expense of losing their closing ability in the last fraction of this 6 furlong race. In this readout by Ted, the #1 horse is clearly the best of the early front runners but will not be able to run his final time from the last paceline of 1:10.5 since he will be forced to run 3 ticks faster early at the first call. So to use Bradshaw's "formula", he loses at least 6 ticks on his final time. Like Ted stated, we are looking for an OTE horse with the abundance of early pace runners in this matchup. May the better match up posters carry the baton from here... Good skills |
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12-17-2013, 08:24 PM | #28 |
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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That is really impressive borodin. I like it.
Only thing is I think you are using unadjusted fractions to denote POR. As I understand it the only true numbers (as shown) for the first fraction are by horses leading at that point in their chosen line. All others need to be adjusted by 1/5 per beaten length. I'm sure you already know this, but you can make that adjustment by entering the line fraction number shown then left clicking for each 1/5 you want to slow it to the actual pace that horse ran. Right clicking speeds the POR time by 1/5 per click. That way you can get adjusted times to use for comparison without going to the adjusted screen which no longer shows your matchup POR. Is that correct?
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12-17-2013, 10:07 PM | #29 | |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 18
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Quote:
I don't trust the internal fractions on the adjusted time screen, except to give me a barometer of a generally faster track (i.e. Turf Paradise) vs a generally slower track (i.e. Mountaineer). I look to see what PoR the horse ran well off of.. When I figure out what the pace of today's race is, I look at each horse and see if it can run well against that or a faster pace. If it ran well against a slower pace, I see if recent races show it running well against today's pace. When I know which horses can run well against today's pace, I then see how many horses run early and match those against each other. Sometimes I throw all of them out. Then I look at the non-early (OTE) horses and see which one had the best move against this pace or had any kind of move against a better pace. I then figure what position they'll be in today and if they can run well from that position---I believe it's called "comfort level" here. In the race above, I figured #3 and #7 would go for the lead, with #3 quitting, and #1, which could sit in 3rd, a good spot for it, would challenge #7 at the second call and probably wear that one down. From there it was a question of whether the effort/energy #1 used to get to the lead would take enough out of it for #5 to go by in the stretch. My instinct told me that #5 would arrive too late to catch #1, making #1 a good bet at 5-1, but at 10-1, #5 was still a decent win bet. Had 5 been 4-1 or lower, I probably wouldn't have played it. |
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12-17-2013, 11:15 PM | #30 |
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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You're doing very well, IMO. I think you have accomplished more in less time than I did.
It's just that I think those raw fractional times can be misguiding in a matchup attempt where differences can be slight. But they're easy to adjust for beaten length by noting their running line position to the right of the fractional times. I LOVE that feature of being able to enter your POR fractional times at top of form. Those times though, even adjusted for beaten lengths, still don't address differences in track deviance for times from various tracks in chosen pace lines. I believe that difference (as well as surface) IS addressed once you switch to the adjusted screen. I only mention all this because I'm just like all students trying to get better at incorporating all this info and use of the software. As for this race, it is THE RACE where I ceased actually trying to play anything and just capped the races to see what happened relative to my top contender choices. That turned out to be my best choice of all.
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