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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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08-25-2017, 09:57 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Travers Stakes - 2017
Seems like a very contentious race. On the other hand, if we can eliminate a few of the Morning Line horses from the Win, our profit potential increases!
I want to wait until tomorrow to reassess this Rx line, when the ProfitLine ranks will be available (for inclusion in the Rx3 line score). Right now however, Rx2 (which uses CR+ enhanced Class rating as the Power Number in the Rx line score), eliminates from Top 4 and ties two of the Morning Line Favourites - always a good thing! No matter which paceline you use for any of the demoted Secondary horses (i.e. not for Win), they rank no better than 6th. The ranks of the Primary horses may jump around a bit when tomorrow's ProfitLine is available for this Travers Day card, but since a few people have asked - here's what comes up so far. I will be zeroing in more particularly with the tote analysis as the race approaches. Still, a very contentious race! .
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-26-2017 at 09:29 AM. Reason: update readout to include ProfitLine in Rx3 |
08-25-2017, 10:36 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My first look
Thank You, Ted for posting the Travers
Here is my first look. Look at those Late Pace Ratings !!!! so wild numbers for sure I will update if needed as the day goes Good Skill Bill (BVD) |
08-26-2017, 09:22 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,154
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After my first pass thru I have 6-3-5-1-10-7 as my contenders.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-26-2017, 10:08 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Travers
1-3-4
Bob |
08-26-2017, 11:17 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Travers
Contenders 1,3,4,7
3,1 Pook |
08-26-2017, 12:38 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Travers
What a fantastic field! Whose going to take the lead and what kind of early pace are they going to carve out? Is someone going to wire the field? The obvious horse who has pressed and led early is #7 Always Dreaming. He got the lead in the recent Jim Dandy at 9f at today's track only to fade late. But this was his first race in 70 days and Pletcher probably didn't have him cranked up all the way. There appears to be 3 horses that will press this leader: #3 West Coast, #10 Irap and #12 Fayeq. My feeling is that the winner will come from this group.
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08-26-2017, 01:08 PM | #7 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 24
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1-3-5-6-9
ex 3/6/9-1/3/5/6/9 GL! |
08-26-2017, 02:47 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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All three triple crown winners in same race
It has been a while since we had a championship race where all the winners of the Triple Crown races are in the same race. Fantastic Field!!!
Always Dreaming - Kentucky Derby Winner Cloud Computing - Preakness Stakes Winner Tapwrit- Belmont Stakes Winner Always Dreaming comes off a clunker in his last race.. Today's race seems like a race where Pletcher will send this one early to prep for the BC Classic at Del Mar. I don't believe Always Dreaming was in top form when Cloud Computing won the Preakness. Tapwrit just won the marathon -Belmont Stakes- new form cycle in today's race I'm more interested in Omar's pick from this year's Kentucky Derby- McCraken. This horse had me puzzled after the running of the Kentucky Derby as did Tapwrit. Later I see that Pletcher saved Tapwrit for the Belmont stakes. McCraken ran sustained two races back and race early when he lost to Girvin in the last race. IMHO, McCraken is primed for today's race- the Travers Stakes. Good Skills |
08-26-2017, 04:35 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,091
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I went with Girvin, Mccraken Always Dreaming.
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Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com |
08-26-2017, 05:17 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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My look
I believe that the 3YO picture will be further muddied after today. Lots of price potential in this race. Good luck!
Code:
SAR0826 11 10.0 D G1 3 $1,250,000 5:44PM BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4) HIDE# PNcNAME LdT SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE 4 9 MCCRA1 95 5 23.0 EVEN MTH 9.0D 12/1 27 3 2 4 TAPWR4 92 8 17.3 5-2 TAM 8.5D 7/2 77 3 1 3 WEST 2 92 8 16.5 3-1 BEL 8.5D 4/1 42 3 3 7 ALWAY4 91 7 15.5 * 7-2 GP 9.0D 6/1 28 3 6 11 GUNNE1 83 7 15.5 * 7-2 GP 8.5D 20/1 20 3 5 10 IRAP 1 90 7 13.3 4-1 IND 8.5D 8/1 42 3 SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐ │ PRIM │ SUPP │ │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│ │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│ ┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│ │#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤ │1│ 3 WEST 2 │ 92│ 8│2│4│25│3│15│3││1│6│6││S/P│ 1.3││1│6│2│6│6│3│1│3│1│4│2│5│ │2│ 4 TAPWR4 │ 92│ 8│3│2│24│2│14│2││2│2│5││PRE│ ││2│5│3│3│4│3│4│2│4│3│3│2│ │3│ 7 ALWAY4 │ 91│ 7│6│3│26│4│15│3││4│3│4││SUS│ 2.4││4│4│4│5│5│2│2│4│2│2│4│3│ │4│ 9 MCCRA1 │ 95│ 5│1│1│13│1│ 7│1││3│1│1││SUS│ 0.7││3│2│1│1│2│1│3│1│3│1│1│1│ │5│10 IRAP 1 │ 90│ 7│4│5│27│5│24│4││5│4│3││SUS│ 3.2││5│3│5│4│3│2│5│5│5│5│5│4│ │6│11 GUNNE1 │ 83│ 7│5│6│26│4│30│5││6│5│2││LAT│ 7.0││6│1│6│2│1│4│6│6│6│6│6│6│ └─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘ |
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