FTL Paceline selection ?

[For The Lead]

Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.

Originally Posted by atkinsrr

Shoeless, a comment about #1 on your list of 5 important things on P/L selection.
this year I have handicapped 250 races which are mostly stakes and high optional claimers. out of those 250 47 horses with layoffs of 80 days or more have ran. I use 80 instead of 90. out of that 47 there have been 19 winners and 28 losers for a win % of 40.4. Also about 80% of my races are on the turf.....thought this might be of interest......Randy A.

In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!