12/03/14: Pen 8th

[PeteC]

Here's a race for the matchers this Wednesday....

[chuckg]

Two Earlies 4 and 10

4 has beaten 10 in tandem.

4 is faster to 2nd call at 22.6 46.2

Match 4 against OTE looking for horses that can run against today's pace and can win from third.



7 and 12 are closest positionally and show a power move from third. 12 is closer than 7.

Bet 4 to Win and 12 to W/P because higher odd.

[Bill Lyster]

My earlies in this race are the 4-5-6-8-10-12. In this field only the 3, 7 and 9 have won from 4th or farther back. The 12 could press but there looks to be more early running in him than press running. He is dropping in class and both LRL and PIM are slightly slower tracks than PENN. I just think there's too much speed here for him to win. That being said, if the track speed figures are correct he could be speed of the speed.

I expect a pace of 22.2-46.1-58.4 taken from the head to head duel engaged by the 4 and 10 on Oct. 10th. Both fought head to head to the finish.

The 1,2,5 6 and 11 are slow and the 2 will not be anywhere near the lead in this race. The 8, 3 back pushed a faster 2nd fraction and faded, 6 back ran this pace, but can't get lead in stretch

The 3 won in very slow time, out; didn't close in last to be competitive

The 7 closed from 4th in last to beat the front running 4, has a win 5 back at a faster pace from the same positioning.

The 9 finished 3rd, from 8th in the head to head tandem and won its last from 5th. Too slow.


I note that the 12 is 0-12 at this distance and that the 1 is 5/15 at 6f with 4 places and that the 8 is 9/27 at 6f with 6 places - perhaps something to think about exotically.

I am boxing the 7 and 12

[Bill Lyster]

I made this last point in the previous post because of something that happened this last weekend at Woodbine. And wouldn't you know it was capitalized upon by Pat Parente, one of the Hats earlier students, now a trainer.

Saturday November 29th, race 7 was a 7 furlong race for C16000 horses. After scratches there were 7 entrants. I will list them with their 7 furlong records only.

1 SP: 21-6-2-2
2 S: 12-3-1-3
3 E: 7-2-2-0
4 SP: 5-0-1-2
5 S: 2-0-1-0
6 S: 1-0-1-0
8 E: 0-0-0-0

I saw the 1 and 5 benefiting from the killer pace duel of the 3 and 8. The 1 had just won in 123.60 so she was my pick.

The finish was 2-1-4, with the winner at 21:1. (did not have) Could not pick this horse off of PPs. Last few at 7f were 126.20, 126.60, 125.00 and 124.60.(win)

So horses for courses in a field of relatively unaccomplished horses at the distance. Don't forget to check!!!

[Bill Lyster]

scratch 4 and 11

[The Pook]

Pen Race 8

[vderdak]

#12 to win can run early or press

[mowens33]

Sorry did't have time to put my analysis together, but I'm looking early.

5 and 10

Mike

[Capcondo]

I didn't spend a lot of time with this race but I did notice the 12. For some reason, the 1st call at LRL and PIM is frequently very slow. The remaining fractions are frequently fast.

When these horses ship to other tracks like PEN, they seem to run faster first fractions. I have played around with shaving 2/5 of a second off the 1st quarter time and leaving the rest of the fractional times the same with mixed results. I try to avoid races where this kind of a situation exists.

If you look at the internal fractions of the 12, they are very fast. The 12 would be my choice here but only on paper.

Tim

[PeteC]

The 8 gets it done by a half length over the 12. Pook had the 8 as a third choice, but overall, no dice on this one. On to the next one...