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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 04-05-2017, 01:16 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Total Energy vs. TPR

Aren't these basically measuring the same thing? Granted, TPR uses the 2nd call and final fraction translated to a 100 point scale, while TE uses the sum of the three velocity fractions (1F+2F+3F).

I had been mixing TE analysis with TPR analysis, using the TPR screen as a way to weed out contenders. However, if TE is basically measuring the same thing as TPR, wouldn't the TPR screen basically be redundant? In other words, why confuse the situation if a certain set of numbers works for you?

I'm debating ignoring TPR completely and instead, simply using TE and the fractional velocities as a means of measurement.

Thoughts?
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Old 04-05-2017, 03:25 AM   #2
dlivery
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
Aren't these basically measuring the same thing? Granted, TPR uses the 2nd call and final fraction translated to a 100 point scale, while TE uses the sum of the three velocity fractions (1F+2F+3F).

I had been mixing TE analysis with TPR analysis, using the TPR screen as a way to weed out contenders. However, if TE is basically measuring the same thing as TPR, wouldn't the TPR screen basically be redundant? In other words, why confuse the situation if a certain set of numbers works for you?

I'm debating ignoring TPR completely and instead, simply using TE and the fractional velocities as a means of measurement.

Thoughts?
Would kindly post a screen shot of the close callings
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Old 04-05-2017, 08:06 AM   #3
Mitch44
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Jeebs:

The ratings are different in that TPR employs a deceleration factor in the 3rd FR which
most are unaware of. The FPS doesn't and are raw figures, deceleration with FPS is within the V/DC formula. The V/DC uses all 3 FR's and is a much more sophisticated formula because it can measure FX and some other factors which can't be measured with TPR.

One of the big reasons so many like TPR is because of its simplification by using a 100 point scale and a length equals one point. In FPS what is the difference between 57.79 and 56.10????? This can be figured out with a hand calculator with knowing the distance being measured, its extremely tedious and prone to mistakes. If computerized its no longer tedious and mistake proof. You only do the work once to write a formula. Why the "Doc" never converted FPS to a 100 scale? I would surmise it had to do with his passing because its not an impossible task and not that complex. Americans as a whole are oriented by the 100 scale and they easily understand a 92 is better than a 89 especially if it uses a 1 point per beaten length formula. BTW 1 point per beaten length is totally incorrect but is used consistently therefore its consistently wrong,and works. FPS is more accurate for beaten lengths.

Many horses can be rated which is why some horses have both red and blue sticks for E & S, even through their better at one or the other. Jocks and trainers use this depending on the speed in todays race or match up.Early horses that get in trouble or break poorly in the 1st Fr can transfer that energy to the 3rd FR and still get up for the win.

If I had to choose only one it would be FPS because its measurements of beaten lengths is much more accurate and by incorporating the 1st FR other ratings like FX can be incorporated. (which is only one factor that the 1st Fr can be used for and there are others.) As Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw stated so eloquently " The race starts when the gates open."

To be honest with you I look at and use both as I perceive things from both. I also am one that can visualize better with a 100 point scale. Even through FPS is incorporated into ranking I would prefer to see them on a 100 point scale. I mean how much difference is there between a rank of 1 & 2. According to the "Doc" the answer is always one(1). He stated he hated line scores because they never depict the real difference.

Both of them get a bevy of winners in the top 3. I always consult TPR as a starting point of my evaluation but as I said if I had to choose only one, hands down Total Energy and all 3 Fr's is best. In both look for gaps and use for direction in other readouts to comprehend the factors and readouts.

Jeebs to answer your original question for weeding out non contenders I would use Total Energy for the reasons as stated above.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-05-2017 at 08:17 AM.
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Old 04-05-2017, 09:38 AM   #4
froggy
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Using TPR one can easily eliminate horses that are being bet and can't win.
For example at your track @ 6f horses that can't do a 85 early win maybe 1% of the time.
On the other end those with maybe an 89 or less late don't get there either.
This is explained in the book and more fully on the tapes from I believe the Las Vegas Seminars.
Tom and Dick who wrote the book used them exclusively and were very successful.

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Old 04-05-2017, 11:37 AM   #5
Mitch44
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froggy:That's not necessarily true as it depends on the other horses in the race & match up of contenders. That 85 early could be a sustained horse that has a superior 3rd FR and can win and the 89 late horse may be a superior early horse with a high figure that the others can't overcome. Their numbers have to be in context of the others in the race.
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Old 04-05-2017, 11:53 AM   #6
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by dlivery View Post
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Would kindly post a screen shot of the close callings
Certainly. In this screenshot, I would guess that the imbalance between TE and TPR in this instance is like what Mitch suggested, which was the Deceleration factor of the 3F in TPR. Note that the top TPR was a 7F turf sprint at BEL (not a "comparable" turf race) while the rest of the horses had 1m - 1 1/16m lines. For full disclosure, this is coming from the "Last Line" for example purposes, so I'm not concerning myself with "comparable" or "non-comparable" at this particular time.

Name:  TETPR.JPG
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The way I had originally demonstrated my process in previous postings/videos, once I had selected my lines, I would eliminate the bottom TE runners and then refer to TPR. In the first screenshot (again, this is an example, I have not handicapped this race. I am using "Last Line" as a demonstrative measure), I can remove 3-4-6-8-13 (bottom TE runners) with no problem. However, when you get to the 5th/6th TE runners, they are separated by a tenth of a point. Splitting hairs. Culling the runner blindly (without supporting guidance) would be short sighted. You can do one of two things. 1) leave the top 6 alone and evaluate them for your wagers however you choose (i.e. BLBL/Rx.) or 2) if you desire to narrow the scope of potential wagering decisions, then you would need to go to another screen.

In the TPR screen, our 6th ranked TE horse (#7) is the TOP TPR runner, while the 5th ranked horse on TE (#2) is 5th on TPR. Assuming all was equal (which it really is not, as #7's last line is a non-comparable line), I would consider eliminating #2 as a contender since TPR didn't just split a hair, it pulverized it.

But back to the original question I posed, which was whether TE and TPR are essentially attempting to quantify the same thing, albeit slightly different? If it is, then I am basically using a different version of what really amounts to be the same handicapping principle to split the 5th and 6th ranked runners. It would make more sense (to me anyway) to use other "tools in the box" to make the final call. In this case, the "Energy" screen would accomplish that, as #7's FX, L/EP and TPP "light up" as a Top 3, while #2's do not. Even evaluating the "Velocity" screen for PoH (or "Segments", which will quantify that Velocity screen into a visual aid), #7 outperforms #2 handily.

So in this case, TPR did support the elimination of #2, but I felt that it validates the need to examine the other screens for further validation. By doing this, I was able to paint a clearer picture of the respective horse's abilities. It made the horses "come alive" if you will.

Again, I did not actually handicap this race. I was merely using the "Last Line" as a default to give the example. I have no idea what the array would appear to be once proper pacelines are selected.
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Old 04-05-2017, 11:57 AM   #7
Bill V.
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Simple and what YOU feel

Hi Jeebs,
Both Mitch and froggy mentioned positive reasons why I prefer TPR
1, is simplicity I do much better seeing a 100 scale number than a 3 digit Total energy
number or fps numbers.

2, Match up
I can quickly see the match up based on who has the top 2 epr and top 2 lpr.

Which is better TE or TPR ? To me they are both excellent , SO, I use the one
I feel most comfortable with , to me that supersedes everything .

Good Skill
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Old 04-05-2017, 12:59 PM   #8
Mitch44
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The #7 in this case appears to be a one run closer. Based on his Tot. En. he's poor in the 1st FR., average somewhat in the 2nd FR. and doubtful at best he can run the same 3rd FR because he has to go an extra full furlong. The win contenders are the 10-5-9-1-2 in that order.

However as Jeebs said this is all for nothing till one picks and finalize their lines then some real decisions can be made. Then starting with this screen and confirming with other screen readouts. Such as BLBL which will eliminate most of these low velocity horses.( low Tot. En. & low TPR.) to 6 if playing a Tri.,5 if playing an ex. or 4 if playing only to win. Without real lines it would be dangerous to eliminate horses at this time without final lines. One can get there a lot faster just picking the correct lines to begin with. BLBL can even separate horses with the exact same Tot. En. because of how they run and moves within a race etc.
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Old 04-05-2017, 05:28 PM   #9
Mitch44
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I did this race being I did the 2nd that Jeebs posted. This race shows the importance of picking pace lines. The # 3 is the worse horse of this snap shot with the lowest Tot. En. & lowest TPR. If one eliminates off this procedure your going to lose races. I gave the # 3 Line 3 and it came up number one on BLBL and towered over the field with a nice gap and even after giving every horse in the field a line.

The 3 won and paid $6.00. I had a hard time separating the other horses as they were very close. I couldn't seem to get a handle for the correct order for place . I passed the race. The #4 got place ,which I didn't have in my top 5.

Lesson here is only eliminate horses off of proper pace lines not off of the fulcrum. Bill V. picks lines after the fulcrum, then eliminates. Trust your feeling and pass a race, there is always another race.

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Old 07-26-2017, 10:01 AM   #10
delayjf
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Quote:
The ratings are different in that TPR employs a deceleration factor in the 3rd FR which most are unaware of.
That's news to me, I always considered TPR as another version of sartin, sustained pace.
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