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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-07-2016, 01:22 PM   #1
kpmats10
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History of the Methodology

I'm feeling a bit reflective. Maybe I'm just licking my wounds from a brutal weekend at the BC. But can I get a history lesson?

I was first introduced to incremental breakdowns of a race and pace handicapping when I picked up the revised edition of Modern Pace Handicapping 10 years ago. I read it, studied it, and have been applying the concepts laid out within it since. Some successes have been reached that would've not been possible without the knowledge in the book. I actually paid a hefty sum to have a custom program written to apply the mathematical formulas and make various adjustments in the book.

Come to find this website and I signed up some time ago and never really took advantage of all the material laid out here. I'm here because I want to be a winning player. But where does one start? Come to find out reading all the material here there is much more to the Methodology and practice of pace handicapping than just Brohamer's book. When trying to read through the manuals and Follow Up's, there's a lot of info in there on systems, programs, etc that aren't clearly explained in previous issues; how to use the programs, what the readouts mean, etc and most of which are obsolete. Even paceline selection seems to have many different rules and applications that has changed over and over.

I'm trying to be a winning player. I want to improve my ROI. This year, I'm showing a flat bet profit on win and double wagers. I'm trying to learn self discipline to focus on only those wagers and focus on non maiden races.

My main question here is, if you are about to jump into this concept brand new, where would you recommend someone start? What is obsolete in terms of manual readings? What is relevant today and how do you find updated information?

I'm not afraid to do the work to get to where I want to be. But I feel lost in a big world, if that makes any sense.
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Old 11-07-2016, 04:48 PM   #2
Mitch44
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I understand your dilemma completely. The present RDSS program and the new one that Ted is working on contain everything in one place. E.g. Pace Makes the Race, Brohamer's book , the Match Up, FPS calculations, % Median, calculations to consistently convert difference distances to today race distance etc. etc. etc.

Ted recommends reading only the later issues of the Follow Up to lessen the confusion. Only those that been around many years have the ability to sort through the old FU's and can determine what's relevant and what's isn't. It can help one to determine how something evolved to today concepts but probably confuses the hell out of most, because some of that stuff was incorporated into other programs and also improved on while some was just eliminated. The "Doc" always said that you don't really need to know a formula to make it work I.e. you don't need to be a mechanic to drive a car or a computer geek to operate a computer and there in lies the rub that people just can't get away from.

In a forum setting such as this there are a variety of opinions and a newcomer doesn't know what to believe or whom. Many have latched onto things and refuse to accept later concepts and teaching. All this has a negative effect on someone trying to learn and I'm sure contributes to a high number of failures. What to do?

Personally I'd like to see the teachers and most experience members comb through every Follow Up and blacken out any thing that has been superseded, outdated or has been replaced. I e. get rid of % Early and only leave the later improvement of % Median which used all 3 fractions and improved it greatly. I do however think TPR while only using SC and 3rd FR. is still a valid concept and a springboard for beginners to other later programs. As far as the site it needs to be cleaned up and erroneous comments and outdated ones need to be removed. Perhaps separate opinion stuff or Breeders Cup stuff from actual facts, formulas and current stuff. One hell of a monumental task.

To get you off on the right foot I would suggest you read any comment, post and stuff written by Ted. Ted is overwhelmed now with the new program but perhaps in the future can put all his posts etc. in one place and eliminate the old stuff from years ago that may not be current.

Conceptually it comes down to:1. picking contenders, 2.picking pace lines, 3.readout interpretation and 4.record keeping. Good luck kpmats10.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-07-2016 at 04:50 PM.
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:00 PM   #3
kpmats10
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Thank you Mitch for your detailed thoughts
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Old 11-07-2016, 11:58 PM   #4
Mark
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Jim Bradshaw's Match Up

I have been at this game for over 50 years. I have tried just about everything. Going on 4 years ago I found the Hat Check blog. I read and reread, studied and practiced what was taught there by Jim through Richie P. Started with Jim's 5 step approach and moved on to the more sophisticated stuff gradually. The most important thing I learned was how horses win races. What is happening in the race that determines the outcome. This is not about number crunching or databases. It is a matter of finding the fastest horses or due to the pace contention in the race, who becomes the fastest horse at the wire. People will tell you all sorts of things but until you can watch a race and recognize what is happening and why the winner won, the best software in the world won't help. Pace makes the race, we know that. But how can I see what that will entail before the race? Will an Early horse get to the lead quickly and be unchallenged? There's your winner. Will the Early horse have to fight his way to the lead and repulse challenges, that is not your winner. If you can project the 1st and 2nd call times that will be run today you will know who will be in front and where the rest of the horses will be. Many times in the posts Richie put up there is the saying from Jim, "Bet the horse closest to the leader positionally, factoring in the pace of today's race"! So if you determine that the winner will not go gate to wire, because of the pace scenario, then look at the Pressers, if they are crappy and can't get to the lead and sustain their effort, then look at the S/Ps. Rarely will an S horse win unless everyone else in front of him is exhausted by the early pace. Forget about all this other stuff and determine where each horse will be at the 1st call. Understand that horses are creatures of habit just as we are and they want to be in certain positions at the 1st call to give their best efforts. That is there Running Style, they are comfortable there. Look at the form and find out what position the horse normally occupies at the 1st call when he wins or runs very close. Read Bradshaw's definitions of Running Styles and memorize them. Work the 5 step approach until you see it in your dreams. Only the few extremely dedicated handicappers will stick with it, so you have a huge challenge. It has taken me nearly 4 years to figure it out and then to use RDSS2 to implement it. But I'm a stubborn SOB and I like money! Good Luck!!
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:29 PM   #5
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I've been with the Methodology since 1990 and have seen the evolution take place. I would say to read the follow ups that Ted recommends then work on contender and paceline selection until you can get the winner in your top 5 around 90%of the time. Next decide which approach you feel the most comfortable with the matchup approach of Jimmy B or the compounded ratings that DOC recommended in the later years. If you decide to use RDSS you will able to see both. Both approaches work fine if you enter the true contenders and predictive pacelines. I suggest you keep records and/or track models and profiles. In short establish your comfort zone, and don't be afraid to ask question on this site. Good luck.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:53 PM   #6
Bill V.
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100 %

Quote:
I've been with the Methodology since 1990 and have seen the evolution take place. I would say to read the follow ups that Ted recommends then work on contender and paceline selection until you can get the winner in your top 5 around 90%of the time. Next decide which approach you feel the most comfortable with the matchup approach of Jimmy B or the compounded ratings that DOC recommended in the later years. If you decide to use RDSS you will able to see both. Both approaches work fine if you enter the true contenders and predictive pacelines. I suggest you keep records and/or track models and profiles. In short establish your comfort zone, and don't be afraid to ask question on this site. Good luck.
Tim G
Tim

I could not agree more,
Simple and to the point,

Good Skill
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Old 11-08-2016, 06:45 PM   #7
Tim Y
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No amount of insight, practice or even LUCK can overcome the HISTORICAL difficulty of the closely matched and UNKNOWN qualities of the many potential champions on Breeder's Cup day.

To bet that card is to deny reality of how close EACH contest is.
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Old 11-08-2016, 09:28 PM   #8
atkinsrr
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Tim Y you are so right....I treat the BC as I do any other day of the year...making money to me is more important than betting races...2 days of BC races and I only bet 2 races the whole BC and hit them both....Race 7 Downhill turf I had to bet 3 horses to win #2 Obviously #9 Alot #12 OM #2 Obviously was 5/1 when I made the bet and he got bet heavily near post time but still paid $9.60 Race 11 I had to bet 3 horses to win again #5 Tourist #8 Tepin #9 Ironicus.....Tourist is a horse that I have followed for a long time and has been in 9 G1 races out of his last 10 starts ...he;s the won that made my day couldn't find any other races that I wanted to bet so I just watched
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Old 11-09-2016, 11:46 AM   #9
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kpmats10 View Post
I'm feeling a bit reflective. Maybe I'm just licking my wounds from a brutal weekend at the BC. But can I get a history lesson?

...
The Sartin Methodology is a study of horse race analysis and betting practice which Doc Sartin conducted over 25+ years and which has been going on now for over 40 years. It is still going on today: RDSS is a part of the history of the Sartin Methodology. In 2001, at the end of Doc's work, RDSS was known as Validator - in other words, RDSS (a modern Windows-based program) completely and accurately includes Validator, the culmination of Doc's work (along with much else which is still highly congruent with Doc's approach).

Doc's work started with the 'legendary' group of truck drivers convicted of gambling offenses in the late 70s. By whatever poetic stroke of insight and phraseology, he came up with the thesis 'the cure to losing is winning'. It became the motto of the Methodology and lead to all subsequent fact-based enquiries, including the collaboration of many brilliant minds, to prove and elaborate on that idea. Line scores, track class levels, velocity ratings, The Matchup, track profiles and decision (Brohamer) models, point-based Early/Late ratings (TPR), incremental energy disbursement, deceleration, weighted line scores ...

Each subsequent line of enquiry created a foundation for the next enquiry. With each phase, Doc sought to make the process simpler and more straightforward for those interested in making money and checking their egos in the process - without ever succumbing to the simple easy system-seller rules approach of get-rich-quick artists and childish gamblers' fantasies. Anyone who knew Howard, knew ONE thing at least: he CARED about people; he cared about their experience and success in this particular domain, and he cared even more deeply about those who were serious about understanding and applying the ideas he and the group had uncovered. I think he cared more deeply about that than about making money selling software, subscriptions and seminars. Even if he sometimes doubted it in his final years, on that very basis of caring and love alone - he died a very rich man.

So -- it is inconceivable to me that his later works in the Methodology including his final efforts on Validator (and thus --> RDSS) would willfully EXCLUDE useful and valuable tools from earlier phases. He thought Validator was all you needed. Here is what he thought in 2007 about RDSS.

Thus -- if anyone wants to simply dig in and start using the culmination of 40 years of Doc Sartin's thinking on horse racing analysis and betting -- they should simply pay a modest annual fee and start using RDSS. As mentioned, it includes the various flavours and phases of Doc's work. If anyone wants to try out RDSS 2.1 (under development, warts and all) just ask.

All the foregoing built in numbers and adjustments, plus good software tools, has permitted us to use a large measure of automation to select representative pacelines and make Contender choices (although: individual freedom of choice is ALWAYS permitted, for better or for worse). RDSS 2.1 has a new factor Rx, itself a weighted line score of other line scores and other factors like Class (a new and better Class rating), Consistency, public opinion, Early/Late bias. These alone help you get the winner in the Top 4 75-80% of the time (depending on race type and field size) and 80-90% Top 5 -- at better final odds by rank, than Morning Line odds, post time odds or any previous composite factor rank in Methodology history. Out of the box, you start with high level rankings of true contenders: then your work begins, finding good pools to wager in, assessing whether a given race or multi-race wager is priced to your advantage, given the unknowns.

I appreciate those who have favourite aspects of the various phases of the Methodology, and The Matchup. We all have history and affection for that history, and/or we all have particular and individual styles of learning or ways of seeing and understanding. We all have inherent biases towards what works, or at least what works best for us. I would not tell ANYONE that the way they apply the Methodology, using RDSS to do it or not, is inferior to another way. Thankfully, not much advice is necessary: our wager records tell the incontrovertible tale, if sometimes an uncomfortable one.

I got a new car last year, a sporty red Nissan Juke, goes fast (sometimes too fast ...) very fun to drive, very safe and functional in Canadian winters. It's not a Tesla or Humvee, but it is pretty much near the culmination of 120 years of automotive engineering. If the 'apocolypse' comes - I could not reproduce that car myself, I don't really understand combustion engines let alone petroleum exploration and refinement, nor do I understand modern medicine, nor jet airplanes, nor computer transistors and hard drives or how the internet and web servers are truly put together in a functional manner. I mean -- while I USE all these modern tools to live my life, and while I even have a passing interest in the HISTORY of these conveniences, really - what I want is to employ them to get a job done or to live a lifestyle.

I say -- forget about the past history of the Methodology and focus on the 'current history'. I agree, all the Follow Ups and manuals and audios and videos can be too much, except for long term study, understanding how we got here from there, and delving for nuggets of improvement (which ARE there to be found). There needs to be an Archive somewhere on the internet about what Doc did. But I suspect Doc would say that it could lead to too much confusion: start with and stick to current tools (and DID say precisely that in almost every later Follow Up).

We have GREAT analysis tools - better now than in Doc's day, and likely they will get even better. We really don't need many better factors and ratings. My focus in RDSS 2.1, and what will ultimately determine its release schedule sometime next year, is the following broad areas: 1) record keeping, 2) wager construction and submission, 3) deeper tote board and money flow analysis. Those, together with the existing superior and largely automated analysis tools, are how to profit at horse race betting.

You are warmly welcomed to make as much use of these as you wish!

Take care, good luck, good skill!

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-09-2016 at 12:38 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 11-09-2016, 12:05 PM   #10
Lt1
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Whether we are successful or not when playing BC races isn't really what this thread is about. KPM is asking for input about how to become a successful investor. We should stay on point since there are other members who maybe struggling like most of us did when we first joined the Methodology. Let those of us who have gained a level of success share how we were able to do so. In the past years a lot of us were fortune enough to attend seminars or to call teaching members and other members who were doing well and pick their brains to up our game. This forum and thread provides the opportunity to give something back. We have seen it in the past with folks like Ted, Bill V, Richie P, FTL and others sharing their knowledge. Let's do it again.
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