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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2 |
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10-13-2016, 07:36 PM | #21 | |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Quote:
My point is that UNLESS YOU SEE A WORKOUT, you know very little of what went on during that move, Not enough, in the long run, to continually draw consistent conclusions. Did the work take place on a mile track or a smaller training track (training facilities in the nearby area and unreported)? With the advent of hydrotherapy, many "ouchy" horses are bypassing works for swimming and that is never reported. Slow moves, for exercise, are not reported either and are listed as having "fallen off the tab," by the clockers. They worked and yet it goes unreported. If fitness, or race ready status is being predicted by data that is that variable, how can it be that reliable? Did they work alone? in company?, before or after the break when the track was re-worked?, were they medicated with therapeutic, though banned race day medications like broncholdilators?, what was their rider's weight?, where on the track did the horse work? (what lane, as often they start a work in one lane and finish in another), what tack was used (many a time harsh run out bits, used in the AM,but banned in the races, are used for training purposes only). Young horses often work in company to teach them the lessons of running INTO dirt in their face, new equipment, and/or running inside work mates..and the majority of those works tend to be slower. Does one draw a conclusion that a slower work was less important a work without knowing WHY? QUESTIONS QUESTIONS QUESTIONS making this information source without a consistent sample space. Only when data is draw from the same initial conditions can the results be evaluated consistently. Sample error remains one of the largest errors in statistical analysis. When we use the OBJECTIVE data of pace of a race then compare the entrants, it is there without subjectivity. Not so workout information.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 10-13-2016 at 07:38 PM. |
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10-14-2016, 02:18 PM | #22 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Hi Bill L So far at Santa Anita the SRW/HWL1/SWG pattern has only 3 winners in all races It did much better at Del Mar Here are the winners from the past DMR meet, which had the SRW/HWL1/SWG pattern, I have highlighted the winning price Col I - Lots of nice prices , Bill V. |
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10-14-2016, 02:29 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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yeah, for some strange reason the cited workout combo paid really well at DMR when the horse was not a top 5 ML choice. For sure there were a couple of low-medium prices but the average was over 7/1 if memory serves me correctly.
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10-14-2016, 02:52 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I always thought racing was a stochastic event. In fact there are always many unknown that a player must deal with I.e. can this horse stretch out, is this router fast enough to cut back in distance and win, can this trainer have a horse ready after a layoff etc.
Fact of the matter is that through patterns of trainers or angles such as workouts we can mine nuggets that others miss. The more knowledgeable we are the greater the edge overs less astute players. Really many ways to skin a cat and they all won't reward the miner however record keeping and investigation does pay $$$$$. Fact of the matter is ; if you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown. If new to RDSS maintain records of your results to expose a weakness weather its contenders, pace lines ,factors or a poor betting plan. Again great example Bill V. and Bill Lyster on your workout study, I'm sure you'll garner some gems from it. Looking for a corollary such as trainer to the workout is a big step. Workouts also remain an area where the public remains unsophisticated today.Good luck. Mitch44 |
10-14-2016, 05:21 PM | #25 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Class and trainers
I'm with you 100% Mitch
Class and trainers ,, In the words of Bill Parcels great NFL HOF coach "You are what your record says you are" The top owners hand their horses to the top trainers These top trainers have patterns, and with record keeping, plus their expert skills, they place these horses in the best races to fit their abilities. In race 7 on Monday P. Miller had his FTS ready with an excellent workout pattern, He is a top trainer with FTS's In Race 7 , These were the other entrants trainers. Their records for DMR summer 2016 and SA 9/30-10/10 . In Maiden Special Weight races only Trainers- Tracks # of winners #of FTS winners = MSW races 6, Peter Miller DMR 3 winners 2 FTS - SA 1 winner FTS 3, Jerry Hollendorfer DMR 2 winners both MSs 63 statebred only - SA 2 winners 1 FTS 4, John W. Sadler DMR 2 winners SA 1 winner 2, George Papaprodromou DMR 1 winner - SA no winners 9, Bob Baffert DMR 8 winners 5 FTS's - SA 1 winner FTS 1, Charles S. Treece DMR 0 winners - SA no winners 5, Scott Hansen DMR 1 winner - SA no winners 7, Michael Pender DMR 0 winners - SA no winners 8, Richard Baltas DMR 2 winners 2 FTS - SA no winners 10, Mike Puype DMR 1 winner -SA 1 winner FTS winning trainers Miller P 4 winners Hollendorfer J. 1 winner Sadler J. None Paparodromou G. None Baffert B. 9 winners Treece C. None Hanson S. None Pender M. None Baltas R. 2 winners Puype M. none |
10-15-2016, 01:47 AM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill:
You failed to mention that nugget paid $11.80 and was a nice key to an Ex, DD & P-3. BTW you get to keep the $$$$ When you find an edge like this it'll pay as long as the guy is around. Now you won't win every one but the ROI will be nice. Accessing the other trainers within the race made this one even more of a standout. Mitch44 |
10-15-2016, 10:30 AM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Summary maiden info from DMR
I hid the rows of data to show the summary info. The 1st 34 races were won by FTS; the next 60 races had FTS entered, but none of them won; the last 30 races were maiden races without FTS.
FTS maidens with the SRW/HWL/SWG workout pattern won 7 races at average odds of over 15/1 (surprisingly 3 of the 7 were top five ML). There were 32 horses that had this combined workout pattern, so the win rate was 18.8% (right col labeled TED1) Notice how winning FTS dominate the SW, GW, HWL, SAR and SWG workout categories relative to the other two types of races. See that well meant FTS have a Gate Work (GW) 38.2% of the time whereas winners of races that included losing FTS had none and 'experienced' maidens rarely had a gate work after their first or subsequent races. The column labeled ML is for morning line odds; #R is ML rank. Winning FTS were in the top 5 ML 25 out of 34 times; in races with FTS that DID NOT WIN, the winning maiden was top 5 ML 57/60 races! In maiden races without FTS, the winner was top 5 ML 25/30 times. Disclaimer: this is DMR this last summer. Your track might have different percentages or even some added workout designations that are profitable. Go find them and report back, PLEASE. Last edited by Bill Lyster; 10-15-2016 at 10:32 AM. |
10-15-2016, 12:12 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill Lister:
While we have already discussed GW and some other things, two things jump out at me with this data and that is FPD and the 5F distance. Most players fail to realize the amount of preparation to even get a horse to a race let alone to win it, regardless of the type of race. As much as two months even if just starting, of course if steadily racing that time is shorter. But very long layoffs and FTS this becomes a key corollary. The FPD definitely indicates readiness. The 5F distance is a key because young horses tend to be as fast as older horses but do not have their stamina. Or in other words they show this by poor 3rd FR's. This is easily visible on big race days when top 2 yr olds run on the same days as older horses and even on Breed. Cup days. So they already show classical speed but lack the stamina of older horses. Their stamina grows as their 3 yr, old takes off particularity later in the year such as this time of the year for 3 yr olds. So what all this tells us is that very good and smart trainers debut their FTS at 5 F which helps insure a win verses longer distances. Using this as a corollary and sticking to races shorter than 6 F increases the chances of success. The more corollaries the better the horse and bet and the lower odds you can accept. Compared to others and the fewer the corollaries the greater odds you should demand because the risk is greater. Note: see Bill V. nice $11.80 horse. Without all this information I demand 9-1 on any FTS, lower my bet and try to take advantage of a LS with a small DD or Ex bet. Getting over $200 for these bets is nice. Nice work Bill L. Mitch44 |
10-15-2016, 04:00 PM | #29 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Mitch: Just for clarification purposes the 5f and 6f in the table of my previous post refers to workouts at those distances. Your point about running FTS horses shorter distances is born out by the stats below. Note how most of the 2 YO FTS won at either 5 or 5.5 furlongs, with a few at 6 furlongs. I posted this in an early post near the start of the thread, but it might not have been clear because sometimes this site does not accept formatting from copied and pasted media. (and it did not accept it this time earlier.)
Anyway, for example, FTS won 18/33 races at 5.5 furlongs, where two YO won these races greater than 50% of the time (6/14 + 10/12=16/26 races). For clarity purposes I have stated the race length and the total number of FTS wins (5 furlongs 2 out of 7, in this case both 2 YO) the wins are separated by 2YO mdn claimers, 2YO MSW; 3yo mdn clmers; 3yo MSW 2YO MCl - 2YO MSW - 3YO MCl - 3YO MSW 5.0 - 2/7 1/3 1/2 0/1 0/1 5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2 6.0 - 8/23 1/4 5/8 1/6 1/5 6.5 - 2/4 0/0 1/3 0/0 1/4 |
10-15-2016, 07:35 PM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The distance factor is something from my experiences with these type races. It also applies to 3 yr. olds early in the year(Jan. thu. July).
Hell of a drop off after 5.5 F even through they are all facing the same conditions. It takes exceptional trainers to win at longer distances, even more so at routes. But they do exist and it pays to know a trainers capabilities and limitations. I use BRIS PP's in conjunction with RDSS PP's as I can determine more from them with trainer data being just one item. Best of luck. Luck equals preparation meeting destiny. Mitch44 |
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