History of the Methodology

[Dorianmode]

Originally Posted by mowens33

Hey, Doc I would love too have your Excel sheet!

Thanks, Mike

Sure. Just PM me your email, and I'll send it to you. I'll clean it up a little and add a few directions ... then just ask me if you have questions when you see it.

[Dorianmode]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr.

One thing I meant to mention was, that the Kelly Criterion (number) that his formula will produce, (which he either discovered, or realized worked .... he was an engineer for the great, famous Bell Labs, ... he noticed that the formula for the most efficient way to transmit electricity in electrical lines was also a formula for the most efficient way to grow a pool of investment money). Anyway the number the formula kicks out is WAY to high to use on a practical basis for actual wagering ... and this has long been recognized. Huey says in his piece to bet some fraction of it. For example, if your 2 horse win rate is 60 %, and your payoff rate for those is 1.20, then the Kelly number is 0.27. No one in their right mind would bet 27 % of their bankroll. So it's a very useful number to tell you how (and if) a wagering line of data is profitable, and how much so, but just as a disclaimer ... use the numbers to see how profitable your race sets are, not to determine how much of a bankroll to actually bet ... as if you're good, the Kelly can be high (like 50 % or more, and that's not a way to wager).

[papajohn3times]

Hello again to all
Just wondering if anyone has ideas about judging a horses current form or even more confusing,is when he is ready to go off form
I do try to avoid high variants and a horses best line if it from a 5 year old or up
Doc said to see if his or her % median is increasing race to race and whether or not his total energy is lowering
Great advice but you have to look at the race and try to visualize if there was a reason for example decling total enrgy such as wrong surface,distance,track condition whatever.
So does anyone have any hints to look for when a horse has peaked and usually not run today's race as well as their last?
Thanks again guys and gals!
Papa John

[Mitch44]

Form is about the hardest thing of all to predict. As some said "its like trying to nail jelly to a tree" The best advise I can give you is to play two horses per race as it compensates for this somewhat along with other unknowns in racing.

Layoffs are easy as trainers records can be checked for their proficiency. Also the horses PP's, has he performed well after a layoff before? The higher class horses are a better bet than cheap claimers.

Lots of trainers will drop a horse in class to make up for its declining form, these are real tricky and normally don't win but can destroy ex., tri.'s etc. and can win also. Consider them an unknown factor and if you have two move on.

Form is also effected greatly by age and as horses maturity can effect form. Along with a trainers ability.
Good trainers claim horses from poor trainers and make a living at it. A trainers stats can be an indication of form as far as a horses placement and form cycle.A valid question always is,what is he doing and why? Also why is this horse in this race?


Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Form is about the hardest thing of all to predict. As some said "its like trying to nail jelly to a tree" The best advise I can give you is to play two horses per race as it compensates for this somewhat along with other unknowns in racing.

Layoffs are easy as trainers records can be checked for their proficiency. Also the horses PP's, has he performed well after a layoff before? The higher class horses are a better bet than cheap claimers.

Lots of trainers will drop a horse in class to make up for its declining form, these are real tricky and normally don't win but can destroy ex., tri.'s etc. and can win also. Consider them an unknown factor and if you have two move on.

Form is also effected greatly by age and as horses maturity can effect form. Along with a trainers ability.
Good trainers claim horses from poor trainers and make a living at it. A trainers stats can be an indication of form as far as a horses placement and form cycle.A valid question always is,what is he doing and why? Also why is this horse in this race?


Mitch44

Mitch Thank you. Your post is very helpful

Good Skill to you always
Bill