Layoffs

[Segwin]

In thinking about the 8th at Sar yesterday and how Central Banker came back, after a + 270 day layoff, to win by three got me wondering if even considering betting a race such as this is a waste of time.

Thoughts?

[DontSayDont]

It is the type of question that can only be answered by each player. The horse has shown an affinity for the surface/distance. Being ridden by Joel Rosario certainly has to be a positive reinforcement. Flying in the face of the methodology, what has the trainer done in the past with this type of horse. I believe Dr. Sartin did not believe in the trainer/jockey's when it came to picking winning horses.

Did the horse show any decent workouts or workout pattern that may have led you to believe he could run back to his older form?

Do you subscribe to the over a certain amount of days and the horse becomes a "no recent form" and enter no line?

So much of handicapping is how each of us personally decide on what line and when to enter those lines. That is why it is so hard for any/all of the RDSS program users to come up with the same horses in a race.

The result you receive (by your own records) with your handicapping style, is what you have to decide on how to find the best line.

[Mark]

A 250+ day layoff horse is of absolutely no interest to me at less than 5/1. I want some reward to take this risk and risk it is.A horse coming off the race track needs at least 30 days to be let down. They are too wound up to be put out in a paddock and at most will be turned out in a round pen where they can’t build up much speed because they are always turning. Conventional training methods will generally require 90 days to prepare a horse for his first race. The Cannon bone in their front legs has to be conditioned and strengthened to survive the stress of the pounding that occurs in racing. It actually changes from cartilage to bone in this process. So that tells you that it required a period of about 4 months of inactivity to heal whatever was wrong with the horse. That usually indicates some kind of surgery.Personally, I want to see at least 60 days of published workouts. Usually the bigger barns at the AAA tracks will show this activity but if you play at a minor track sometimes all you will see is one workout which is generally required by track management for a horse that has not raced in 60 days. The traditional approach is 3f works, generally two, progressing to 4f and then 5f. Some horses and trainers are adept at this while others require racing to get back into winning condition. Time of the works is less important than quantity, but generally you would like to see a work within 30 days of today’s race from the gate where the horse ran within 2 seconds of racing speed. That is generally the signal for the trainer to look for a race and since condition books are published 2 weeks in advance the trainer will find a race when he feels he has a fit horse.Candidly, the only way to gain some confidence in your ability to predict this type of thing is through practical experience. Get some good trainer stats and see what the trainer’s record is with layoff horses of the time period in question. Look carefully at the horse’s placement today. Generally if the horse is brought back at a claiming level higher than what he was successful at prior to the layoff, he is in for the exercise. The trainer is willing to lose the horse for a premium.Personally, I like to see a series of works such as 3f, 3f, 4f, 4f, 5f, 5f, and then speed work at 3f or 4f. That tells me the trainer is serious. However, you seldom see it. Spacing is not really all that important in the initial works as many trainers use two minute licks and other gallops in between the works. In fact, the works are basically to determine if the horse is progressing in his conditioning.
You will see tracks like WO where it is rare for a horse to win first out regardless of the works. WO is a synthetic surface and possibly that has some effect. Tracks that close for a period of 60 days or so in the winter such as Haw or Mnr really must be watched closely for several years to see what trainers have access to swimming pools during that period and within a few days their horses will be bet to favoritism when they win off the bench at a high percentage.
Keep records!!! If you win one out of 10 on paper then don’t take less than 10/1. Generally, sprinters are better bets than routers because fast Early horses are easier to prepare. It is harder to build the stamina of routers without a series of longer works.

[clore1030]

"Last race within 30 days" was one of those prime rules way back when I started handicapping, with the exception generally given to stakes caliber horses.

But from what I see, horses don't run as frequently as they did in those days and the rule is hardly as meaningful. I remember the Sullivan and Adams comment on the rule back in the mid-70s. They noted that while it seemed to be a way of eliminating non-contenders, that some incredibly high figure (say 75%) of horses had run within the last 30 days, so the "rule" really didn't have much impact. No doubt this had been observed by others, but this was the first time that I had seen it noted.

For me, it comes down to the odds and the trainer. Some can bring a horse back after an extremely long layoff, it can even be considered a specialty of some just as some seem to have a knack of scoring with first-time starters.

The horse that you're referring to was third choice in the betting at 4/1. I'd have probably wanted more than that, but since there was its layoff plus an entrant with no usable pace lines, for me that's a double-unknown and reason enough to just sit back and watch.

[For The Lead]

First, I'll just offer some statistical information from my database of more than 600,000 races and 5,000,000 horses.

Horses OFF more than 90 days win less than 5% of all races.

As far as whether or not to play a particular race is up to each individual.
CLORE1030 indicated he would not have played the race for two reasons...
1 - the horse OFF 250 days, and
2 - a horse with no running lines
This is a good and logical approach.
Somewhere in the methodology, I believe there is a guideline that says where there are 2 or more "unknown factors" (UF), the race should be passed. Again, a logical approach.
Trying to pick a winner is hard enough. Trying to pick a winner with multiple horses in the race without good information from which to evaluate those horses only compounds the problem.

[Lt1]

FTL you are correct with the 2 unknown factors to pass race That's right from the Doc. Yesterdays race was interesting to say the least. If one looked at the 4 as a contender you would see that the trainer wins 27% of the time with these types. The horse had raced on the grass twice with a win and a place and had been working out on a regular basis. Assuming he was returning from an injury he also had time to mature and grow. There were no world beaters in the race and if the trainer who is an excellent one felt his horse needed a race he could have found an easier non 2 spot to bring him back in. If nothing else I would have left the horse in for ex purposes.

[Mark]

I tried database handicapping 20 years ago. I spent 10 years with Ken Massa at HTR before finding Pace & Cap and RDSS2. I am intimately familiar with the Robot, Robot2 and now Robot3. I studied the Racing Form for years and that is why the RDSS2 format is so comfortable for me. Additionally, I doubt that you can write a query, with the parameters I have stated. I win about 1 in 4 and I don’t accept less than 5/1 on them. I chose to post my comments on this website because I felt that the readers needed a different perspective than what I was reading. I don’t subscribe to dogma. And it is not that I don’t have the highest regard for Doc Sartin and the many wonderful programs he published. From a boxing promoter to a Psychologist offering sincere help to those with a passion for handicapping Thoroughbred horse races, he impacted many peoples’ lives positively. When I first visited the Doc in Beaumont, he took me to lunch at a Mexican restaurant down the street and told me to keep my day job. I’m probably one of the few people who paid full price, $1,500, for Thoromation. I probably attended 5 to 6 seminars over the years, a number of them in Las Vegas. I learned Pace handicapping reading all the manuals and subscribing to the Follow Up. That is where I became acquainted with Jim Bradshaw and his Match Up.So I would prefer you not lecture me. I have been at this game since I hit my first wager, a Daily Double, at Del Mar in 1965. My folks raised Thoroughbreds in Northern California and we sold our select yearlings annually at Del Mar. I was 15 and my Grandmother actually had to place the bet for me. Paid $180 bucks. fficeffice" />>>

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Segwin

In thinking about the 8th at Sar yesterday and how Central Banker came back, after a + 270 day layoff, to win by three got me wondering if even considering betting a race such as this is a waste of time.

Thoughts?

Be careful with what I consider a mistake that NY players make-- avoiding horses with a layoff. You'll find yourself having problems if you play on the West Coast.

In the late fall, you'll find a number of horsejs in California that had shin problems as 2yr olds. They sometimes have been off for an extended periods of time. Maybe a year.

I think Mark has described their come backs very well. However high end connections often move the horse to a different trainer, to people that do this type of training. Generally, they burst train at 1 or 2 furlong, many times a week. And keep the over all work shorter than normal. I keep my eyes out for these in the fall. You'll see them run in high end MSW in S Cal as a two year old, and then there is a break. They come back in a little softer race. You might see them come back in a GG MSW, and in a short grass race, and with a morning rider and trainer you've never seen before. These are the types of horses that buy me new cars. The tip off is the high end breeder is the same. They've put a lot of money into a horse with a pedigree. They just want to get a win and they often do it 1st time out.

Another problem NY players will face is High end horses coming back after the triple crown. You'll be face with that in the Travers. You'll have to decide if horses such as Orb and Incognito are worth a bet( if they run.) Historically they both could light up the boards. Both will be factors this coming fall.

These are just a couple of example from my style of play. I generally stick with the higher purses.

[Segwin]

Nice to see you over here PM.

[Mark]

Layoff horses are a specialty endeavor. The only real way to obtain the knowledge to bet them successfully is to keep records. There are any number of reasons for a horse to be on the sidelines. Different maladies strike at different times in a horse’s career which require different remedies. However it only makes sense that if a horse is on the shelf of a prolonged period the connections think that the horse has some talent and they can make some money with them. Horses have to eat and be housed regardless of whether they are bringing in purse money. I view Layoffs of less than a year as a very positive event. In the majority of cases, you get a new animal that has been frolicking in the paddock while healing up. Their mind has been able to relax and generally their recuperation period returns the horse to in good mental and physical shape.
However, the opportunity exists, the first time since the horse’s first lifetime start, for the trainer to cash a nice win ticket on these horses at a big price. At smaller tracks with smaller barns you will find this to be more prevalent. So the only thing to do is to track that trainer for a year or so. Smaller barns don’t run that many horses so the published trainer stats don’t really pick these guys up. There’s a very good book by Mark Cramer that in part discusses this. It’s probably 20 years old now, I have to dig it out as my handicapping books got boxed up when we bought a new house and moved recently. If I remember the Saratoga race you were referencing, the horse was trained by Todd Pletcher. That horse met my criteria and he went off at 5/1. I was set to bet him when my wife came in and wanted to discuss the dinner menu for a Saturday night dinner party. When I turned back he was pulling away and winning by 4 or 5 lengths. Everything was right about that horse. Even his placement in a 7f race where the early fractions would be slower and the horse would have a good chance to get the lead. Todd Pletcher’s owners buy expensive well-bred horses and when they don’t cut the mustard he drops them and gets rid of them. If this horse stays sound he will be a useful animal.
One of the recommendations I would like to make to Ted is that he beef up the Trainer stats and Pedigree information for RDSS2. I pay an additional $119 a month to get this information from HTR.
Think for yourself! Until you know what you are doing keep records on this type of wager, follow the trainers and watch the races. There are barns that run their horses back into shape when they bring them back from the farm. There are barns that give the horse a race, usually a bid and fade job or a significant stretch gain but poor finish to build odds for their second start. Classic preparation is two sprints and a stretch-out or some variation. I spent about 8 years tracking these maneuvers but the rewards are great. Always remember that at the smaller venues the trainers bet their horses and cashing a nice win bet or exotic on a horse that the public can’t decipher the form on is necessary income for these guys to stay in business.