PEN - Nov 24

[Ted Craven]

Working some races at Penn National tonight with Barb C and sq764, hopefully a bit of a tutorial for sq and some fun and profits for Mum and me

All are welcomed to chime in, with emphasis on explaining line selection, contender analysis and wager decisions, if possible, thanks!

Race #1





Re #5 horse: used line #5, seeking a similar distance to today. Last was also 6f, but slower than capable of and no reason not to suspect still in same shape. Intervening races were short routes, 2nd back lead thru stretch and finished in top half.


Will check back closer to post. Using the live toteboard for additional guidance. No clue as to track/energy biases. Anyone?

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Race #2
4.5 f
Lot of Early pressure

[Ted Craven]

Race #3
8.3f route - only 1 proven router (#7)







Used #7's best ever sprint line as all others will be projected from their few sprint efforts. His last line route does him no favours, but those last 2 routes show his E/L balance as slightly Early (lone Early energy distribution). So, downgrade his top status a bit and he looks somewhat equal to the #2. One drawback to the #7 is - whether you use the last line route of the 4th line sprint, he's no better than 3rd ranked Total Energy - worrisome for a supposed top BL/BL.

Let's check the odds...

[Ted Craven]

Race #4

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Race #2
4.5 f
Lot of Early pressure

Attachment 18183

Attachment 18184

Attachment 18185

Hi Ted,

Not so hot at reading this level of racing - I believe actual handicapping may be required. But I kind of like the 4 to wire this field, although not at those odds. I would also play him over the 3 and 6, and maybe play the 6, at those odds, as a value bet. BTW, this is the track where you can bet after the race starts, so do you mind if I change my bet after the break :-)?

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Race #4

Attachment 18189

Attachment 18190

Difficult to look past at that price.

[Ted Craven]

Race #1



Wager decision: Win bets on #2 and #8, palce bet on #8
Exacta Box on 2,4,8

8 faced strongest 2nd call Pace of Race in both of its last 2 races. Good excuse for last...

[Ted Craven]

Race #1

#7 wins in the slop. #1 APV. Otherwise...

[Ted Craven]

Race #2

Win bets on #4 and #5 (at the odds).
Exacta Box on 2,4,5

Minor bet.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Ted,

Not so hot at reading this level of racing - I believe actual handicapping may be required. But I kind of like the 4 to wire this field, although not at those odds. I would also play him over the 3 and 6, and maybe play the 6, at those odds, as a value bet. BTW, this is the track where you can bet after the race starts, so do you mind if I change my bet after the break :-)?

BJ, I talked myself out of the 6, and the #4 was held higher when I bet it...

I'll put in another bet halfway through the race