The CL $7500 Non winner of 2 lifetime 5.5 furlongs

[Bill V.]

Yesterday at Parx Tyeste a recent maiden claiming race winner
won a CL 7.5 non winner of 2 lifetime race. The distance was 5.5 furlongs.
It ranked 4th on my readouts.
I did not bet it. I did not bet the race. The reason I passed was I
avoid this class race and in truth I thought the morning line favorite looked to
strong.

After the race 2 people emailed me

The first just said "we were way off"
The other email was filled with many helpful teaching lessons.

Basically what I got was that when I lose a race to a wild longshot
Its probably helpful to look for reasons why,
Looking back at races after the fact. and keeping records can make a missed
race helpful,

One of the most interesting facts I learned from the second email was
I never bet recent maiden winners at this level They just do not win that often

This got me thinking ,, At my home track Parx, The CL 7500 non winner of 2-L
is very low on the class ladder. Horses at this level don't have too many
options. They are already at the bottom.

I started to wonder, why a trainer would enter a recent maiden claimer
at such a low claiming price, The connections must not think that highly
of the horse to start out at this level right after winning its maiden race .

I went and checked my data base I checked all my 5.5 distance CL7500N2-L
races

I had a total of 31 such races 18 for females and 13 for males
I then checked how many horses were entered in this class race first time out after a maiden claiming win.
There were a total of 254 horses entered in these 31 races
There were 19 horses who won their maiden race in the last line.
12 females and 7 males
Only 19 maiden winners were entered in this class first time out after winning
their maiden races. This proved to me that these horses must not be very good to be place so low first out

Female horses did better than males. 3 of the 12 females won
None of the 7 males won

anyway yesterday Tyeste won at 31/1 It ranked 4th on my readouts
Was it a god bet ? or Is betting maiden claimers at the $7500 non winners of 2 a risky bet? My analysis say that although thanks to a $64 winner "in the long run " its probably best to avoid recent maiden winners at this level at least at the 5.5 distance .

[raceman5]

Bill what if you used his second line back to me the last line was an aberrant pace line 49 for the half on a muddy track don't think I would of used that line I don't have the software so I cannot test it. Just curious.

Bob

[Bill V.]

Hi Bob

The 2nd line is a even effort. I don't know but the 41 day layoff could be in big part to The tough December that Parx endured. Because of sick horses and bad weather. Parx basically was shut down all December.
I used line 1 because no matter what or how the horse won the race.
It overcame all the other horses in the race who all were running on the same track The problem with line 2 to me is its a 0 or maybe a (+) but against maidens.

BTW some other notes about non-winners of 2 life winning first time
against winners at this class,

In one of the race were a filly won the race was 6-1-13 race 2
Ten Pin Tide was coming off a 354 day layoff
The other winner Delaware Carets who won on 7-15-13 race 3 there
were 2 other maiden winners in that race so in a field of 6 horses 3 were maiden winners.

Also the average race class for 5.5 furlong Fillys at CL7.5 NW2-L
at Parx is 69 Male horses at this level have a ave RC of 81.
The race in which Tyeste won was only a 64 RC
So this was a weak field.

Bill