Parx 5-10 - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 05-10-2021, 12:54 PM

Trk Fast
R1 7256
R2 4372
R3 7351 LS6
R4 1485
R5 PASS WEAK MDNS
R6 4126
R7 PASS WEAK MDNS
R8 6938
R9 1A356
R10 621A3
R11 92611 LS7
GOOD LUCK
TIM

Lt1 · 05-10-2021, 02:37 PM

Dartboard lucks out.
May 10 1:42:07 PM Complete Parx Racing 3 Double $1.00 3,5,7/5-7 $9.00 $87.10 $78.10
Tim

rdiam · 05-10-2021, 03:24 PM

Tim:

Not following your results for the DD above: race 3-4 DD comes 5-6 to pay $87.10. I do not see the 6 horse as one of your contenders in race 4 or as part of your bet ticket. Typo? Thanks.

Richard

MJS6916 · 05-10-2021, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1

Dartboard lucks out.
May 10 1:42:07 PM Complete Parx Racing 3 Double $1.00 3,5,7/5-7 $9.00 $87.10 $78.10
Tim

not a typo. Tim covered the 6 horse

rdiam · 05-10-2021, 04:05 PM

What am I missing: I see r4 1485 which does not match his ticket...

Richard

MJS6916 · 05-10-2021, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdiam

What am I missing: I see r4 1485 which does not match his ticket...

Richard

I saw that too. Maybe a last minute change when he saw the double probables?

Not sure, just a guess

Lt1 · 05-10-2021, 04:43 PM

Hi Richard. The 6 was my 5th pick so I took a flyer and lucked out.
Tim

Lt1 · 05-10-2021, 04:55 PM

That's exactly right Mike. I don't have a problem using my 5th or even longshot picks on tickets when prices look good. .
Tim

Capcondo · 05-10-2021, 05:05 PM

Biases seem to occur with more regularity at PARX than they should. Today, the #5 or #6 won 7 of the first 9 races. This included a 20:1 shot and 2 12:1 horses.

Lt1 · 05-10-2021, 06:39 PM

Hi Tim. I'm always careful on Mondays when they return after 4 dark days. Based on my capping my models show that horses in the 2 lpr ranking were winning at most dists at Parx. Today[except r11] most of the winners were in the top 2 EPR or 3 ranking. Something to watch for tomorrow Is the track changing or did maintenance or weather influence today.
Tim

05-10-2021, 12:54 PM	#1
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Parx 5-10 Trk Fast R1 7256 R2 4372 R3 7351 LS6 R4 1485 R5 PASS WEAK MDNS R6 4126 R7 PASS WEAK MDNS R8 6938 R9 1A356 R10 621A3 R11 92611 LS7 GOOD LUCK TIM __________________ Trust but verify

05-10-2021, 02:37 PM	#2
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Dartboard lucks out. May 10 1:42:07 PM Complete Parx Racing 3 Double $1.00 3,5,7/5-7 $9.00 $87.10 $78.10 Tim __________________ Trust but verify

05-10-2021, 04:43 PM	#7
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Hi Richard. The 6 was my 5th pick so I took a flyer and lucked out. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

05-10-2021, 04:55 PM	#8
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	That's exactly right Mike. I don't have a problem using my 5th or even longshot picks on tickets when prices look good. . Tim __________________ Trust but verify

05-10-2021, 05:05 PM	#9
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Biases seem to occur with more regularity at PARX than they should. Today, the #5 or #6 won 7 of the first 9 races. This included a 20:1 shot and 2 12:1 horses. __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.

05-10-2021, 03:24 PM	#3
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 606	Tim: Not following your results for the DD above: race 3-4 DD comes 5-6 to pay $87.10. I do not see the 6 horse as one of your contenders in race 4 or as part of your bet ticket. Typo? Thanks. Richard

05-10-2021, 04:05 PM	#5
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 606	What am I missing: I see r4 1485 which does not match his ticket... Richard

05-10-2021, 06:39 PM	#10
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,163	Hi Tim. I'm always careful on Mondays when they return after 4 dark days. Based on my capping my models show that horses in the 2 lpr ranking were winning at most dists at Parx. Today[except r11] most of the winners were in the top 2 EPR or 3 ranking. Something to watch for tomorrow Is the track changing or did maintenance or weather influence today. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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