Balance?

[Giahorse]

How important is The Balance number of the horse. In a lot of the FU Doc seems to put a lot a stock in it.


Thanks

[Giahorse]

63 views and not one answer, I am getting the feeling I must be asking stupid questions because except for when Bill v answers me, I do not get responses, anyway

[rmath]

Giahorse, balance is just another tool like all the other readouts.
I personally only use it when I get a race down to my final 5 horses. Then I check to see if any of my contenders is an 8 or higher. If one of my contenders is 8 or higher then I insist that to be a bet the horse must go off at high odds. 8/1 or higher.
Like Doc said very few horses win with an 8 or above on the dirt.

[atkinsrr]

Giahorse...for me balance is recorded on the WDF and overall at the end of each 20 race cycle they average between 5-7....when a horse is lower than 5 they win a high % of races but the odds are usually to low to win bet..unless the horse is in a pic 3,4,5,6. then they must be used

[Giahorse]

Thanks guys, just that doc talked a lot about it in all the FU, so I just didn't know if it was still as important .

Thanks

gia

[Bill V.]

Hi Giahorse

I would like to answer your questions, But before I do I need to know how much you know.

The answers to all your questions are in the follow ups.
Its one thing to read the follow ups and ask questions about what you see and your records show but
its kind of hard to answer questions like "How important is balance ?"

Rmath and Akinsrr gave you ways to use the balance readout
Now you need to understand what the read out is.

The reason you will see very few winners with a higher than 8 balance and the reason horses with low balance numbers like
2 , 3 and 4 are usually over bet is because of what the numbers
that make up the balance number represent.

Lets say you have 5 contenders in a race
Lets looks at two readouts,

Early Energy Potential and Late Energy Potential

You will have a horse with the best E/EP rank then a 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th
best rank.These 5 contenders will also all have a L/EP rank.
There will be a horse with the best rank and then a 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th
best rank. So lets look at an example

In my example no horse is lower than 4 and higher than 8

Now think about what Rmath and Aksinrr said

for this I will go to a video because I wont be able to explain it well in writing
Here is the video

balance.mp4






thanks
Bill



-

[Ted Craven]

Giahorse,

Once again, Bill V has gone above and beyond to make a video explaining a term or usage - thank you Bill!

Did you not receive my email from yesterday morning - offering to connect computers and spend some time going over this and all your other recent questions? If not - no worries, email does go astray. If you are interested, just email me or PM me to make arrangements. It's the same offer I make to everyone just starting - or anyone. (It's what I spend a lot of my time doing).

Otherwise, the Follow Ups do indeed - eventually - explain everything. As do a few members here. I just thought I would cover several queries with one conversation.

Re the Balance readout - I really don't think it's a very useful one any more - and for some of the reasons Bill elaborated on. It is at best redundant, and thus needlessly additional info. Horses with a Balance of more than 8 in a 5 horse Win Contender set will almost always go hand in hand with either very low Total Energy, low BL/BL or VDC or CSR rank.

E/Ep and L/ep (from which ranks, summed, the Balance is created) co-relate highly (though not perfectly) with EPR and LPR. And TPP (Total Pace Potential) is an aggregate factor created from E/ep and L/ep which also co-relates highly (though not perfectly) with CPR (sum of EPR and LPR) and with BL/BL. So by simply consulting these aggregate factors (e.g. BL/BL, or TPP or CPR) you get an overall line score ranking (of the top 5 horses) which pretty much states that the Balance figure will be 8 or less - which is redundant as I mentioned above.

I recommend you ignore it and concentrate on the aggregate readouts of Total Energy, BL/BL, VDC, CSR - and TPP if you like. But also never forgetting an analysis of the Early versus Late Matchup.

Hope this helps further with Balance. Re several of your other questions, as I said, I am happy to hook up with you one on one. It will take us less time than me writing out long answers to each query.

Anyone else who wants to connect one on one remotely for any questions - please, just ask (by email or PM).

cheers,

Ted

[Giahorse]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Giahorse,

Once again, Bill V has gone above and beyond to make a video explaining a term or usage - thank you Bill!

Did you not receive my email from yesterday morning - offering to connect computers and spend some time going over this and all your other recent questions? If not - no worries, email does go astray. If you are interested, just email me or PM me to make arrangements. It's the same offer I make to everyone just starting - or anyone. (It's what I spend a lot of my time doing).

Otherwise, the Follow Ups do indeed - eventually - explain everything. As do a few members here. I just thought I would cover several queries with one conversation.

Re the Balance readout - I really don't think it's a very useful one any more - and for some of the reasons Bill elaborated on. It is at best redundant, and thus needlessly additional info. Horses with a Balance of more than 8 in a 5 horse Win Contender set will almost always go hand in hand with either very low Total Energy, low BL/BL or VDC or CSR rank.

E/Ep and L/ep (from which ranks, summed, the Balance is created) co-relate highly (though not perfectly) with EPR and LPR. And TPP (Total Pace Potential) is an aggregate factor created from E/ep and L/ep which also co-relates highly (though not perfectly) with CPR (sum of EPR and LPR) and with BL/BL. So by simply consulting these aggregate factors (e.g. BL/BL, or TPP or CPR) you get an overall line score ranking (of the top 5 horses) which pretty much states that the Balance figure will be 8 or less - which is redundant as I mentioned above.

I recommend you ignore it and concentrate on the aggregate readouts of Total Energy, BL/BL, VDC, CSR - and TPP if you like. But also never forgetting an analysis of the Early versus Late Matchup.

Hope this helps further with Balance. Re several of your other questions, as I said, I am happy to hook up with you one on one. It will take us less time than me writing out long answers to each query.

Anyone else who wants to connect one on one remotely for any questions - please, just ask (by email or PM).

cheers,

Ted

Hi

I did not get the email, did you send it to my email address or in rdss messages? I would take any help you offer, could you please resend the email.
Thanks

[Ted Craven]

I sent you the original message yesterday as an email.

I just sent you a PM now.