Match Up This Race

[mikesal57]

This is a good example with the problem I have with my New York home tracks...

everyone is on the #2 as big time speed , but this was from another track..

at Belmont we get shippers all around the country and their 1st call is always faster than the horses coming from Aqu 's main and inner track...

what to do?

mike

[punch18]

hi
1 p
2 e 22.1
3 p
4 p
5 s
6 p
7 e 23.2
8 e 24

could be dominate early with the 2 but i will go ote because of the recent quit in the 2.
#1 shot a 21.4 p to finish third but i like the 22.1 47.2 line on him if it goes other i like #1
punch

[mufasa]

I also play NY tracks especially while Belmont is running and my take on this is that you have to consider #2 as a contender at least or any horse coming from a different track (also dirt vs. poly). After establishing the win contenders on the basis of MU concepts then you have to make a decision either via a program or track comparison chart as to any horses coming from different tracks/surfaces.

Robert

[shipper]

I see the 8, 2 and 7 on the front end. None should last for the win. The 2 will find the CT dirt tougher than the Poly. My projected pace for the race is 24-48:3-115:1-122:2. The 7 is a declining horse, otherwise would win this. The 3 and 4 are tosses due to pace difficulty and cheapness. The 5 is a curiosity, but should find it hard jumping from state-bred maiden to allowance company, and should need a faster pace to run at. Also loses Dunkleberger to the 2 in this race... Of those left, the 1 has run with some better company and against a fast pace last race, which might have put him on edge. Possibility... The 6 fits surprisingly well with this group, beat the 8 last out, and has the best dirt pace fractions along with the 7. Give me the 6 and 1 to win, coming from off the pace, with a 6-7-1 exacta box... Tough race, Turbo! Marty...

[Turbulator]

Richie, do you care to comment on this race? Either way, I'll put up the results tomorrow.

Thanks

[RichieP]

What I "know" is that the WIN will come from O.T.E.

What I 'know" is that the 2,7 and 8 can NOT win as they are early. the 2 looks fastest at first blush BUT the 7 and 8 both have shown 4.5f flash speed and that dooms the 2 as well as the 7 and 8 chances of winning. I bet Ct every night and have seen this picture before.

What I do NOT "know" is who is going to WIN and I do NOT value bet or bet 2 horses.

That's all I got man.

[Turbulator]

Can the 2 go wire to wire? To me that was the main question that had to be answered. I don't know. How do you evaluate those AP races? If those AP races don't apply, then I'd project the pace off of the 8 horse. The 7 should go out with the 8, and the 2 should get sucked along (maybe), so the race sets up OTE.

Who can lay third (or possibly fourth), run to the pace, and pass horses. The 6. The 6 was 3rd at the first call, lost ground to the half, and then made a great power move to win the race. Not only that he fought tooth and nail from the stretch call to the finish.

So either the two wires the race easy or the six comes from off the pace. Which is it? I didn't know. I thought the two might be the speed of the speed, but I also loved the power move of the six.

Since I'm not playing two horses anymore I had to either pass or go with one...I try to pick the winner of every race I handicap--for practice if nothing else. I picked the 2.

However, had I been at the track or watching this race live I don't think there is any way I could of not bet the six. Why? Check out the results. I still think it might be a typo. I got the results from the racing channel, so if anybody can find a result chart for this race I'd love to see it.

Unbelieveable.

Two people got it right--Admin and Shipper. Congrats, you'd have been well rewarded.

[mufasa]

I think my biggest mistake with this race as to selecting the #2 horse was that I was not totally convinced that it would necessarily be a need to lead horse. That it could sit off the pace some and then come on. The getting sucked along at the fast pace is something that I need to consider more, besides some more clear thinking on the particular horse's running style.

Robert

[RAMON201]

Heres the chart and the prices are right . I went with the 5 and my thinking was the 5 is faster but experence won out , both the 5 and 6 are coming off wins and they both had my attention but I went for the 5.

[admin]

wow

Thank You for the chance to work the race
Wow that makes me feel good
Congratulations Shipper and to all you guys. I read your post .
I am working with my mind open that I can pick up tools to work my races
Thanks to Hat and Richie The match up has helped me
by looking at the total picture of a horses ability

Steve I enjoyed your race
thank you

Bill