Matcher's Feedback - What do YOU need help with

[mufasa]

Yes you are right about the #3 horse. It was as they say a legitimate favorite and I was foolishly as to this race trying to beat it at lousy odds of less then 5/2. The #3 was cutting back from a mile in which it ran well against a pace estimated to be like today’s race (trainer move) and in its second race back at a sprint, against today’s type of estimated pace, it showed it could handle the half mile time.

In this case there was no reason to adjust and I never do when practicing the Match Up but I was blinded by what I thought I understood. Even though the #4 came out of a faster half mile time then the rest of the field in its last race, having run well to the half in an unadjusted time, it never showed in its past performances that it could run good at 46+ before. Lesson learned here so for that I am grateful.

Rich:

Perhaps the example of #4 is not a good one as to JB’s quote to you “Pay attention to horses coming out of the fastest pace in last race. Look at them closely.” Or worse maybe I am missing something. When considering the last race in this regard is it important to verify that the horse can handle the pace in its past performances before allowing full credit?

Thanks,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich:

Perhaps the example of #4 is not a good one as to JB’s quote to you “Pay attention to horses coming out of the fastest pace in last race. Look at them closely.” Or worse maybe I am missing something. When considering the last race in this regard is it important to verify that the horse can handle the pace in its past performances before allowing full credit?

Thanks,
Robert

Hi Robert

First off I wouldn't say you are missing anything. The horse did come out of FPLR and held position from 1c-2c.

IF you have seen this pattern win before with YOUR "Mind's Eye" then this was a "play" that just happened to lose. Period.
=========================================================

Now here is something for everyone to take in please. It came from Jim after about 6 months of learning from him. There is a REASON it is being posted here and now ok?

YOUR "Mind's Eye"/Intuition will TALK to you. OK we know that but watch this now.

There are going to be times when you have worked a race and have "picked" your horse that is going to win. You are all keyed up and psyched BUT when you go to write him down or "mark" him or bet him you get a weird SUDDEN feeling that comes over you and leaves you with the thought "somethings not right here."

It comes at the last possible moment. I am suggesting that you keep track of what happens to THESE horses when the race runs.I will stop here on purpose

WRITE down on paper and track the results of these runners.

[billylump]

Rich, You are right on about that feeling about your horse not being
as good as you had previosly thought. When that feeling hits, it is best to
pass the race. Everytime it happens to me the horse in question will lose.

Billylump

[punch18]

Hi guys,
Really trying my best to learn this art without having the book. Any way heres my process help me !!!!! i will put a * next to the area im not sure of

1. make running style call
2. post pro pace ( 22.2 45.4 58.3)
3. How race will run ***
( if i determine it will run other than early do I throw out the earlies right there and not even match them?)
4. match em
1st look for 22.2 or less then see if 45.4 or less is there, i then look at that horse positions if he matches all pro pace fractions.
5 Last horse standing is my pick.
** last 2 standing example
a 22.2 45.4 4 4 3 2
b 22.1 45.4 1 1 1 2
I determin race will be ote because of 3 or more earlies do i give the nod to the a horse?**
Sorry for the rambling guys i just enjoy the races have tons of paitence and want to be the best matcher I can
Thanks in advance
punch

[Bill Lyster]

Richie:

reviewing past lessons is always a good refresher. How about showing us the links to the various spot plays that you have already identified? Things like "3 matching earlies", The Hats marathon spot play, when the horse that figures to get the lead has never had the lead before, etc.

I think we have a tendency to forget how much ground you and The Hat have already covered.

Thanks,

Thanks,

[admin]

Hello Rich

Today at Monmouth I have these two early runners
The eight horses has run two routes The Ten is a regular sprinter
My question is I would kind of think the 10 will get a better break
than the 8 who has been in two routes When I set the pace
I see this developing and maybe make the early pace a little faster ?

Thank you Rich
Bill

[admin]

Hi Rich

I worked the race I made it into a video
I have no access to a Microphone so I had to type
my comments as I thought of them

My bets are the 4 and 6
http://www.paceandcap.com/videos/ARRace4.wmv

Thanks
Bill

[admin]

Hi Rich

well the 4 got the lead the 8 presssed all the way
then the 9 came up late and won at 15/1

well it was fun watching the race when the 4 got ahead of the 8 and 10
more work is ahead but its a start

Thanks

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Richie:

reviewing past lessons is always a good refresher. How about showing us the links to the various spot plays that you have already identified? Things like "3 matching earlies", The Hats marathon spot play, when the horse that figures to get the lead has never had the lead before, etc.

I think we have a tendency to forget how much ground you and The Hat have already covered.

Thanks,

Thanks,

Hi Bill
Here are a few links:

1) The Hat on Energy Distribution (complete with Hat word document and writeup)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1603

2) The Hat - Practice race #4 (using tandems to hep you with Hat commentary)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1685

3) The Hat - Next Practice race ( Hat feedback on projecting pace and horse by horse matching)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1671

4) O.T.E. race from the Hat (Hat explaining the simple concept of early/other than early with a great example race)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2125

5) Jim Bradshaw's Matchup 8 Month Update ( My 8 month report on things learned from Jim. Includes spot plays/Intuition recognition/ Early/O.T.E)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1951

6) The Hat's Power Lines (What are they/How to find them/How to evaluate if they are valid today. Hat gives a perfect description of what they are in post #46)
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2619

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Richie, that is just a great resource for all of us

BL