Projecting Times Refresher Course

[lsosa54]

I have to tell you, Rich, I've been struggling with Hat's approach ever since I read the red manual back in the early 90's. Just when I think "I've got it", it turns out that I don't. That's why I've always been more comfortable with the software - let Entropy & TM do their thing.

However, this particular thread and the way you've approached it has really hit home. Let's hope I can progress from here. If I haven't given up in 18 years, why give up now. I know there's only one Hat, and one Richie, and one Don P., but maybe I can progress from here and lessen my reliance on the software.

Thanks man!

[VoodooFan]

Nice style.

Especially the "take you by the hand" step by step , sentence by sentence of the 5 step approach.

Then topping it off with showing both "THE HAT'S" style and the 5 step approach.

Tremendous contribution and teaching.

VoodooFan

[shoeless]

Richie,Great job once again and Voodoo believe me I needed that take the hand approach to understand it.Also was great how you posted stuff from the book that was relevant to what we were doing.I have the book and never could really grasp it but your approach doing a live race did the trick at least for that type of race.Jeff

[VoodooFan]

I also noticed with THE HAT approach ,the pace of race horse you used to match all the others, you went to HIS powerline.

You did not go to the others powerline, specially since they proved to fail at todays pace.

You did go to horse 8's powerline when he showed a faster pace of race. You then verified this with another line, THEN you went to HIS powerline vs the pace of race horse's powerline.

Very interesting and well explained.

This seems to be a more advanced yet simplier application of the powermove/powerline concept you and Mr. Bradshaw presented.

Also noticed you did this without listing running styles. Perhaps because of the condition of the contenders in this particular race, projected pace took more precedence than running styles.

Like you and Mr. Bradshaw said, there are no rules.

Wow, another excellent one, Rich.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Also noticed you did this without listing running styles.
VoodooFan

Ooopps, my mistake.

You DID do running styles.

You looked for a definative pure Early horse, but all the horses styles were suspect.

So the running style for the horses and the pre-MatchUp analysis of the way the race was going to be run is OTHER THAN EARLY.

Your final contenders and choice verified that choice.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Ooopps, my mistake.

You DID do running styles.

You looked for a definative pure Early horse, but all the horses styles were suspect.

So the running style for the horses and the pre-MatchUp analysis of the way the race was going to be run is OTHER THAN EARLY.

Your final contenders and choice verified that choice.
VoodooFan

Even though the shape is other than early I still want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

I also noticed with THE HAT approach ,the pace of race horse you used to match all the others, you went to HIS powerline.

You did not go to the others powerline, specially since they proved to fail at todays pace.
VoodooFan

OK good observation. Now watch this:

When you use the "Hat method" of working a race as outlined earlier:
1) finding todays race pace either by positional early runner or fastest pace last race at todays track/distance

2) Moving to the 1 horse and matching/eliminating horse by horse using the race pace to START

You save yourself the step of identifying power lines for EVERY horse.Look at Jeff's contenders he posted. The 3,7,8. They are the ONLY horses who have true "Power lines" in TODAYS MATCHUP against TODAYS race pace.

Now you have that time saved available to match the TRUE contenders LINE BY LINE and if you begin practicing this and keeping that race pace in your mind(or on paper) certain horses will have MULTIPLE FAST LINES that start grabbing your "minds eye". Let it "see them" and just go with the flow and listen to that little voice when it FIRST talks to you after "seeing them" ok?

I'll stop here for now and just tell you all

THIS is Jim Bradshaw's Matchup

[shoeless]

I am telling you and any others who have moved beyond the very basics of matching who are reading this thread to NOT project a race to the final time or the "end". This is what Hat wants shown and conveyed to you. Match
1st fraction
1st call
2nd call
stretch call (especially when the stretch call on a pp line is todays distance. A "backup line" as Jim calls it. Ask if you are confused please)


Richie,When you say 1st and 2nd call do you mean positions?Im also assuming then that you dont match 2nd fraction.Jeff

[RichieP]

Hi Jeff

Give me a couple of days and I will help you with your last post as well as your "backup" question a few posts back ok?

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Even though the shape is other than early I still want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race

That is a good point.

That repetitive point might sound simple, but I usually get to caught up in the mechanics and not the point. Early, Early Presser, Susustaind presser, etc.,

The question should be , " can I find a definative Early horse," then, "can he go wire-to -wire " or is there some horse to prevent him to do this.

If the answer is no, then its other than early.

Your point in the above quote just hit me, although you repeated it 100 times:

OTHER-THAN-EARLY = closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

If he happens to win wire-to-wire or as an Early presser, he simply was closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

I think the other point is , when evaluating FINAL contenders, the mechanical and technical aspects and positions of running styles is :

Look at Early over Early Pressers
Early pressers over Pressers ;
Sustained Pressers over Sustained ;
Sustained over Late

" Closest to the lead, factoring in pace of race".

Nice reminder , Rich.

VoodooFan