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Old 09-02-2020, 08:22 PM   #1
rdiam
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2020 KY Derby

2020 KY Derby Sat 9/5, post time 7:01 pm EDT:

r14: As 17-18, Bs 10-15-16, Cs 2-4-6, Xs 1-3-5-7-8-9-11-12-13-14: wide open, 18 needs the lead, will be challenged by 4 early, 2 and 17 best closers. Will be no value on 17 but is most probable winner Probable win bet value on 15 and 18. Mix and match As and Bs in exactas.

Good luck

Richard
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Old 09-02-2020, 09:19 PM   #2
CheckMark
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Good luck Richard!
Will post my picks either tomorrow or early Friday morning.

If anyone is wondering where I have vanished, I am a active poster in the RX FORUM where I post horse and sports picks daily. Thanks

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Old 09-04-2020, 11:06 AM   #3
ScottB
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I'm always curious to know why handicappers who sell their picks give you 3 horses for every race.

From Ray Taulbot:

"During more than 45 years of turf activity I have yet to meet a man who attained consistent success through any means other than spot play operation. No mystery shrouds the reason for this. The hard, cold fact of the matter is that about 6 out of every 9 races run preclude a reasonable chance of naming the eventual winner in advance. The man who refuses to recognize this fact is inviting failure, disappointment and financial loss."

These facts still hold true today.
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Old 09-04-2020, 01:58 PM   #4
CheckMark
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Top 4 Picks for the Kentucky Derby:
#17 Tiz The Law 3/5- No doubt the best horse right now to win this race
#18 Authentic 8-1- Has been working well to keep his form in tact
#15 Ny Traffic 20-1- Saffie Joseph hoping for a itm finish on Saturday
#7 money moves 30-1- Could be the one to upset the superfecta

Exacta Box 7-15-17-18
Super 17-18/7-15-17-18/7-15-17-18/ALL
Win 17 if more than 3/2+
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Old 09-04-2020, 03:37 PM   #5
dlivery
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You have to take a stand...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
I'm always curious to know why handicappers who sell their picks give you 3 horses for every race.

From Ray Taulbot:

"During more than 45 years of turf activity I have yet to meet a man who attained consistent success through any means other than spot play operation. No mystery shrouds the reason for this. The hard, cold fact of the matter is that about 6 out of every 9 races run preclude a reasonable chance of naming the eventual winner in advance. The man who refuses to recognize this fact is inviting failure, disappointment and financial loss."

These facts still hold true today.
If you have the control to get it.
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Old 09-04-2020, 04:17 PM   #6
ScottB
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It’s easy to gain control when you keep records and learn by experience. Find out where your winners are coming from.
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Old 09-05-2020, 10:26 AM   #7
fastcharlie55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
I'm always curious to know why handicappers who sell their picks give you 3 horses for every race.

From Ray Taulbot:

"During more than 45 years of turf activity I have yet to meet a man who attained consistent success through any means other than spot play operation. No mystery shrouds the reason for this. The hard, cold fact of the matter is that about 6 out of every 9 races run preclude a reasonable chance of naming the eventual winner in advance. The man who refuses to recognize this fact is inviting failure, disappointment and financial loss."

These facts still hold true today.
I totally agree and always wondered why touts sell picks. If the picks are that good just put the money through the window. I have been at this over 40 years and concluded long ago that spot plays are the way to positive results.
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Old 09-05-2020, 10:45 PM   #8
MJS6916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post

From Ray Taulbot:

"During more than 45 years of turf activity I have yet to meet a man who attained consistent success through any means other than spot play operation. No mystery shrouds the reason for this. The hard, cold fact of the matter is that about 6 out of every 9 races run preclude a reasonable chance of naming the eventual winner in advance. The man who refuses to recognize this fact is inviting failure, disappointment and financial loss."

These facts still hold true today.
For the vast majority of handicappers, I agree with this.

Currently, I'm part of that vast majority.
If I put money on 25% of the races I analyze, overall that would be a lot.

there are about 2-4 times a year I'll bet into about 20- 30 events a week,
for at most 3 weeks at a time.

Most weeks I don't crack 10, but I'm trying to change that with the help of RDSS.
Also I'm looking into getting more involved in pick-4s and up.

I know there are some out there who bet into 150+ events a week, every week;
but almost all of them get rebates and still barely crack 8%ROI.
So their volume of events and bankroll better be huge to make that worth it.
The remaining of who play that much I doubt are doing it for much more than a hobby.
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