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Old 09-02-2020, 07:55 PM   #1
rdiam
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2020 KY Oaks

2020 KY Oaks, Fri 9/4, post time 5:45 EDT:

r12: As 1-5, Bs 4, Cs 3-7, Xs 2-6-8-9: chalky, 5 needs the lead, wins if can control pace, 1 will press and can win if runs back to Jun 6 race, 4 also presses and will close, needs to run back to May 2 race, 3 needs to run back to Sept 28 race, probably not fast enough to win, 7 should run best race of life, but probably too slow to win, might use underneath, rest are too slow

Bottom line: chalky race, will need to mix and match As, Bs, and Cs to create any semblance of value.

Good luck

Richard
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Old 09-05-2020, 09:29 AM   #2
rdiam
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Comes 7-1-5

right idea looking at the 7 as a "C" contender, wrong idea thinking she too slow to win...

Richard
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Old 09-05-2020, 10:19 AM   #3
cratman
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[QUOTE=rdiam;129440]Comes 7-1-5

right idea looking at the 7 as a "C" contender, wrong idea thinking she too slow to win...

Would appreciate anything you would be willing to share on why the 7 was primed to be at the top of its form cycle. The 7 did "charge the gate" immediately before the race, but that was the only clue that I had.

Thanks,

Mark
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Old 09-05-2020, 08:56 PM   #4
rdiam
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The 7 starts a new form cycle when she moves to Brad Cox barn in the race five back on Feb 15. She then improves in her race four back on March 7 in her first G3 win. After a layoff she reacts (bounces) in her race three back on May 1. She runs another quality fast race two back on June 5. Now here is the KEY: she reacts in her last race (even though she wins), but her reaction was LESS than the reaction between the race four back and the race three back. This smaller reaction (the sheets guys call it a "bounce") was a signal she was ready to run "the race of her life", or a new top, which in this case was good enough to win.

Hope this helps.

Richard
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Old 09-05-2020, 11:12 PM   #5
cratman
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Thanks

Thanks Richard. That is very helpful.

Mark
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Old 09-08-2020, 04:48 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
The 7 starts a new form cycle when she moves to Brad Cox barn in the race five back on Feb 15. She then improves in her race four back on March 7 in her first G3 win. After a layoff she reacts (bounces) in her race three back on May 1. She runs another quality fast race two back on June 5. Now here is the KEY: she reacts in her last race (even though she wins), but her reaction was LESS than the reaction between the race four back and the race three back. This smaller reaction (the sheets guys call it a "bounce") was a signal she was ready to run "the race of her life", or a new top, which in this case was good enough to win.

Hope this helps.

Richard
Hey Richard, I would like to know more about your observations and conclusions. Is there any printed material with examples that allow handicappers to make a determination similar to the one you made in the Oaks? I used the 7's best line but I could not see it improving or overcoming the other lines of the other contenders. #7 was in my final five however.

Thanks,

Much appreciated.
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Old 09-11-2020, 02:40 PM   #7
cratman
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Hey Richard, I would like to know more about your observations and conclusions. Is there any printed material with examples that allow handicappers to make a determination similar to the one you made in the Oaks? I used the 7's best line but I could not see it improving or overcoming the other lines of the other contenders. #7 was in my final five however.

Thanks,

Much appreciated.
Perhaps chapter 8 of the Odds Must be Crazy the bounce and how to catch it.
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