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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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02-04-2024, 02:18 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,183
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A FWIW Survey.
After reviewing how Mr Bill used the energy screen to toss horses I decided to conduct a quick 100 race survey to see how many of the factors race winners had. The track involved were GP,AQU,MVR,& PARX. Here are the results
Horses 5factors 4Factors 3Factors #2 Factors 1Factors 0Factors 100 19 30 12 17 14 8 AS you can see, as Bill pointed out, horses that don't have at least 1 factor only won 8 races. In fact horses with at least 2 factors won 78 of the 100 races. I have downgraded true contenders which don't have at least 2 factors pretty successfully. Like anything else nothing works 100% of the time so I do get burned once in awhile but I will live with it. Tim
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02-04-2024, 07:11 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Vermont
Posts: 134
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Tim, what is the 5th factor ?
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02-04-2024, 08:13 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,183
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Jim the 5 factors on the energy screen are HID, FX,E/EP L/EP,TPP. I looked at how many of the 5 factors the winner had color in.
Tim
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02-05-2024, 04:10 PM | #4 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 30
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Code:
Horses 5factors 4Factors 3Factors 2Factors 1Factors 0Factors 100 19 30 12 17 14 8 |
02-05-2024, 04:31 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,183
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Thanks Speed for cleaning it up. My bad.
Tim
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02-05-2024, 04:49 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 324
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Good stuff Tim.
I spend more time in the Energy screen than anywhere else in RDSS. Mike
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just keeping my trajectory in the positive http://sartinmethodology.com/pubs/RD...d_Glossary.pdf |
02-05-2024, 06:18 PM | #7 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 30
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02-06-2024, 07:11 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Vermont
Posts: 134
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Same analysis for 322 races across multiple tracks ( PRX, FL , SAR, OP, FG)
# Qty Percent Cum Percent 5 113 35.1% 35.1% 4 52 16.1% 51.2% 3 62 19.3% 70.5% 2 39 12.1% 82.6% 1 32 9.9% 92.5% 0 24 7.5% 100.0% |
02-06-2024, 11:20 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,183
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Thanks for the info Jim. I believe we have established that it is pretty safe to downgrade horses with 0 or only 1 factor and be right 8 out of 10 times. Remember that's for win only.
Tim
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02-09-2024, 12:25 AM | #10 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Downers Grove, Il
Posts: 78
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Tim
When you look for the LSP...do you disregard the energy part of program. I have seen some big fish get away with no energy numbers. Don |
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