A Change in The Wind

[trotman]

Could it be that time or luck has run it's course for Nick Zito. Just yesterday Robert LaPenta bought interest in a horse and the horse will be trained by Chad Brown. Since last year LaPenta has moved a number of horses out of Zito's barn to other trainers. Which brings me to the trainer angle which to me is anti-value. Hot trainers, big name trainers on the whole brings no value. Betting on trainers that were once hot and you think lightning will strike twice, again the losses will build.

[big49010]

Chad Brown seems to have the wind at his back, he is beginning to look like Pletcher, with an expanding operation of young talent.

[trotman]

Jeranimo will stay with California trainer Mike Pender until later in the spring when it then will move east and into Chad Brown's barn. Over the years LaPenta has put many horses in Zito's care but the balance sheet is covered in red. Any trainer will tell you that your only as good as your last win and for the past few years the wins have been less and less for Zito.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by trotman

"...Any trainer will tell you that your only as good as your last win and for the past few years the wins have been less and less for Zito."

Here's a window into Zito's overall performance for the last three years. Note, there are some profitable subsets which I've not included in this post.

Please note I use trainer information only as a tool -- just like T-Graph, The Sheets, CJ, Equibase, HDW, Timeform, etcetera.

If there were a gun to my head and I had to use only one thing it would be Total Pace Ratings.

With that out of the way here's the skivy on Nick:

[lsosa54]

Unless his last year was substantially worse that the average of the three, Zito is more than acceptable as a trainer for any of my plays. I might require higher odds on optional claimers, stakes, and msw and maybe play his dirt runners only on an on going basis.

Looking at an individual race, if I felt strongly about his horse and was getting value, I'd bet him under any condition or surface.

Who knows why owners decide to change trainers - could be many reasons. They pay the bills and are free to do what they want. An owner friend of mine switched trainers because his current one had been thrown out of the house by his girlfriend and was staying out all night partying, even though he was still getting to the barn at 5 am. Go figure.

David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious.

[big49010]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious.

That was my question too, very nice presentation, and not to prey into what areas you find him good at, but could you give examples of other stat that are in this package?

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

"...David,are the stats from Formulator? Never used it but have been curious."

Lou and big49010, they're not from Formulator. I'd rather not mention where they're from as I don't want to promote another commercial enterprise, but there are lots of places to get trainer stats.

I just finished doing the first race at Gulfstream today. #2 Chile Dude has nice form and superior pace ratings. He's 3-1 on the morning line and that's an overlay. His Fair Odds should be around 9/5 in my opinion.

The fact that he's first-off-the-claim leads me to take a gander at the trainer stats.

How does the trainer perform in this situation? In the last 25 races, 4% wins first-off-the-claim. That's not particularly encouraging.

On the other hand looking at a longer time frame, the win is 11% first-off-the claim. Second race is 5% and that's it. 0% for third and fourth off-the-claim.
So, today is the best the trainer does in this situation.

Let's look at a few subsets.

How does the trainer do at this track, distance, class and surface? Answer: not great, but not horrible either.



How does the trainer do with the owner? Answer: very well.



How about with the jockey? Answer: certainly acceptable.



The horse hasn't raced at GP so there is no data for that.

So, I've used the trainer information to confirm or cancel my selection.

In this case I'll be happy to bet the TPR horse if the odds are acceptable.

[lsosa54]

Fair enough David. I will research what's out there now if I feel the need.

Don't know if you remember back in the day in SoCal, Greg Lawlor in San Diego had pretty comprehensive stats. I think they were expensive and you used to get paper reports mailed to you. Before the days of the public internet.

Good luck with Chile Dude if you bet him. I'm not entirely confident that the race sets up for him and he'll be able to run down Sir Cotton and Apollo Sky, but that last fig Chile earned plus his fig three back are superior to anything in the field. Just have to hope the horse is happy with the carrots and hay at his new barn

[Dorianmode]

Does anyone have any generally available, free or otherwise, or even general stats, or resources, for what trainers, where, have success at moving high class routers to sprint races, and vice versa, or even general stats on what, statistically, generally happens, in these situations.
Thanks

[trotman]

To Dorianmode and others IMO it's the horse that runs the race. Trainer stats, jockey stats, trainer jockey stats are just identical to the PP's, they are the past. These items IMO are deciding factors to which horse you put your money on. I pay no attention to them, only to the horse. Horse racing is starting to look like a hockey or NFL fantasy pool with all these secondary stats. What irks me is so many people have a position on who is right and who is wrong yet the majority follow the blind sheep. For those you look up to as handicappers or who you followed you need to go back and re-read it all because IMO your way off base.