Test - if paceline is too good to be true

[Bill Lyster]

From today's 8th race at Arlington: Horse #5, Doctor Carina, line 1.

Some pacelines are just too good to be true. Take line 1 here. granted the horse ran its fastest ever race, but only about 5 lengths faster than its second line.

The adjusted speed ratings for the last five races are 86,77,63,74 and 76. The 77 and 76 are the next best lines for this horse.

Look at the DTV for the last race, -26. I think it makes the adjusted SR too high by a lot. If you use this line, the horse is tops in this field. I used lines 2 and 4 and the horse was still good enough to be in the top two.

Here is how I would mentally test the line 1 SR info. Look at the EPR and LPR info for lines 2, 4 and 5. You can either use the best line or the average of the three.

Take line 2, with EPR = 73.8 and LPR = 96.7. For every EPR point of improvement subtract 2 pts of LPR to see where this horse would rank using Hat's 2 units of energy lost for every 5th of a second where the horse ran faster.

Race 1 EPR= 89; LPR = 96.7, so compared to line 2 the horse ran 15 pts faster in line 1. You would have to subtract 30 pts from the 97 LPR in race to, to match the terms of the equation, so you get to LPR = 97-30 = 67.

Total CPR 89+67 = 156, vs 180.4 calculated for race 1. If the horse really did get better by 1 sec or 5 lengths, you could rework the equation to 89+(97-20) = 166. This is more in the range of CPRs from races 2, 4 and 5. I concluded that line 1 was too good to be true and used other lines.

The horse finished 3rd in this race as the favorite.