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05-24-2013, 02:12 PM | #1 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 25
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bris race shapes vs track variant
I’m wondering if bris race shapes, like track variant, are good unless they’re bad.
Bris says “relative to par”, “average winners time” and 2 points per length implication is, like speed to par, there should be a baseline for comparison gulfstream - 8.5 turf same horse - same track - same distance - same surface example 1 - 01/2011 call1 - 50.8 - shape -13 (6.5 lengths slow) - means par near 49.5 call2 - 75.6 - shape -13 (6.5 lengths slow) - means par near 74.3 fin - 105.0 - variant -21 (10.5 lengths slow) - means par near 103 example 2 - 04/2011 call1 - 47.4 - shape +8 (4 lengths fast) - means par near 48.2 call2 - 71.1 - shape +11 (5.5 lengths fast) - means par near 72.1 fin - 102.0 - variant -5 (2.5 lengths slow) - means par near 101.5 If I understand this: looking at call2 75.6 - 71.1 = 4.5 seconds which is reported as shape going from -13 to + 11 (a 24 point or 12 length swing) using shape of 24, time diff should be between 1 to 1.5 seconds, not 4.5 using time, shape diff should be 8-10, not 24 Anyone know how/why they justify this? |
05-24-2013, 04:43 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Everything is based off the relationships between the speed figure and the pace figures.
Example - SF = 80, pace par for 80 is 80 (for sake of discussion) Race pace is 85, the race shape is fast 5. |
05-24-2013, 05:05 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Look at Cross Traffic's last line in the Met Mile - that race has the same pars as the Met mile, and he was the leader at both first calls, so you can see the +6 and +4 race shape.
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05-24-2013, 08:50 PM | #4 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 25
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shape to par by horse or leader question
Thanks Tom,
I understand the principles - I don’t understand these figs - looks like a moving par time or am I mixing apples and cement blocks. I get 4 different par times from the same horse in 2 different races depending whether I use adj time or use shape (calcs below). bris faq on shapes: “.. relative to the par for the final time.” “… how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race's final time. “ “This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time).” “For example, a "+6" Race Shape represents a pace which is three (3) lengths faster than normal.” Is shape strictly a WITHIN THIS RACE measurement? That it’s based on leader to par would seem that would not to be the case. let me do this a different way from DRF data file for gp 8.5f turf and using 5 lengths per sec: bris par at 6f is 79 - not sure on the actual time used for par race 1 known: 6f leader time = 75.6 horse bhnd 10 (2 sec) horse pace 59 - 41 slow (20.5 lengths or 4.1 sec) shape -13 (6.5 lengths or 1.3 sec) calced: horse adj time = 77.6 (75.6 + 2) par time from horse pace = 73.5 (77.6 adj time - 4.1 pace diff) par time from leader shape = 74.3 (75.6 leader time - 1.3 shape diff) race 2 known: 6f leader time 71.1 horse bhnd 4 (0.8 sec) horse pace 93 - 7 slow (3.5 lengths or 0.7 sec) shape +11 for leader (5.5 lengths or 1.1 sec) calced: horse adj time using bhnd = 71.9 (71.1 + 0.8) par time from horse pace = 71.2 (71.9 adj time - 0.7 pace diff) par time from leader shape = 72.2 (71.1 leader time + 1.1 shape diff) |
05-24-2013, 08:56 PM | #5 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 25
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let me add
Or is shape trying to say that a shape of +6 at call 1 means that the leader is on pace to FINISH 1 sec faster than par?
If that's the case, I refer back to their faq: “This enables the user to quickly identify which segment(s) of the race were fastest and slowest (relative to each call's average pace for the final time).” Specifically states relative to EACH calls average pace. Thanks. Bob |
05-27-2013, 12:28 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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I believe the race shape numbers are based on the leader at those calls which allows the user to see what a horse was facing such as closers against slow pace therefore it was at a disadvantage.
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05-28-2013, 08:07 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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race shapes
I think Bob Pandolfo mentions these in his new longshot book, i have not read the book but i think a few guys on the board here have read it. Maybe they can shed some light on the subject.
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05-30-2013, 09:27 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Quote:
Go back to Cross Traffic. His SR in the last race is the same as the par for the Met (top right hand corner of the PPS) and he led at both early calls. The pace figs are based off the speed figs. Times are not used. |
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