chomping at the bit (lesson three) - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 01-17-2009, 01:56 PM

My betting coach: "I often see my card playing adversaries completely deny reality looking to get their action "fix" when it is reality that will eat away at their bank roll. They will be playing, seeing obviously that another player is showing two kings, and DISREGARD completely, the odds of that player winning, somehow looking for the pie in the sky score. Granted, a hand showing like that will pay big in SOME situations, but the reality of it tells you just to fold. I see the same thing in horse bettors when they try to find a horse that will beat a logical odds on favorite in a big stakes race, when the reality of it is, at even money some of those horses are STILL ovelayed relative to their real probability of winning. Unless there is a real, obvious reason to consider that horse has weaknesses against its opponents today, either Pass, or use it as a key in an exotic. Don't LIE to yourself."

Moral: Hunt when there is a need to hunt otherwise accept what is.

tom · 01-17-2009, 04:56 PM

Easy solution to that problem - separate bankrolls.
I keep an action bet kitty for playing around, like while I'm reading the forums, and get talking about a race, I might throw a few bucks at it, of a box or two.
It is never mingles with my real wagering capital. It is money others would spend on bowling, golf, movies......it is my entertainment fund. Professional chefs still cook their own diner at night.
BTW, it does generate a small profit....try that with bowling, unless you bowl for beers!

01-17-2009, 01:56 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	chomping at the bit (lesson three) My betting coach: "I often see my card playing adversaries completely deny reality looking to get their action "fix" when it is reality that will eat away at their bank roll. They will be playing, seeing obviously that another player is showing two kings, and DISREGARD completely, the odds of that player winning, somehow looking for the pie in the sky score. Granted, a hand showing like that will pay big in SOME situations, but the reality of it tells you just to fold. I see the same thing in horse bettors when they try to find a horse that will beat a logical odds on favorite in a big stakes race, when the reality of it is, at even money some of those horses are STILL ovelayed relative to their real probability of winning. Unless there is a real, obvious reason to consider that horse has weaknesses against its opponents today, either Pass, or use it as a key in an exotic. Don't LIE to yourself." Moral: Hunt when there is a need to hunt otherwise accept what is. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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01-17-2009, 04:56 PM	#2
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Easy solution to that problem - separate bankrolls. I keep an action bet kitty for playing around, like while I'm reading the forums, and get talking about a race, I might throw a few bucks at it, of a box or two. It is never mingles with my real wagering capital. It is money others would spend on bowling, golf, movies......it is my entertainment fund. Professional chefs still cook their own diner at night. BTW, it does generate a small profit....try that with bowling, unless you bowl for beers!