FG - Jan 14

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Hey Ranch,

7 Lady C's last line gave her a top 3 TT, which is often an indication a horse is going to improve. She was also running for a price for the first time, so she got the MSW to MC plus mark. She had the top LPR and the 3rd highest Hidden Energy and those two factors are generally very strong for turf routes. Her adjusted SR had improved in each of the last 3 races, which seems to show she is coming in form, which along with the top 3 TT made me hope for an improvement. I also like her top TS+F, which showed a good close.

Normally I would just throw out a line that ugly, but I took a course from Tom Hamilton at a community college in LA (not for college credit unfortunately) and the main thing I got out of that class was always rate the last line. He pointed out that the program sees things we might not initially see and if the horse rates really high off its last line, you should really think twice before tossing it.

When you look at the last lines of all the horses in the race, they are truly bad. The 9 finished second in a dirt sprint and the 4 finished 2nd in a turf route Other than the two finish places, no other horse in the race had a top 3 placement at ANY call in their last line. This kind of ugly race is very chaotic and there are often great mutual prices to be had.

Yes, the fact that the pace scenario was what I call "crazy pace" is why I asked about your including the 7. Interestingly, here's what my auto-generated comments on the 7 said:

7 LADY CLARE
1st run for tag within 10 races ( 4 LT st)
Lowest Tag in 10 races ( 4 LT st)
Last Race Speed Top in 10 races with two+ increases ( 4 LT st)
Profit Trainer: Current 6.90 Prev 0.38

A lot of the same stuff you said. I need to better utilize this data and other data in these crazy pace races.

[ranchwest]

Also, Lady Clare was sired by Speightstown, a very good sire.