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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-17-2017, 09:18 PM   #1
Jeebs
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Hidden Energy and Factor X

I've seen sources where HE is the average of 2F+3F, while other sources say that HE is a weighted average. Same for FX. Either the average of 1F+3F or a weighted average. If these factors are weighted, how are they weighted? Does it depend on distance? Does a certain fraction take more precedence over another in either calculation?
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Old 07-17-2017, 10:10 PM   #2
Mitch44
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Jeebs: Good to have you back posting, hoping you are well.

I know there is more than one definition for HE and not sure which version is currently used. Ted could answer that.

Not sure about the weighting but have read that somewhere ,I believe in a follow up. They had 50,000 races or more stored in a computer that they used to test new programs against. Weighting factors makes perfect sence because its easy to determine by distance their importance or worth which increases or decreases by the distance involved or distance being measures. For example TT in my opinion tends to be highly overrated however the shorter the distance the more important it becomes.

There are factors that weight (have as much influence) as much as EP or SC however handicappers are speed oriented.

Factors are not created equal depending on the distance involved. The Doc certainly was aware of this however whether he incorporated that into some of his more later factors and weighted them according to their importance I can't answer that. I personally don't believe he did.
I'm sure with him and some of his brainy cohorts they came to the same conclusion as I did in attempting this.

What really makes it difficult is the deceleration factor, that's really the rub! Figuring the value of a factor is rather easy, the problem is horses all decelerate different which makes coming up with a standard just about impossible. For example FX at 6F is worth 66.6666% the problem is horses don't decelerate at the same rate. So for a well balanced horse the factor could be weighted at 66% but what about the horse that stops on a dime and decelerated rapidly? That horse can't get the full credit of 66%.

Even with 50,000 race I don't believe a set or precise formula could be achieved. Every race is different and its the contenders within that race that could give the proper weighting of any factor. Along with where that deceleration took place. I.e. FX was it slow in the 1st FR or 3rd FR? It depends where it took place and how fast it occurred. This is part of the match up and is all taking care of within the program similar to the way all adjustments are accounted for, by proven techniques proven over time and many many races.

IMO weighing of factors by distance or a PRECISE FORMULA is impossible and a fools errand. I've done some tinkering on this which proves what stated here. Theory of the proper weighting of factors in racing doesn't work in horseracing.The match-up and running styles supersedes the weighting of any factor by distance and incorporates deceleration. That a tricky statement because the match-up includes factors but it solves all those problems of weighting and deceleration.
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Last edited by Mitch44; 07-17-2017 at 10:20 PM.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:14 PM   #3
shoeless
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Jeebs

I am not happy to see you posting as it leads me to believe
that your in the process of betting again.

Going back 40 years ago I ran up credit card debt due to the horses. I
did manage to pull myself out of it and vowed never to let it happen again
and it never did.

Enjoy your wife and family, there is so much more to life then beating your
head against the wall trying to beat the nags.

Jeff
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:27 PM   #4
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Jeebs

I am not happy to see you posting as it leads me to believe
that your in the process of betting again.

Going back 40 years ago I ran up credit card debt due to the horses. I
did manage to pull myself out of it and vowed never to let it happen again
and it never did.

Enjoy your wife and family, there is so much more to life then beating your
head against the wall trying to beat the nags.

Jeff
Jeff,

I do enjoy my family. I spend countless hours of quality time with them. We camp, drive to special places where our son can experience the joys of childhood, and we have him participate in activities where he interacts with other children. The other day when my Dad took our son to Chuck E. Cheese, my wife and I spent the late morning/early afternoon out and about in downtown Saratoga Springs. Right now, the #1 A priorities are planning his 4th birthday party, as it will be a Christmas theme celebration. The other is getting him ready for school in the Fall.

As for you pontificating re: what I should or should not be doing in my life, I will take the high road and simply say that while you are definitely entitled to your opinion, I am not partaking in anything over my head or comfort level. Ive come to the realization that horse racing is a hobby and I am treating it as such. I have my wife's blessing to attend opening day and some other days this meet. Also, just because I read or post doesn't necessarily reflect my activity. If I stay away from here, it will be on my volition, not because someone on this board thinks I should stay away.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:37 PM   #5
shoeless
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Jeebs

Ok sorry none of my buisness
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Old 07-18-2017, 09:28 PM   #6
Jeebs
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Jeff,

Sorry that I came across the way I did. I know that you have concerns re: my well-being, and I'm appreciative of the advice. It is not in my nature to be adversarial and I am not about to change now.

I am honest with myself. I can't and won't run from my problems. The only thing I can do is tackle them head on. I have a long way to go to get to where I want to be, but in time, I will get there. I have the support of my wife and family, which keeps me going. I will not lose sight of that.

Bottom line, I have to be my own policeman when it comes to knowing when enough of something is enough. I feel that I am strong enough and mature enough to flick the switch and take time to smell the roses if necessary.
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