Win Payout Frequency Graph - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

Dorianmode · 07-22-2017, 09:49 PM

In my world PTO is Paid Time Off.

Just curious if any of you math geniuses have ever thought about constructing a "quality" metric, in the sense of what objective advantage (for example) a 2 horse dutched selection has over the rest of the field, or the next three (or all) of your rated runners ? I'm trying out a few ideas. For example today (7/22) at Woodbine, in the 4th race, my "Quality Metric" had the # 6 with a higher than normal advantage over the next three, (my 5 total contenders). If this sounds like something anyone has worked on, I'd be interested in any ideas you have.

Mitch44 · 07-23-2017, 11:09 AM

Just saw this post Mick and some how missed it. Your payout study basically mirrors a study done many years back by Burton Fabricand and published in1965.

What his statistical study found was that horses win according to their odds, or in other words the greater the odds the fewer the frequency of win. Booking tables were developed based on the percentages of wins and still hold up today.

I believe lumping them all together is a fools errand. Essentially if one wants to know about the unknown than study the unknown.

Mitch 44

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07-22-2017, 09:49 PM	#31
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	In my world PTO is Paid Time Off. Just curious if any of you math geniuses have ever thought about constructing a "quality" metric, in the sense of what objective advantage (for example) a 2 horse dutched selection has over the rest of the field, or the next three (or all) of your rated runners ? I'm trying out a few ideas. For example today (7/22) at Woodbine, in the 4th race, my "Quality Metric" had the # 6 with a higher than normal advantage over the next three, (my 5 total contenders). If this sounds like something anyone has worked on, I'd be interested in any ideas you have.

07-23-2017, 11:09 AM	#32
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Just saw this post Mick and some how missed it. Your payout study basically mirrors a study done many years back by Burton Fabricand and published in1965. What his statistical study found was that horses win according to their odds, or in other words the greater the odds the fewer the frequency of win. Booking tables were developed based on the percentages of wins and still hold up today. I believe lumping them all together is a fools errand. Essentially if one wants to know about the unknown than study the unknown. Mitch 44