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Old 12-26-2020, 04:35 PM   #1
ScottB
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Handicapping for the Winner

Mitch44 wrote, "My approach is and always has been to bet the best horse and with that approach I could care less whether its the favorite or goes off at 100 to 1. If you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown." (Taken from another thread)

I agree 100 % with Mitch44.

I'm a very good handicapper and I always look for the best horse in the race. The horse with the best figures, in form and placed right. If the price is not right to your liking pass the race.

I've had my share of getting a race down to two horses, an 8/5 favorite with top figures, in form placed right only to go with my 2nd choice at 4-1 for a better price. Then watch the 8/5 romp and win easy.

The right process is to find the best horse and bet it. If you don't like the price pass the race. In this competitive game you have to except the fact that for the most part you have to take what they give you. Handicapping and betting strictly for price is a haphazard operation.

Last edited by ScottB; 12-26-2020 at 04:38 PM.
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Old 12-26-2020, 07:59 PM   #2
Mitch44
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Even though favorites win more now a days they still lose more than they win, therefore your always risking a lot for little.

I just don't take short odds for win bets. If I deem it the best horse than I'll look for a DD before or after that race or an Ex. to make a profit on the low price favorite. Even if you miss the DD or EX. from this strategy the ones you do hit more than make up for it.

I also look at the DD and Ex matric of payoffs and eliminate those low paying ones or favorite DD and Ex the public is playing, unless I'm playing multiple tracks. You should look for payoffs at least twice what you going to put into it.

Sometimes I also tier my bets. I.e. $3 with my #1 choice, $2 w/ my #2 choice and $1 with my #3 choice of combinations as an example, not necessarily those amounts. Simplified for understanding. They win more that way and the higher the ranking the more they pay. My 4 or 5th horses are mainly used underneath not as keys or they would be ranked higher if the matrix payoffs justify those bets.

I never box and if you do your saying the 4th or 5th horses have as much of a chance of winning as your top 3. That's seldom the case and if it is you should probably pass the race or key the longer odd horses of the group.

Mitch44
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Old 12-27-2020, 11:15 AM   #3
rdiam
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Instead of opinions, I prefer to deal in statistical facts when analyzing horse racing:

1. EVERY horse in a race has some chance to win. Win probability on some approaches 50%, win probability on others may be less than 1%.

2. If you bet a horse at odds higher than those implied by its win probability, you have +EV and you will win $ over a large enough sample size. Similarly, if you bet a horse at odds lower than those implied by its win probability, you have -EV and you will lose $ over a large enough sample size. For example, betting horses at 1-1 odds that win more than 50% of the time will win $. Similarly, betting horses at 9-1 that win more than 10% of the time will win $. But betting horses at 1-1 that win less than 50% of the time will LOSE $.

3. When deciding to bet, we have to estimate win probability. Again, to bet the 1-1 horse we need to estimate it will win more than 50% of the time. And to bet at horse at 9-1 we need to estimate it will win more than 10% of the time.

4. The horse that we estimate is MOST likely to win may or may not be a bet -- not because we think the odds are too low on an absolute basis, but because we think the odds are too low RELATIVE to our estimate of the horse's chance to win.

5. The odds on a horse are determined by everyone betting in the pari-mutuel pool. Therefore, we are not betting ON horses, we are betting AGAINST other bettors in the pool (and their opinions backed by $).

6. If you are only willing to bet the horse you estimate is most likely to win, you will need to be a much better handicapper than the large rebate syndicates that populate this part of the pools, since they are willing to take worse odds in order to build volume for their rebates.

7. Kelly betting says you should bet more on horses with a higher win probability than you do on horses with a lower win probability.

8. If you are not maximizing your rebate you are leaving $ on the table.

9. The 20% plus takeout in horse racing is a HUGE nut to overcome.

10. Given the takeout, bookies on the planet LOVE horseplayers as long as they can limit the payouts on longshots, since the vig will grind most of them down over time.

Richard
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Old 12-27-2020, 12:47 PM   #4
Mitch44
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I don't use any mathematical formula to determine a bet and don't have the time to do so. I just know from habitual situations I guess what a fair value and what's not a fair value. A horse can pay $4.00 and be the best bet of the day(as far as a winner) after all that's a 100% profit.

I have always said that the public or fans lump all favorites and longshots together. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL!!! One is a deserving favorite or longshot while another is not. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL. Each player must determine that on their own. And by no means is that an easy assignment. Determining whether they are legit is an extremely difficult task, but not impossible in some situations. Few dig deeper than their usual routine to find out.

Some situations just can't be decided because of the form cycle, even the most proficient don't know when a horse will go off form or dramatically improve, at least until horses start talking. I believe it was the famous Ray Taulbot that said for every race you win you'll lose two due to the form cycle. I'm not sure of the actual accuracy of that statement but there is no doubt and a fact that we lose races because of the form cycle. Not many exam it(form cycle) but there are clues that give us some edges in certain situations, not all situations but we need to take advantage of the ones we can detect.

Keep lumping all those favorites and longshots in the same category or the number one BLBL,V/DC or top in any Factor as the same, and your just going to get the same results as many others of the obvious.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 12-27-2020 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 12-29-2020, 09:11 PM   #5
ScottB
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rdiam posted:

9. The 20% plus takeout in horse racing is a HUGE nut to overcome.

The only time the track takeout is a problem is on bets where you can't see the payout in advance.

On win bets and exacta wagers where you see what the payouts will be before you bet, the track takeout is irrelevant.
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Old 01-02-2021, 01:05 PM   #6
barryt
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I dunno ScottB.
Isn’t the corner stone of the Sartin Methodology to bet 2 horse in a race, both to win.
In your example of the 8-5 and 4-1 horses, doesn’t Sartin say bet them both. Huey Mahl provide a chart to determine how much to bet on each.. it’s in one of the follow ups but I don’t have that info at my finger tips.
JMO
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Old 01-03-2021, 08:47 AM   #7
Mitch44
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Sartin recommended to bet 60 & 40% on your two horses, with 60% on the low odds horse. He also said one could go as high as 70%. The two horse bet prevented long losing streaks which had an effect on decision making. The 60% also was to prevent capital loss so that when that 40% horse came in it was all profit.

Betting two horses is nothing more than creating your own entry. More likely than not what destroys this concept is the players lack of discipline with a hap hazard approach to picking contenders, pace lines, money management and avoiding situations with several unknown factors. Its a holistic approach and even given a road map to success they insist in taken detours enroute along the way.


Mitch44

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Old 01-28-2021, 07:09 PM   #8
CEW
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Barry et al.....

Two horse betting, as you say, is a cornerstone of the methodology.

Your reference to an 8/5 and a 4-1: this is .70 - 1 entry and the bet is split right at 2/3rd on the 8/5 and 1/3rd on the 4 -1. The article you are referring to is in Follow Up #2 by Huey Mahl and the multipliers can be found on the charts in the article in order to size and dutch the bets.

Depending on your average mutuel and win percent, a 70 cent return might be a pass. Huey in general recommended passing once a dutch entry was less than 50 cents.

I love 2 horse betting and hear it from people nearby at the OTB that it doesn't make sense. I have two responses ready at all times: 1) Do you have just one stock in your portfolio?; and 2) let me see the last exacta ticket you played....I can almost guarantee you have more than one horse in the win position. As soon as you box an exacta, you are a two horse win bettor!

Continued good luck to all here....hope we are able to be live at CD in May!

Chuck
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Old 01-29-2021, 11:40 AM   #9
Mitch44
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I tried doing that 70% on those very prohibitive favorites. It felt very uncomfortable and the risk reward ratio was just pitiful.

Rather than do that I take that extra 10% and key that horse for an EX. where the reward is greater considering the risk or key that horse for a DD etc. At times I'll bet 40 and 40% and put that other 20% into an EX or DD and sometime will do that with the whole 60 or 70 % and just win bet the best odds horse.

At times I play the better odds horse more for an EX or DD and think of the smaller bet on the favorite as a save bet or a bet with a small profit. See my last couple of "Monkey" posts for an example. After all favorites still lose at least 60% or most the time. I make much more money doing that, especially if the favorite seems more vulnerable.

I don't really lock myself into a rigid betting method however for a beginner I strongly recommend the two horse bet as confidence is a strong factor in the decision making process.


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