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Old 04-07-2015, 01:01 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Marathon Method update for Derby and other long races

When this info was first posted in 2007 all 31 of the past Santa Anita Handicaps had been won by horses either first or 2nd at the stretch call. Since that time all 9 subsequent winners have been first or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call and 7 out of 9 were within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the mile call. One winner was 4th by 8 and the other was 6th by 4 lengths.

For the Derby, the original info was 41 out of 44 1st or 2nd at stretch call. Since then 7 of 8 were 1st or 2nd at the stretch call, one was 3rd by 1.5 Lengths (update info 48/52).

I was not the instigator of the 41/44 info, but I did go back as far as equibase allowed. In the last 24 Derbys (back to 1991) 20/24 were within 4.5 lengths at the mile call; 22/24 were either 1st or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call (or within 1.5 lengths). Giacomo and Grindstone were 6th, 2.75 and 4th by 3.5 lengths respectively, at their stretch calls.

Moral of the story is, if you are not on or near lead or in the process of passing a lot of horses you probably will not win the Derby. Deep closers from races with slow mile times are candidates for other than win.
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Old 04-07-2015, 01:23 PM   #2
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Derby picture using Marathon method so far. I will update after Ark Derby next week. This screen shot only shows the top 20 or so mile times due to size constraints of the uploading. The second attachment is the rest of the guys so far. I hilighted horses who made signficant positional moves. Positional moves against the faster 6 furlong times would be optimal for now.
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Old 04-07-2015, 08:11 PM   #3
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The connections for Ami’s Flatter are undecided on the Derby, he should have enough points to qualify but i don’t think that’s the plan.
He was shipped back to Woodbine until a decision is made, and by the sounds of it, Ivan Dalos is pointing this colt towards the Queens Plate.
I’ve been following the three Ontario breds (Ami’s Flatter, Conquest Typhoon, Danzig Moon) throughout the qualifying races, and i don’t feel warm and fuzzy about any of them, time will tell.....
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Old 04-08-2015, 10:37 AM   #4
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This could be a tough year to comparatively handicap the Derby. It seems like the only track giving up normally run times is Santa Anita and possibly Tampa Bay. (Both of the GP races had horrible 3rd fraction splits and one of those races went 111.xx to 6F mark and then walked home.) I cannot get enthused about horses winning off 112, 113, 114 interior fractions when the Derby has a plethora of early speed types and horses that cruise vs faster fractions and still close. Hopefully this weeks Derby will be run on a fast track and will produce faster horses.



Might not be too big of a price if the West Coast form holds in Kentucky.
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Old 04-20-2015, 03:35 PM   #5
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Updated Marathon Method info for likely Derby Horses

I read this am that none of the Illinois Derby top 3 were headed for the Derby, but they would have been far down the list of mile times as the leader at the mile in that race ran 138.00. So I did not include any of those horses on this list.

This info is shown in two parts because of file size restrictions of this website. The top set of info, which ends with Firing Line's 2/7 race, is sorted by position at the 1/4 mile call, so you can get an idea of who might be leading and at what time. The top set of info also includes, with one exception, the top 15 mile times as extracted from the result charts and the beaten lengths shown.

Only 4 horses in the last 24 Derbys have been farther back than 4.5 lengths at the mile call and only 2 have been 4th or worse at the 9 furlong mark in the derby. All others were either 1st, 2nd or 3rd, usually no more than 2 lengths behind at the stretch call of the Derby. The largest leads overcome at the mile call were 9L, 7.75L and 5L by Grindstone, Sea Hero and Lil Tee; the largest leads overcome at the stretch call was 3.5L by Grindstone (Again, all of this in the last 24 Derbys).

On the right of the attachment I have hi-lighted what could be the pace of the Derby and the last column shows the time from the six furlong mark to the 9 furlong mark (with races at 8.5 calculated by adding 6.4 seconds to the finish time). Horses that have not run near the projected pace that are slower closers than the ones on the lead and will have to show significant improvement in this 3 furlong closing time to be competitive (assuming that there is not a killer pace duel.) See the red mark at the right of Materiality and Upstart.

You should note that the race with the fastest mile time was the Grade 1 run at Los Alamitos last December. NONE of those 2 year olds have matched or bettered that time and my personal prejudice is to not consider 2 year old times unless they are repeated.

On the left side of the data I hi-lighted horses that were either 1st or 2nd in either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race. I also Hi-lighted Mr Z, who was 3rd by a head at Los Alamitos, but notice that his times and BL really have not come close while racing as a 3 YO.

The first or top half of the data are my win contenders, but notice how many of the top spots are occupied by the same few horses - Dortmund, Firing LIne, Carpe Diem. American Pharoah probably improved the most in its last two races.

The hi-lighted blue info on the far right shows which horses had faster 9 furlong times (actual or adjusted) than mile times. My interpretation (not proven by any stats) is that this could indicate a horse with likely sustained ability. It does not hurt to notice that American Pharoah ran one of the faster 6 furlong times, 110.74 yet improved from the 10th best mile time to the 7th best 9 furlong time - the 37.78 3 furlong closing time is also one of the top times in that category.

Have some fun thinking about this for the next 2+ weeks.
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Old 04-20-2015, 03:39 PM   #6
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Data for horses with slower times not included in previous post

The other data:
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Old 04-20-2015, 05:52 PM   #7
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hi, bill..thanks for this info.....u might try chef-de-race.com for numbers like this..check it out
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Old 04-20-2015, 06:25 PM   #8
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Thanks for the reference.
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Old 04-21-2015, 07:39 PM   #9
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Refresher info on the Marathon method

Marathon Race Spot Play (copied from the original Hat Check post)

"For this Spot Play we have FOUR keys to work with.

1) We are going to work TODAY’S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today’s virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp’s which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and match up the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

**Important**

I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re-reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.

Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who is ALSO closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race."

In a couple of days I will go through this year's Derby Horses and hopefully exhibit how this is done.
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Old 04-28-2015, 02:07 PM   #10
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Derby Analysis so far

In an earlier post I said something about not using fast two year old times when considering horses for the Derby. I said that because in past Derbys I'd given too much credit to a fast 2 YO time that had not been repeated in the current Derby year.

Last December we had the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity with 3 on the wire, with Dortmund out heading Firing Line, who nosed out Mr. Z in a 140.86 8.5 furlong race. A very interesting race in that it showed that Dortmund could press a fast pace and gain against it. He was 3rd at the first three calls, between 2.5 and 1.5 lengths back. Since then he has had it all his own way. Horses only run as fast as they need to in order to win, so don't penalize or mischaracterize Dortmund's running style just because he whipped easier. Firing Line came back at Sunland on March 22 to run a 147.39 track record 9 furlong race which would have been a 141.04 at 8.5 furlongs (I averaged the mile and 9 F times since he was on the lead almost all the way.)

Both Firing Line and Dortmund pressed in the Robt B Lewis stakes with Dortmund again winning by a head in 142.20. So along with American Pharoah all three can press just in case there is an absolute freak on the lead in the Derby.

The prelim race that looked the best to me was the Grade 2 San Felipe run on March 7th. Dortmund beat Prospect Park (not in Derby) and Bolo.

Using The Hat's Marathon Method the best mile is FL's 134.34, then Mr Z at 134.36, then Dortmunds 134.44, then FL's 134.70, then Dortmund at 135.51, then Bolo at 135.53, then American Pharoah at 135.94. After AP there is a full one second gap to Carpe Diem at 136.94. With the exception of Mr. Z, the top ten miles are split between Dortmund, Firing Line and AP

Mr. Z could be a pace setter, but only ran better when the internal times of races early this year got much slower. In the Arkansas Derby, the only fast pace against which it raced since December he backed up significantly vs. AP. I think he can be in the top 4, but not a winner.

By the Marathon method I would take Firing Line, and Bolo and box Dortmund and AP in a 4 way box. Bolo, Carpe Diem, Far Right and International Star can all close in case the EP's resort to being E's exclusively.

The Other Way:
Picking the pace of the race and matching the horses using the Hat's 2 for 1 energy gain/loss you can use either of FL's 12/20 or 3/22 lines and I get:

I projected to 9 furlong mark:

Firing Line (both lines make him a winner) 147.39 and 147.72
Dortmund - 148.26
Bolo - 148.40
American Pharoah as an SP not caught up in the pace - 148.52
Carpe Diem - 149.77 and 150.00
Far Right - 150.12
International Star - 150.22
Frosted - 150.31
and interestingly American Pharoah if an EP - 151.32

I applied the 2 for 1 adjustments to E and EP and the P's but I also let the P's run as if not affected by the pace. No adjustment for the SP's or S's. Depending on how much some or all of the 3 YOs improve between starts or regress, the top 4 are pretty consistent, IMHO

Now I gotta find a price in the Oaks to make some real $.

Cheers,
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