Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[DaveEdwards]

Fair enough.

Very much enjoyed doing that.

[gl45]

FTL,
I will wait for the daily double....

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

Fair enough.

Very much enjoyed doing that.

Good job!

You did really well, right up to the point where you picked one of the "S" horses to mug the "E" horse late! But that's 'OK'. It's the reason the follow ups provide example races. It's called "LEARNING". I hope this example helps.

By the way, using the +,(+) and 0 really helps in identifying horses so you can give them the proper label. It makes you look closely at the horses running lines.

You also mentioned some confusion with the cutoff definition for each symbol.
If you can expand on that, I'm sure between Bill V and I, we can clear it up for you and others.

I have posted this elsewhere, but it is important, so I'll post it again here. What you are looking for are "usable" lines.
The following is my definition of each symbol;

+ = any race where the horse ran, 1st, 2nd or 3rd
(+) = any race where the horse shows one of the following
A – showed good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or 2nd calls, even if it faded down the stretch
B – any race where the horse made a good middle move (that’s call 1 to call 2) gaining in lengths and being within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call, even if it faded down the stretch
0 = any other line

The best definition I can offer for a “usable” line is;
“any line where the horse shows it had an impact on the outcome of the race”
The most important words here are “had an impact on the outcome of the race”.
Obviously a horse that finished 1st,2nd or 3rd had an impact on the outcome of the race and was trying to win the race
Any horse that is running 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls are obviously having an impact on the race, even if they fade down the stretch.
Horses that show they make a good middle move, as noted above, are impacting the race at the second call, even if they fade down the stretch. Generally, these types of lines will show the horse moving into 2nd or 3rd position or even taking the lead at the second call and then fading down the stretch.

[For The Lead]

Ok, here’s the second of the two example races.

I know it’s from the Racing Form of more than 20 years ago, but that’s what the follow ups have… Examples from the old Racing Form! Do the best that you can with it. The idea here is to pick contenders and lines for those contenders AND to pick the non contenders. Make a determination as to why you think contenders are contenders. Make a determination as to why you think the non contenders are non contenders. Without telling you 'what' to look at, make sure you consider everything...the follow up does.

Here’s the horses.
Look at each horse.
Do the +, (+) and 0
Label each horse
Pick the contenders AND the non-contenders
Once you have the contenders, pick lines for each one

Now in the follow up example, they asked you to finish the process by entering your contenders and pacelines into the program(s) of that day. I understand that there are those of you that don’t have that type of manual entry software. That’s ‘OK’. I’ll give everyone an opportunity to do what they can and then I’ll post the race with the contenders and lines marked as well as the non contenders eliminated. There will also be comments on each horse and, of course, the results.

[DaveEdwards]

FLT,

I've gone over it again & what I was thinking about were the definitions from the Red Manual (p16 on the pdf) and Follow Up 56 (p30 on the pdf).

There's no issue to clear up really. There is a little more latitude in what can be accepted as a + line in FU 56 included 3rd & 4th position finishes, depending on the pace of the race the horse was racing in.

As I alluded to in my post above, as with most things relating to the Methodology there are no rules. Each individual situation ought to be judged on it's merits. The issue I was questioning about definitions on the overlap between + & (+) races probably doesn't really need exploring further as both are acceptable as line selections.

This does raise a couple of further questions however:

1) At what point is a horse considered to have gone out of form & not expected to return in the next race?
My own thoughts are through form cycle analysis and also how it is performing against the POR it has faced recently. Clearly the POR can show an excusable 0 line due to the horse just not being able to compete.

2) In latter issues of the FU when talking about the best of last 3 (which I acknowledge may not be to everyone's taste) The Doc suggests not using a line where the BL was 7.5 or over. This in itself raises further questions:
a) Was the 7.5L a top end of the (+) which would be qualified by the fact the POR was too hot?
b) The formula that were a part of the latter programs were better able to handle such races?

3) Is it too late to claim a both ways exacta on yesterday's post?

[DaveEdwards]

FTL 2nd Example Race.

Same approach as yesterday for me. I made an elementary mistake yesterday in not giving the leader enough credit for being able to control the pace, which indeed it did as the fractions showed……..

Bold Current – Already this is trickier. Race is over 7F & here we have a horse that has proven to be competitive in sprints over 6F (albeit Mdns) and very much not so over 1m 1/16th. Evidence that this horse tries for the lead. I’ll take a tentative EP for this horse.

Quick The Tiger – All races over 6F and all wins when the 1C was 22:0. Failed to win on the 3 occasions it faced sub 22:0. Mixture or running styles. P.

Flame Driven – SP. Wins over 6.5F & 1m, so he gets 7F. Bumped in last race so that can be excused.

Heza Pepper – SP. Appeared to lose position in last race, but no other data available as to why.

Doc Murray – P. Likes to stay close with the pace. Possible pace setter here. Not a natural leader and so probably a throw out.

Agitate Borincano – U, looks to be struggling here without looking at the pacelines.

Murphy’s Gang – Took the lead in it’s last race over 1m. Not it’s usual running style. Possibly set pace here & then collapse.

Dirty Old Man – S - A slight move towards the end of it’s last race gaining 2L between the SC & finish.

Big Bad Wolf – S. May find the 7F trip a little on the sharp side as it appears to do it’s best running at the end of it’s route races.

As we have more evidence of Doc Murray being up with the pace in it’s races I am going to take it’s last line of 22:1 46:1 10 as the pace of the race.
All lines will be equalised if required on the basis of 6.2 seconds per 1/2F as per Jim Bradshaw’s Match Up.

Initials used from now on

Anticipated POR:
22:1 46:1 10

BC – Showed good run against a faster pace on 9th March, however, it’s last two races against a slower pace at the 4F mark were shockers. Out of form & out.

QTT
24th May 6F 22:0 45:00 11 5-4 5-5 4-4 1-0.5
Overcoming a faster pace in it’s last race. Now the horse to beat.

FD – last line is excused.
27th Apr 1M 46:00 14 1:39 3-2.5 1-hd 1-hd 1-0.5
This horse is most certainly a contender. Evidence of holding on after fighting it’s way around.

HP – actually ran against some much sharper horses.
2nd May 6.5f. 21:4 44:4 1:17:2 8-6.75 5-5.5 6-4 5-2.25
Gains 1.75L after faster pace through 1C & 2C.
Using the 6.2sec per F adjustment I think this horse has the beating of FD & was clearly running on towards the end of it’s 6.5F race.

DM – already out.

AB – Out. It’s only + race was over a slower pace on 19th Apr.

MG – Out. As above. + line on 5th May not good enough here.

DOM. Beaten by QTT in tandem on 24th May
24 May 22:0 45:0 1:11.1 6-4.25 6-6 5-5.5 3-0.5

BBW – Out. Only + line over much slower pace on 1st Feb.

I make this race between Heza Pepper & Quick The Tiger. By my reckoning I feel Heza Pepper will be closer to the lead factoring in POR and so that is my selection.

Sorry about my post showing as icons for some of the times over 1 minute, but I'm sure you all catch my drift.

If it’s the other way around I want the exacta!!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

FLT,

I've gone over it again & what I was thinking about were the definitions from the Red Manual (p16 on the pdf) and Follow Up 56 (p30 on the pdf).

There's no issue to clear up really. There is a little more latitude in what can be accepted as a + line in FU 56 included 3rd & 4th position finishes, depending on the pace of the race the horse was racing in.

As I alluded to in my post above, as with most things relating to the Methodology there are no rules. Each individual situation ought to be judged on it's merits. The issue I was questioning about definitions on the overlap between + & (+) races probably doesn't really need exploring further as both are acceptable as line selections.

This does raise a couple of further questions however:

1) At what point is a horse considered to have gone out of form & not expected to return in the next race?
My own thoughts are through form cycle analysis and also how it is performing against the POR it has faced recently. Clearly the POR can show an excusable 0 line due to the horse just not being able to compete.

2) In latter issues of the FU when talking about the best of last 3 (which I acknowledge may not be to everyone's taste) The Doc suggests not using a line where the BL was 7.5 or over. This in itself raises further questions:
a) Was the 7.5L a top end of the (+) which would be qualified by the fact the POR was too hot?
b) The formula that were a part of the latter programs were better able to handle such races?

3) Is it too late to claim a both ways exacta on yesterday's post?

I'll start with your last question first.
OF COURSE NOT! Your post was quite clear on which two horses you thought would be at the wire! Chalk up an exacta for you!!

On your second question, I am one of those who do not care for "the best of last three distance surface" method, so I will bow to Bill V to answer that question.

Your first question is a good one, but not an easy one to answer.
The class of today's race and the class of its' recent races give an indication, i.e.-if today's race is at the same class/condition and the same distance/surface as its' last couple of races and the horse has shown nothing in those recent races, I would think it is safe to say the horse will not be a contender in today's race.

There are instances where a horse shows it was clearly facing a pace that was just to fast for it. It happens. But more often, a poor effort will be due to an increase in class level and/or condition level and, of course, a change in distance or surface.

Keep in mind that the higher you go in class level, the more consistent horses are, so you don't incur this problem that often. However, in the cheaper races, you can find a horse that wins a NW2L race and the very next race vs NW3L it throws in a real clunker. This is common. But be aware, this does not mean the horse went out of form "just that quick". Many times that horse will come back off that clunker race and come right back to win that same NW3L condition. Naturally, the class level (claiming price) of these races are a factor. There are many possible scenarios and you just have to be aware of them. There is no teacher like experience, so be on your toes and pay attention. Take notes.

[For The Lead]

Here are the results of the 2nd race in this set. I'll let the follow up do the talking.

[For The Lead]

ON to the horses, contenders, non-contenders and lines.

[For The Lead]

On to the comments on each horse.