Which paceline would you have picked - Pace and Cap

smilingtiger · 05-30-2011, 10:25 AM

I picked line 1 and won the race(#5 wins @$10.20). However, going back and looking everything over again, a strong argument can be made for picking line #2.
Crc 5/28/11, race 11. The paceline in question is #7 Elusive Fox. I picked the first line. Why? It had the best beyer rating, and was barely competitive. The second line back had a lesser beyer, but had a stronger pace going on, and was very competitive. Which line would you have picked?

7Elusive Fox
Line 1: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 44.2 56.1 betnLengths: 0 0 .1 4 Byr: 81
Line 2: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 43.3 55.2 betnLengths: 0 0 0 1 Byr: 78

Had I picked line 2, I would have lost the race.

rmath · 05-30-2011, 11:52 AM

if you are only looking at those two lines, then do as doc said and use the highest adj. SR where the horse finished within 7.5 lengths. There fore if I was
forced to use the Beyer #s instead of the adj. trackmaster #s line one would be my choice.
You are trying to second guess your line choices when you already said you won the race. My suggestion is to look over your losing races and not worry about your winning ones or you will start second guessing all your pace line choices.
You will always learn more from a losing race than from a winning one.
Hope this helps.

smilingtiger · 05-30-2011, 01:54 PM

I use beyers because they are easy and quick, and work for me. Had I used SR, line one was 93-03, and line 2 was 100-?. No variant given for line 2. I'm assuming it was a zero. Line one beyer was 81, and line 2 beyer was 78. I chose line 1 because of that. Higher beyer. According to my play, I won fair and square. Other people would have not because they would have picked line 2. Line 2 makes horse #7 shine on all readouts. #5 was the winner @ $10.20.

clore1030 · 05-30-2011, 02:38 PM

I would not have used the second line as a 43 and change half-mile is way off the norm. Honestly, I suspect a timer malfunction.

As far as the "-" where the DRF variant should have appeared, I believe that's an indication of a new three-year-record being achieved that day. Thus another reason to be suspicious about race times that day.

rmath · 05-30-2011, 05:17 PM

Clore , in one of your earlier postsyou said that at Belmont 6f. races the winner came from your top5, #1 epr 56% and #1 FW 44% . How are they holding up this year?
thanks,
rmath

For The Lead · 05-30-2011, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smilingtiger

I picked line 1 and won the race(#5 wins @$10.20). However, going back and looking everything over again, a strong argument can be made for picking line #2.
Crc 5/28/11, race 11. The paceline in question is #7 Elusive Fox. I picked the first line. Why? It had the best beyer rating, and was barely competitive. The second line back had a lesser beyer, but had a stronger pace going on, and was very competitive. Which line would you have picked?

7Elusive Fox
Line 1: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 44.2 56.1 betnLengths: 0 0 .1 4 Byr: 81
Line 2: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 43.3 55.2 betnLengths: 0 0 0 1 Byr: 78

Had I picked line 2, I would have lost the race.

Forget about speed ratings, adjusted speed ratings, Beyer numbers and the like. I think the best advice would come from "Doc" himself.
The LAST LINE IS THE LINE...unless there is a "good reason" to go back ONE LINE.\

Now as long as you understand what a "good reason" is, this is a simple, straight forward and reliable line selection method.

clore1030 · 05-30-2011, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmath

Clore , in one of your earlier postsyou said that at Belmont 6f. races the winner came from your top5, #1 epr 56% and #1 FW 44% . How are they holding up this year?
thanks,
rmath

So far this season, EPR has managed 33% of winners at 6F ranked # 1.

CPR and FW are both strong at 47% and BL has them at 53%.

rmath · 05-30-2011, 10:01 PM

thanks for the quick response and the update.

tom · 05-31-2011, 09:52 PM

I would caution using the Beyer numbers to separate pace lines because the programs do not use the Beyer variant a to make adjustments. Using them to pick contenders seems reasonable, but I would then enter both in your program and pick the better one from there. If you make a hose a contender, you want to be sure to use the line that reflects this.

alydar_ David · 05-31-2011, 10:37 PM

There are as many ways to choose pacelines as there are colors in the rainbow. Volumes have been written about it. I suggest you check the archives, smilingtiger.

Read 50 or 60 zealous posts and your head will spin like Linda Blair in The Exorcist.

In the end see what floats your boat. Find what works for you.

I do agree with Tom though. Selecting a paceline based on a Beyer number (which includes a subjective variant) which the program doesn't account for doesn't make a lot of...*warning- pun alert*...horse sense.

05-30-2011, 01:54 PM	#3
smilingtiger AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 24	Which paceline would you have picked I use beyers because they are easy and quick, and work for me. Had I used SR, line one was 93-03, and line 2 was 100-?. No variant given for line 2. I'm assuming it was a zero. Line one beyer was 81, and line 2 beyer was 78. I chose line 1 because of that. Higher beyer. According to my play, I won fair and square. Other people would have not because they would have picked line 2. Line 2 makes horse #7 shine on all readouts. #5 was the winner @ $10.20.

05-30-2011, 02:38 PM	#4
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Beyer beware I would not have used the second line as a 43 and change half-mile is way off the norm. Honestly, I suspect a timer malfunction. As far as the "-" where the DRF variant should have appeared, I believe that's an indication of a new three-year-record being achieved that day. Thus another reason to be suspicious about race times that day.

05-30-2011, 10:01 PM	#8
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	clore1030 thanks for the quick response and the update.

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05-30-2011, 10:25 AM	#1
smilingtiger AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 24	Which paceline would you have picked I picked line 1 and won the race(#5 wins @$10.20). However, going back and looking everything over again, a strong argument can be made for picking line #2. Crc 5/28/11, race 11. The paceline in question is #7 Elusive Fox. I picked the first line. Why? It had the best beyer rating, and was barely competitive. The second line back had a lesser beyer, but had a stronger pace going on, and was very competitive. Which line would you have picked? 7Elusive Fox Line 1: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 44.2 56.1 betnLengths: 0 0 .1 4 Byr: 81 Line 2: 5fT: fracSplits: 21.1 43.3 55.2 betnLengths: 0 0 0 1 Byr: 78 Had I picked line 2, I would have lost the race.

05-30-2011, 11:52 AM	#2
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	pace line if you are only looking at those two lines, then do as doc said and use the highest adj. SR where the horse finished within 7.5 lengths. There fore if I was forced to use the Beyer #s instead of the adj. trackmaster #s line one would be my choice. You are trying to second guess your line choices when you already said you won the race. My suggestion is to look over your losing races and not worry about your winning ones or you will start second guessing all your pace line choices. You will always learn more from a losing race than from a winning one. Hope this helps.

05-30-2011, 05:17 PM	#5
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	clore1030 Clore , in one of your earlier postsyou said that at Belmont 6f. races the winner came from your top5, #1 epr 56% and #1 FW 44% . How are they holding up this year? thanks, rmath

05-31-2011, 09:52 PM	#9
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	I would caution using the Beyer numbers to separate pace lines because the programs do not use the Beyer variant a to make adjustments. Using them to pick contenders seems reasonable, but I would then enter both in your program and pick the better one from there. If you make a hose a contender, you want to be sure to use the line that reflects this.

05-31-2011, 10:37 PM	#10
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	There are as many ways to choose pacelines as there are colors in the rainbow. Volumes have been written about it. I suggest you check the archives, smilingtiger. Read 50 or 60 zealous posts and your head will spin like Linda Blair in The Exorcist. In the end see what floats your boat. Find what works for you. I do agree with Tom though. Selecting a paceline based on a Beyer number (which includes a subjective variant) which the program doesn't account for doesn't make a lot of...warning- pun alert...horse sense.