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09-26-2017, 04:39 PM | #31 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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FL 7 Chart
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09-26-2017, 04:41 PM | #32 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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At TDN today the expected uncomfortable on the lead horse held on to win anyway. At FL the upfront horse had cover from a NC and then passed late to win. Looks like Bob handicapped (matched) them traditionally and got both.
Pook Last edited by The Pook; 09-26-2017 at 05:20 PM. |
09-26-2017, 04:43 PM | #33 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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Another paceless race tomorrow: TDN3
Pook |
09-27-2017, 02:37 AM | #34 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Paceless races
Just for the heck of it I thought I would work these two races, one from FL and the other from TDN. The reason is because these two races were chosen for lack of any early horses. What became really interesting is that in both races the ENERGY program identified the winner’s ESP as EARLY and the program determined the variegate to be EARLY. In one race the match up found that one of the early horses owned the first two fractions. Always a PLUS for an early horse. I used my usual guidelines. Here are the screen shots for each race.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-27-2017, 02:43 AM | #35 |
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Finger Lakes
The FL screen shots from ENERGY.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-27-2017, 02:45 AM | #36 |
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Tdn
The TDN screen shots
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
09-27-2017, 09:26 AM | #37 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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Hi FTL,
I'm glad you posted the Energizer screens. First you pointed out an inconsistency in my approach. This is a work in progress so its okay. Secondly they confirmed the screens in RDSS. I didn't show those screens that got me to the decision ones. Here they are: |
09-27-2017, 09:32 AM | #38 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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Based on them I eliminated #2 at FL and #8 at TDN. Those were the runners that looked to be in a lead that they weren't comfortable with.
The TDN race was where I screwed up. It is the first fraction we are concerned with here, not the EP as shown with the bars. This screen: |
09-27-2017, 09:34 AM | #39 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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Which would have resulted in this screen:
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09-27-2017, 09:50 AM | #40 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,544
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In that scenario #8 would have been the single choice. I know it took the lead and kept it, but we can't predict them perfectly. So Energizer and RDSS concurred. They are using the same info. And the FL race didn't work. The early hung on.
When looking for these races I am not diving into numbers. They are quick scans as Richie does, looking for absences of 1's at the first call. So far I am surprised at how predictable they have been. In both races yesterday the race callers remarked at how slow the initial pace was. Perfect! I use your guidelines for contenders. Toss the front end which may or may not include 1 or more runners. The last part is more tricky. I think in most cases you want the runners most closely positioned behind. Maybe the runner with the biggest blue stick. Pook |
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