Preakness thoughts

[DontSayDont]

Why are horses that come out of the K.Derby more favored to win over (the new shooters) horses that didn't run in the derby?

The main reason I can see that they haven't fared as well as the derby contenders is track class. Going from CD to PIM would be a small drop in track class and most of the new shooters are coming from races run at tracks that are of lower class than PIM. Are these horse's taking a double class raise, first by track class and then by race class?

Second is about Classic Empire and all the write ups about his impressive run albeit having had a dreadful start and then running wide and more trouble later in the race. Ok, that all sounds good BUT wouldn't that also made him work much harder than Always Dreaming which would seem to have taken more of any reserve energy that might be needed in the Preakness. I think workouts show more of how well a horse is feeling than what his/her race performance ability might be.

If I was to use a race car anology it would be: 2 cars started with the same amount of gas in race 1 (KYD) and car 1 had a smooth start and easy trip while car 2 had to hit the gas peddle/brake peddle multiple times. Now the same 2 cars have to run in another race, the question then becomes will there be enough gas in the tank to finish the second race for car 2?

So baring any scratches today or tomorrow I will be playing exacta's of Always Dreaming / Classic Empire - Gunnevera - Conquest Mo Money.

Good skill to all who play.

Ray