Belmont Talk

[JimG]

The last leg of the triple crown is upon us and the forum contest is coming down to the wire. Thanks to all of you for your participation.

Here are the entries in what could be a nice betting race.

[Bill Lyster]

Take this with a grain of salt, because I already shot my wad and missed on the first two.

The FPLR of this race is the #2, IMO, Spangled Star, and he ran and closed, however slightly against a one turn mile pace of 23.4-45.6-109.3, running 5-5-4 and 5.5-4.6-4.0 lengths back. Even if you adjust for one turn by adding a second to the 6f time to get 1:10.3 this horse should be in contention with the expected slower pace of this race.

One thing odd strikes me about this race is that most of the favorites won their route races with positive E/L's, which seems counterintuitive for a race of this length. Even Ice Box ran positive E/L's until his late run from Mars in the Derby.

Almost all of the PPs from Gulfstream routes had winning horses with positive E/L's and not many of them have run against what could be 111+ and 136+ interior fractions. That being said the best mile times come from the #11 on or near lead at 136.4 and the #1, running from 4th in 136.2 (4th by 4 in 135.4). To me there does not appear to be must early competition.

Good luck to all tomorrow. I will watch only.

Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Take this with a grain of salt, because I already shot my wad and missed on the first two.

The FPLR of this race is the #2, IMO, Spangled Star, and he ran and closed, however slightly against a one turn mile pace of 23.4-45.6-109.3, running 5-5-4 and 5.5-4.6-4.0 lengths back. Even if you adjust for one turn by adding a second to the 6f time to get 1:10.3 this horse should be in contention with the expected slower pace of this race.

One thing odd strikes me about this race is that most of the favorites won their route races with positive E/L's, which seems counterintuitive for a race of this length. Even Ice Box ran positive E/L's until his late run from Mars in the Derby.

Almost all of the PPs from Gulfstream routes had winning horses with positive E/L's and not many of them have run against what could be 111+ and 136+ interior fractions. That being said the best mile times come from the #11 on or near lead at 136.4 and the #1, running from 4th in 136.2 (4th by 4 in 135.4). To me there does not appear to be must early competition.

Good luck to all tomorrow. I will watch only.

Bill

Does all this mean that FIRST DUDE wins in wire to wire fashion?

[Bill Lyster]

Well, to tell you the truth I'm waiting for Mikesal to weigh in on this, because he seems to have a really good understanding of how and when a horse can win on the front end based on the results of several Matchup races.

Mike, oh Mike, where are you?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Well, to tell you the truth I'm waiting for Mikesal to weigh in on this, because he seems to have a really good understanding of how and when a horse can win on the front end based on the results of several Matchup races.

Mike, oh Mike, where are you?

Hi guys.
My daughter is graduating High School this morning...
Be here before the race....

Mike

[SilentRun]

If I may voice my humble opinion....I am not a "Match Up" person but I feel that First Dude will expend too much energy on the front end to last 12F.
I predict that he will be overtaken during the stretch run by Ice Box, Stately
Victor...or some other contender.

Ernie

[mikesal57]

Hello All..

I believe that over the years speed had its advantage at the 1 1/2 Belmont Stakes
With most of these out classed vs Graded Stakes and most are closers I believe someone close to the lead can win..
ok lets get the contenders..

i see the 3-7-8-11 ...

betting the 3 & 7

4 box the rest in ex

mike

[tfm]

Don't like Ice Box or First Dude. And, the 10 finished ahead of the 5 in the LA Derby and will be significantly LONGER odds.

#10, Stay Put, to win.

[JEFF KENT]

Old style SARTIN cont. top 5 speed ratings or within 2 points
equals=#2-3-4-5-6-8-9-11-USING BRIS PP,S

TOP 5 ON VALM adjusted for trips,max credit 3 lengths

#2-line-1
#3-line-2
#4-line-1
#6-line-2
#8-line-1

VAL M. PICKS#3-2-8-6-4

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations to Mikesal and kiltman for hitting with Drosselmeyer today! Looking forward to Jim's tallying of the final standings and the fun part - handing out all the prizes!

Ted