Preakness Talk

[JimG]

Well, the next leg from old Hilltop will be on us soon. I see that Lookin at Lucky is probable for the Preakness and Super Saver just breezed.

In this day and time it is tough to come back and run good races back to back on two weeks notice but can be done.

Unlike the Derby, drawing an inside post can be a good thing at Pimlico. The inside is usually where you want to be. Borel may find some company there this time. Gomez will not be riding Lookin at Lucky.

Here is a list of probable and possible starters for the field:

Confirmed starters

Horse Trainer/jockey Last race
Super Saver Pletcher/Borel 1st Kentucky Derby
Aikenite Pletcher/Castellano 2nd Derby Trial
Dublin Lukas/Thompson 7th Kentucky Derby
Northern Giant Lukas/TBA 9th Arkansas Derby
First Dude Romans/Dominguez 3rd Blue Grass
Hurricane Ike Sadler/Albarado 1st Derby Trial
Caracortado Machowsky/Atkinson 4th Santa Anita Derby
Pleasant Prince W. Ward/Leparoux 3rd Derby Trial
Schoolyard Dreams Ryan/Coa 4th Wood Memorial

Probable

Paddy O'Prado Romans/Desormeaux 3rd Kentucky Derby
Lookin At Lucky Baffert/TBA 6th Kentucky Derby
Jackson Bend Zito/Smith 12th Kentucky Derby
A Little Warm T. Dutrow/Velazquez 2nd Louisiana Derby

Possible

Yawanna Twist R. Dutrow/TBA 2nd Illinois Derby

Note: A maximum of 14 horses can start

[Bill Lyster]

5.5 dirt, last 11 races
4 wire to wire
6 pressing from no more than 3 L off pace
1 sustained from 7 off

6.0 furlongs, 20 races
10 wire to wire
4 E/P, no more than 2 back at SC
6 pressers no more than 4 back

Note: only 2 of 20 were worse than second at stretch call

8.5 furlongs, last 13 races
3 wire to wire (or less than 1 L off)
4 EP or P, no more than 2.5 off at first call ( half mile)
6 SP or S, most within 4.5 L at 6 f mark (one 5.5 , one 8 back)

Note only two not first or second at stretch call; both of those were third by 1/2 length, deep closers have already made lead by the stretch call.

9 furlongs, 4 races
1 wire to wire
2 E/P, no more than 1/2 off at 4F, hd off 6f
1 sustained (maiden claiming race)



TURF RACES
5.5 Furlongs, last 15 races
4 wire to wire
5 EP/P, 2 or less at 2nd call
6 SP/S, most are 5 or less, one at 8 back

Only 1 horse more than 3 back at stretch call

8.5 furlongs, last 7 races
2 wire to wire
3 pressed from 3rd, no more than 3.5 back at 6f,
2 sustained, 7 L and 5L back


Mile, 1 race
Sustained closed 6-7-5-3-1

THE PREVAILING THEME SEEMS TO BE MAKE YOUR MOVE EARLY AND BE WITH LEADERS AT TOP OF STRETCH OR ELSE YOU WILL NOT WIN VERY OFTEN.

Preakness pace looks to be moderate to slow and the old Super Saver could have it all his way until Caracortado joins in at top of stretch.

Good luck to all,

[JimG]

Official Preakness Entries:

[JimG]

At this point, I am looking at something like

1-6-8-12 ex and tri box.

Small win bets on 1 and 6.

Jim

[JimG]

Congrats to Tom on hitting the $3 exacta and Whitejc for hitting the $2 exacta.

Several had win bets on Lucky but First Dude proved pretty elusive for most.

For certain, Tom will be our new leader. I will have results up sometime tomorrow. It is also my wife's birthday tomorrow so I will leave it up to you folks to guess which task takes precedence.

Jim

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations Tom - step to the head of the line! And great job, Whitejc! And do share please, if you can, what you saw in First Dude. Though I notice, for example, Tom, that several other HTR users had him in various orders of preference, he was by no means universally admired...

Same question to Whitejc!

Ted