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Old 07-13-2015, 03:43 PM   #31
mowens33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capcondo View Post
You're right on this one Pook. My post mortem analysis shows that the 9 had gotten the lead twice in 24.2 and 24.3. The 8 had the lead once in 24.3. But, the 8 was 3rd in the tandem race at the 1st call. The 12, on the other hand, had the lead 6 times at the 1st call including the tandem race and 22.1 in a sprint on the dirt.

Tim
Here was my thought process: I had the 12 going to the lead (24, 48, and 72) and did have him marked as lone E, but with 3 EP types insider I would have expected some pace pressure not (26.0, 50.0, and 74.0)? Belmont is not a track I wager on, and that is one crazy starting position so I’m not sure being inside has any benefit? I went on the assumption that it did, if it’s not the case shame on me for not finding out.
So with that being said I still would have had a hard time calling the 12 lone early, even though if you look up, I did have him going to the lead and is the only horse I had labeled E.
Looking at what I just wrote and how the race unfolded Pook your correct this was an opportunity missed!
Mike
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Old 07-13-2015, 08:45 PM   #32
The Pook
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A question for Raceman Bob and Cigar on Fort Erie Race 5

I am glad that the good price at Fort Erie did not go to waste and that your particular Matchup process landed you there. You went OTE but didn't elaborate.

I was thinking OTE too but found those horses not too attractive so reverted to fast earlies. What was it about the 6 that worked for you?

It is preferred (Raceman) that something about your Matching process be included with your choices. Particularly when it works we can see how you got there. I and many others actually read other players written notes. It helps to broaden our Matchup minds.

You guys are established Challenge players and good Matchers and you usually enlighten us with some thought process but you have left us(me) wanting on this race.

Pook
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Old 07-13-2015, 08:57 PM   #33
The Pook
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mowens33 View Post
Here was my thought process: I had the 12 going to the lead (24, 48, and 72) and did have him marked as lone E, but with 3 EP types insider I would have expected some pace pressure not (26.0, 50.0, and 74.0)? Belmont is not a track I wager on, and that is one crazy starting position so I’m not sure being inside has any benefit? I went on the assumption that it did, if it’s not the case shame on me for not finding out.
So with that being said I still would have had a hard time calling the 12 lone early, even though if you look up, I did have him going to the lead and is the only horse I had labeled E.
Looking at what I just wrote and how the race unfolded Pook your correct this was an opportunity missed!
Mike
Yeah I know Mike it is so easy to see after. To make that call as a lone early out in post 12 before the race.....not so easy.

Pook
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Old 07-14-2015, 07:58 AM   #34
raceman5
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I

am not really much of a writer guys. As far as the 6 horse i figured being these are cheap horses that the 2-3-4 would go out and do battle. The 6 horse can win off fractions of 23.1-46.3-113 and 23.4-47-112 alot of horses in the race don't even have a winning race showing. Plus the 6 was dropping to where he belonged. I usually don't pay attention to class unless it is a G-1 or G-2 race but what i am finding is there is alot of trainer minipulation in NW2L NW3L and these races of 1y and 2y. I retired 6 mths ago and spent the first 3 mths reading and digesting Jim Bradshaw's Matchup 8 mth update until it became part of me. I read this board every day and too many of you are worried about building models, track bias, track adjustments. Everytime i read this stuff i think Jim must be turning over in his grave. When i print the bris condensed pp's there is no E1-E2-LP or speed rating showing. No trainer stats, odds last race, wt or jock. Just give me the pace lines and let me go to work. I tried software and Ted was even nice enough to let me take the software for a test run. Bottom line guys is i cannot handicap off a computer i am old school i need that hard copy in my hands. I would recomend reading Jim's 8 mth update until it becomes automatic that when u open the pp's your eyes go left to the first call. And Richie a big shout out to you who put your hard work into teaching the Hats stuff.

Bob
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Old 07-14-2015, 09:11 AM   #35
cigar
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FE R5 - Workup

Pook, for the next three week I am busy and will not get to my regular workup. I went into a little more detail on my selection for the Fort Erie Race.
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Old 07-14-2015, 09:13 AM   #36
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Fe r5

BL/BL - Hide the FAV.
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Old 07-14-2015, 10:56 AM   #37
mowens33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5 View Post
am not really much of a writer guys. As far as the 6 horse i figured being these are cheap horses that the 2-3-4 would go out and do battle. The 6 horse can win off fractions of 23.1-46.3-113 and 23.4-47-112 alot of horses in the race don't even have a winning race showing. Plus the 6 was dropping to where he belonged. I usually don't pay attention to class unless it is a G-1 or G-2 race but what i am finding is there is alot of trainer minipulation in NW2L NW3L and these races of 1y and 2y. I retired 6 mths ago and spent the first 3 mths reading and digesting Jim Bradshaw's Matchup 8 mth update until it became part of me. I read this board every day and too many of you are worried about building models, track bias, track adjustments. Everytime i read this stuff i think Jim must be turning over in his grave. When i print the bris condensed pp's there is no E1-E2-LP or speed rating showing. No trainer stats, odds last race, wt or jock. Just give me the pace lines and let me go to work. I tried software and Ted was even nice enough to let me take the software for a test run. Bottom line guys is i cannot handicap off a computer i am old school i need that hard copy in my hands. I would recomend reading Jim's 8 mth update until it becomes automatic that when u open the pp's your eyes go left to the first call. And Richie a big shout out to you who put your hard work into teaching the Hats stuff.

Bob
Bob, with all that being said I think it would be great to read your thought process when handicapping our Match up races. This way we can see it from the purest from, without all the other handicapping angles we as a group sometimes use (me included) in our final selection process.
I know myself I try and matching using Jim Bradshaw’s 5 step method and remembering what he said:
Horses will rarely be influenced by the trainer, jockey, or the track. In isolated cases these three components may decide the outcome of the race. If you insist on relying on these elements, it is impossible to learn the Match Up.
For me this is still a work in process!
Thanks, Mike
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Old 07-14-2015, 01:24 PM   #38
raceman5
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Ok

Mike, i will give it a try next time. You pretty dam good yourself when it comes to the match up, your probably one of the best as far as consistency goes. I see your from Cambridge Mass. I lived in Connecticut for 56 years before moving to Florida.

Bob
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Old 07-14-2015, 01:58 PM   #39
The Pook
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Bob and Cigar thankyou!

Pook
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