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09-04-2009, 10:17 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 319
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Reckless
The term "chaos race" can mean many things, and of course, is subjective.
I consider chaos in racing and other venues as a condition which has instability and has a low probability of predicting an orderly outcome or result when comparing the variants. example: route turf race consisting of more than half the field with no turf or route experience. A field of horses with many lines, no wins , and also few running lines which qualify as useable pacelines . All races in which all of horses fail to meet the top conditions for which the race was written. These are only a few examples, but the main point being, it's a race wherein no logical conclusion can be reached using standard handicapping procedures. There is no "one" answer which defines a chaos race. Take your pick. Hope this helps, Bob Cochran Last edited by Bob Cochran; 09-04-2009 at 10:18 PM. Reason: typo |
09-05-2009, 08:43 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: near Philadelphia Park
Posts: 259
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Thanks,
Bob, for your reply.
As primarily a longshot devotee, I like it when there is no logical order to things. I've always felt that if the race is indeed 'wide open' then why take a short price and bet the favorites? This approach has helped me cash some nice-priced mutuels over the years but has also resulted in some horrible results, such as the time in the late 80s when a 4-5 favorite at old Atlantic City Race Course was 1-for-45 lifetime!! I jumped into that spot with both fists, and when that rat won by five, the thump you heard was me banging my head against the Coke machine. I never felt so stupid in my life (up to that point, of course). |
09-05-2009, 11:30 AM | #13 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-05-2009, 11:37 AM | #14 |
Former member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,136
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This is like the blind leading the blind here. Dude goes FOUR deep in a 7 horse field and still can't pick the winner. After the race, he explains it by deeming it a CHAOTIC race. This really makes sense.
But, if this weren't enough, rather than seeing it for what it was, that the dude hasn't a CLUE, someone else comes along and asks him to explain his CHAOS theory. This is beyond comical. |
09-05-2009, 12:44 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Tfm
Hi
I think you have made your point You have an opinion on what happened in the race. I had an opinion and blew the race even though the readouts said to bet the 7 Bob has his opinions on the race and what he saw when he made the decisions he made, This time he too was wrong Now Bob was asked a direct question by another member and he gave his answer Lets respect the readers opinions. they can read and gather them selfs and we all can learn and move on Hopefully next time we all win |
09-05-2009, 05:06 PM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
I don't know this to be 100% true, but I don't think it was Bob who created the chaos race theory. This is something that has been around for quite some time. Here's some more information for you on "Chaos Races", taken from an internet handicapping site. If you use a computer program to crunch raw data into some type of final rating - and you have chosen a good and representative race from which to enter the data (that is, you've avoided the "garbage in - garbage out" problem) then any favorite that rates poorly in those numbers should be considered as a potentially weak favorite. When a horse has shown that it can't or won't run to the pars, or pace demands of today's race - how could it possibly be considered for favoritism? A response might be, "But what if they're all a bunch of nags and none of 'em can run?" Okay - then you have what's been termed a "chaos" race - hard to figure, hard to handicap, and hard to predict. In that kind of race where every runner is weak, the favorite becomes a solid bet-against candidate
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-06-2009, 01:59 PM | #17 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Basing Ray Talbout's, Pittsburgh Phil's, Andy Beyer's. or ANYONE'S abilities on a single contest means NOTHING.
Say I am living in Belgium and I pay to see Alan Iverson play basketball in an exhibition game in Paris. I have read about him, know his abilities and style of play, but when I SAW him he was lackluster. Am I to conclude all the accolade about him are false or was he just regressing to the mean as all players do at times? SAMPLE ERROR abounds in life and sports. NO ONE is correct even half of the time. Judge someone in the long term......
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
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