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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 10-18-2017, 10:51 PM   #81
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FTL,

I wanted to ask how you go about handling trouble lines.

The ones such as stumbled at gate and checked are obvious
but such as wide, bore out or in etc.
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:43 AM   #82
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FTL,

I wanted to ask how you go about handling trouble lines.

The ones such as stumbled at gate and checked are obvious
but such as wide, bore out or in etc.
Ok, the last line says “wide” or “bore out/in”.
Go to the next line.
If the next line is a “0” line with no excuse, then I would use the trouble line. Otherwise you would be throwing the horse out unfairly.
If the next line is a “+” race or a “(+)” race, use that line.

Here's more information on the subject.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8784&page=3
It is post #28.
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Old 10-19-2017, 11:44 AM   #83
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Thank you
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:21 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Shoeless,

As I said a couple of posts back, DON’T BE CONFUSED!
I maintain that horses ‘off’ more than 90 days win 5% or less. This covers ALL races at any class or surface.



In the above post, among horses ‘off’ more than 80 days (which cuts off 10 days from my recommendation) there were 19 winners. Now, 19 (winners) divided by 250 (total races) =7.6% (win percentage), which is slightly higher than my stat, but NOT accurately compared.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.
The 40.4% win percentage is arrived at by taking 19 (winners) divided by 47 (horses ‘off’ more than 80 days) = 40.4%. Not exactly a comparison of apples to apples when taken vs. my stat.
DON’T BE CONFUSED.

Let me add some more information for you.
Somewhere in all of my posts, I acknowledged that horses at the high end of the class ladder win more frequently after being ‘off’ more than 90 days than do horses at the lower end of the class ladder. But, that doesn’t change my overall stat. The fact of the matter is, if you are only playing the high end of the class ladder, you are not going to play very often.
Also, “TURF” or “GRASS” racing only accounts for approximately 10% of all races run each year, year after year. So again, if your play is going to be limited to turf/grass racing at the high end of the class ladder, you not going to be playing much.
The help I am offering to you and anyone else reading this is for the day to day, bread and butter races that make up the very large majority of the races we encounter day in and day out.

Good Luck!
FTL,
I noticed that since the start of Belmont in the spring, and following on through Saratoga, that a greater % of races at the main Eastern tracks are being carded as grass races. does that apparent observation point you towards any significant areas of your data base that might become more important?

Thanks,
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Old 10-19-2017, 06:28 PM   #85
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FTL,

About the turf races. I reread after my post that you do not play them. With the increase in turf races at major venues has that changed at all?

Also, from your ongoing data base I take it that there are no real standout issues relating to turf races. Is that so?

Many thanks for all of your posts.
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Old 10-19-2017, 10:34 PM   #86
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FTL

I took your advice about looking at the PP'S from the bottom
up and it seems to help me. There was a race tonight at CT where
I noticed since the horse was claimed it wins every other race and tonight
was coming off a 5th place finish. The horse won at the wire didn't pay
much as it was bet down at the end but as my dear friend Pino used to
say better then losing.

Also Energy had the race early and went to the rank screen as you
suggested where it was first and had the best 3rd fraction. I would
have posted a screen shot but I am not that adept with computers

Thanks
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Old 10-20-2017, 04:09 AM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
FTL,
I noticed that since the start of Belmont in the spring, and following on through Saratoga, that a greater % of races at the main Eastern tracks are being carded as grass races. does that apparent observation point you towards any significant areas of your data base that might become more important?

Thanks,
Bill,

The short answer is NO.
I wish there was something I could point towards that would be beneficial. If I could, I certainly would.

I’m guessing that by “main” eastern tracks you are referring to the New York circuit.

Saratoga, which basically runs for a month (August), has always run more turf/grass races than the national average, so that is nothing new. But their meet is so short it is really meaningless. I mean, perhaps Saratoga gets 35 days of racing during their meet. At 9 races per day, that comes to 315 total races. Let’s say 30% are scheduled for the grass. How many are lost to weather? How many are maidens? How many just have horses with little to no grass experience? How many truly playable races remain? Naturally, the same trainers and horses that are at Saratoga are also at Belmont and/or Aqueduct during the summer and looking for grass races. They, too, have the same problems. As I noted in the quote you included in your post, grass racing is only viable at the highest levels, in my opinion, which really cuts down on the number of playable races. Also, it’s almost impossible to keep good models on grass racing... if you do it right.

I think it is obvious that I am not a fan of grass racing. It’s not that I don’t like grass racing, there just isn’t enough of it. But keep in mind, when I am answering your question I am also speaking to others who may be reading my reply to you. So although I am not attempting to change your mind, since I know you like grass racing, I am trying to enlighten the others reading this who may not be that well informed on the subject.
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Old 10-20-2017, 04:14 AM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
FTL,

About the turf races. I reread after my post that you do not play them. With the increase in turf races at major venues has that changed at all?

Also, from your ongoing data base I take it that there are no real standout issues relating to turf races. Is that so?

Many thanks for all of your posts.
Bill,

After more than 50 years at this game, with the years from 1997 through 2014 being full time, I am now retired and no longer download races every day, therefore, I no longer have an ongoing database. But I can tell you this, with all that time invested, I have seen no indication that I would ever seriously work at grass races like I did at “other than grass races” for all the reasons I noted in the above post.

I guess another thing I should point out is, grass racing aside, during the last 20 years or so that I was playing, I never played the “major” tracks, such as Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, Del Mar, Santa Anita, etc. Years and years ago I would, but that all changed.

Funny thing is, contrary to what I just said, one of my fondest memories is the 1988 Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half at Churchill Downs. And although I don’t like telling of any of my exploits, I’ll tell this one story. In 1988 simulcasting was not what it is today. At Atlantic City Race Course they offered “early bird” wagering on the Breeders Cup. That meant you could go to the track on Friday night before the Breeders Cup races and wager on them. That is what I did. I went to the track, bought a racing form, got comfortable and handicapped the Breeders Cup races. I didn’t bet on every Breeders Cup race, but I did bet on a few. One of them was the above mentioned race. What made this memorable to me, other than the race itself, was just blind good fortune. As it turned out there was some problems with wagering at the track on Breeders Cup day and people could not wager. Now here is the important part. In those days any track offering wagering on the Breeders Cup races had their own pool, so you got whatever odds were generated by only the people who wagered at that track. So, I sat home and watched the races on TV. I got to see the winning prices AT THE TRACK. I think Great Communicator paid about $25 or $26 at the track. Since that is the horse I bet, I was happy, but naturally I was curious as to how much I was really going to get at the track where I bet. The next day, Sunday, I got the newspaper and went straight to the sports section. They showed the prices at a half a dozen of the tracks in the surrounding area, Philly, Delaware, Monmouth, etc., but none from Atlantic City. Monday night I went to the track. The first thing I did was cash my winning Breeders Cup tickets. As the teller ran my tickets through their machine, the amount I was to receive showed on a small screen. All of a sudden a large number popped up. What the hell was that, I wondered. I mean, the number increased by more than $2,200! I thought something was wrong and started looking around. The teller finished running my tickets through the machine and began paying me. No problem. Before I left the window I asked what the payoff was on the large return. Great Communicator had paid $74 and change at Atlantic City!! And I had bet $60 to win on it. You can only imagine the smile on my face. And that is why it is so memorable to me.
Here’s a link to that memorable (for me) race if you would like to watch it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiY9bHHgpvo
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Old 10-20-2017, 08:00 AM   #89
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FTL

Do you keep models of tracks you play?

Jeff
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Old 10-20-2017, 01:41 PM   #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Bill,

The short answer is NO.
I wish there was something I could point towards that would be beneficial. If I could, I certainly would.

I’m guessing that by “main” eastern tracks you are referring to the New York circuit.

Saratoga, which basically runs for a month (August), has always run more turf/grass races than the national average, so that is nothing new. But their meet is so short it is really meaningless. I mean, perhaps Saratoga gets 35 days of racing during their meet. At 9 races per day, that comes to 315 total races. Let’s say 30% are scheduled for the grass. How many are lost to weather? How many are maidens? How many just have horses with little to no grass experience? How many truly playable races remain? Naturally, the same trainers and horses that are at Saratoga are also at Belmont and/or Aqueduct during the summer and looking for grass races. They, too, have the same problems. As I noted in the quote you included in your post, grass racing is only viable at the highest levels, in my opinion, which really cuts down on the number of playable races. Also, it’s almost impossible to keep good models on grass racing... if you do it right.

I think it is obvious that I am not a fan of grass racing. It’s not that I don’t like grass racing, there just isn’t enough of it. But keep in mind, when I am answering your question I am also speaking to others who may be reading my reply to you. So although I am not attempting to change your mind, since I know you like grass racing, I am trying to enlighten the others reading this who may not be that well informed on the subject.
Well, I was just hoping something might turn up. When I did the research for the CSR and Rx3 factors it was clear that in order to encompass the same number of winners, percentage-wise, for turf racing you needed to consider more horses for turf than main track racing, so your results, albeit, from most likely a vastly different point of view, appear to be in line with what I found earlier. Too bad about that.....
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