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Old 09-26-2017, 04:39 PM   #31
The Pook
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FL 7 Chart
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Old 09-26-2017, 04:41 PM   #32
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At TDN today the expected uncomfortable on the lead horse held on to win anyway. At FL the upfront horse had cover from a NC and then passed late to win. Looks like Bob handicapped (matched) them traditionally and got both.

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Old 09-26-2017, 04:43 PM   #33
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Another paceless race tomorrow: TDN3

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Old 09-27-2017, 02:37 AM   #34
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Paceless races

Just for the heck of it I thought I would work these two races, one from FL and the other from TDN. The reason is because these two races were chosen for lack of any early horses. What became really interesting is that in both races the ENERGY program identified the winner’s ESP as EARLY and the program determined the variegate to be EARLY. In one race the match up found that one of the early horses owned the first two fractions. Always a PLUS for an early horse. I used my usual guidelines. Here are the screen shots for each race.
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Old 09-27-2017, 02:43 AM   #35
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Finger Lakes

The FL screen shots from ENERGY.
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Old 09-27-2017, 02:45 AM   #36
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Tdn

The TDN screen shots
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Old 09-27-2017, 09:26 AM   #37
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Hi FTL,

I'm glad you posted the Energizer screens. First you pointed out an inconsistency in my approach. This is a work in progress so its okay. Secondly they confirmed the screens in RDSS. I didn't show those screens that got me to the decision ones. Here they are:
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Old 09-27-2017, 09:32 AM   #38
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Based on them I eliminated #2 at FL and #8 at TDN. Those were the runners that looked to be in a lead that they weren't comfortable with.

The TDN race was where I screwed up. It is the first fraction we are concerned with here, not the EP as shown with the bars.

This screen:
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Old 09-27-2017, 09:34 AM   #39
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Which would have resulted in this screen:
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Old 09-27-2017, 09:50 AM   #40
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In that scenario #8 would have been the single choice. I know it took the lead and kept it, but we can't predict them perfectly. So Energizer and RDSS concurred. They are using the same info. And the FL race didn't work. The early hung on.

When looking for these races I am not diving into numbers. They are quick scans as Richie does, looking for absences of 1's at the first call. So far I am surprised at how predictable they have been. In both races yesterday the race callers remarked at how slow the initial pace was. Perfect!

I use your guidelines for contenders. Toss the front end which may or may not include 1 or more runners. The last part is more tricky. I think in most cases you want the runners most closely positioned behind. Maybe the runner with the biggest blue stick.

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