Combining Beyer Info and Pace Info - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 04-22-2009, 01:45 PM

I ran across something the other day that might pay dividends on Derby day. DRF had a file available showing the PPs of the last 17 Derby winners (since Lil E. Tee in '91). I never usually even see Beyer Speed figures, but in the spirit of making lemonade out of the lemons you have, here goes.

15 of the 17 winners had Beyer Speed figures of 102 or greater. The only exceptions were Giacomo at 95 and Sea Hero at 91. 14 of the 17 had a Beyer of 100 or over in the race previous to the Derby and 13 of the 17 had at least two Beyers over 100 in their past performances.

Last year only five horses had a race over 100. Big Brown had two 106's, Gayego had a 103 and a 102, Eight Belles had a 100 and a 99, Z Fortune and Recapture the Glory had 102's. Of course the results were Big Brown, Eight Belles-2nd Denis of Cork,-3rd Tale of Ekati-4th and Recapture(etc) 5th. The other 2 finished 10th and 17th.
.
This year in the lists of top contenders I can only find DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PAPA CLEM with last race Beyers at or above 102. West Side Bernie at 101 could be a bubble horse. I Want Revenge and Quality Road are the only horses with 2 Beyers over 100 in 2009.

Only Big Brown won with as few as 3 lifetime prep races - his last two routes were 106-106; his first on turf was 90 - so he had 3 route preps. This makes Dunkirk a little suspect because after one 7f race at 77 he has had two routes at 9f the 2nd race at 98 and the most recent at 108.

In jms62 Pace parameters post it said that in 9 out of 11 years the data had been kept the winner came from the “PF” column of data. That would mean QUALITY ROAD, WIN WILLY, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PIONEER OF THE NILE.

I never took statistics but if you have (15/17) x (9/11) = .72 (some math wiz please verify), it looks like among the three dual qualifiers (Bold) you have a 72% chance of getting the winner out of these three.

So far the list of entrants to the Derby is not complete, so this info might change.

Bill

Tim Y · 04-22-2009, 01:50 PM

Beyers have now and will always be too much akin to final time and NOT how they arrived at it. Many of these are from the clouds types that will get to the field about the time they go into the clubhouse turn THE SECOND TIME.

tom · 04-22-2009, 02:07 PM

Using CJ Pace Figure, which are basically Beyers modified with pace, like PBS, I like Quality Road and PON. QR looks like a standout,and PON, if he runs from the back and if Dunkirk forces QR into the stretch. PON needs others to determine his changes. He will react to the pace of the others.

QR can write is own ticket - he has enough early to run where he wants to.
I look for 17 horses to be out it mid way on the final turn.

???? Does TM put out an early Derby File?
I am looking forward to running everyone against QR in Val4.

Ted Craven · 04-22-2009, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom

???? Does TM put out an early Derby File?
I am looking forward to running everyone against QR in Val4.

TrackMaster says late next Wednesday or early Thursday AM. Maybe that's early for them...

Ted

Tim Y · 04-22-2009, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tom

U
QR can write is own ticket - he has enough early to run where he wants to.
I look for 17 horses to be out it mid way on the final turn.

on three hooves? Unbridled Song couldn't do it. I have watch for over 10 years each and every horse I see with a bar shoe and they RARELY win.

jms62 · 04-22-2009, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ted craven

trackmaster says late next wednesday or early thursday am. Maybe that's early for them...

Ted

That's great.... Love handicapping Derby and Oaks day... Oaks P4 looks really chalky with Zenyatta and Rachel Alexender... And then again when the favs go down the real fireworks start.

04-22-2009, 01:45 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Combining Beyer Info and Pace Info I ran across something the other day that might pay dividends on Derby day. DRF had a file available showing the PPs of the last 17 Derby winners (since Lil E. Tee in '91). I never usually even see Beyer Speed figures, but in the spirit of making lemonade out of the lemons you have, here goes. 15 of the 17 winners had Beyer Speed figures of 102 or greater. The only exceptions were Giacomo at 95 and Sea Hero at 91. 14 of the 17 had a Beyer of 100 or over in the race previous to the Derby and 13 of the 17 had at least two Beyers over 100 in their past performances. Last year only five horses had a race over 100. Big Brown had two 106's, Gayego had a 103 and a 102, Eight Belles had a 100 and a 99, Z Fortune and Recapture the Glory had 102's. Of course the results were Big Brown, Eight Belles-2nd Denis of Cork,-3rd Tale of Ekati-4th and Recapture(etc) 5th. The other 2 finished 10th and 17th. . This year in the lists of top contenders I can only find DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PAPA CLEM with last race Beyers at or above 102. West Side Bernie at 101 could be a bubble horse. I Want Revenge and Quality Road are the only horses with 2 Beyers over 100 in 2009. Only Big Brown won with as few as 3 lifetime prep races - his last two routes were 106-106; his first on turf was 90 - so he had 3 route preps. This makes Dunkirk a little suspect because after one 7f race at 77 he has had two routes at 9f the 2nd race at 98 and the most recent at 108. In jms62 Pace parameters post it said that in 9 out of 11 years the data had been kept the winner came from the “PF” column of data. That would mean QUALITY ROAD, WIN WILLY, FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE and PIONEER OF THE NILE. I never took statistics but if you have (15/17) x (9/11) = .72 (some math wiz please verify), it looks like among the three dual qualifiers (Bold) you have a 72% chance of getting the winner out of these three. So far the list of entrants to the Derby is not complete, so this info might change. Bill

04-22-2009, 01:50 PM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Beyers have now and will always be too much akin to final time and NOT how they arrived at it. Many of these are from the clouds types that will get to the field about the time they go into the clubhouse turn THE SECOND TIME. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Pace and Cap Day Plans Info	Ted Craven	2009	7	03-19-2009 12:28 PM

04-22-2009, 02:07 PM	#3
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Using CJ Pace Figure, which are basically Beyers modified with pace, like PBS, I like Quality Road and PON. QR looks like a standout,and PON, if he runs from the back and if Dunkirk forces QR into the stretch. PON needs others to determine his changes. He will react to the pace of the others. QR can write is own ticket - he has enough early to run where he wants to. I look for 17 horses to be out it mid way on the final turn. ???? Does TM put out an early Derby File? I am looking forward to running everyone against QR in Val4.