Hollywood Turf Cup 1=1/2 Miles

[Bill Lyster]

Here are the entries:

[Bill Lyster]

Final entries, all with my pacelines chosen as best at mile call:

[Bill Lyster]

Best lines for all. Looks like several need open lead to win.

[Bill Lyster]

It looks to me like Marlang will try for a contested lead with Temple City and should be able to hold that one off. Marlang's line converts to 135.7 at the mile and only the 1 and the 4 have gained against that or a faster pace. The 1 and 4 have trade places in two head to head meetings but the 1 looks to position itself closer to the lead than the 4. However, including the two need to lead types there appears to be at least five horses that like to press or be somewhere near the lead, the 1, 2, 6, 7 and 8.

My first choice is the 4, then 1 and boxed with the 6 - Marlang

Good luck everyone.

[Bill Lyster]

chart

[Bill Lyster]

I made some mistakes in choosing my contenders based on how I perceived their positions at the mile call, so I went back and looked at the chart from August 29, the tandem race for Worth Repeating and Buenos Dias.

both ran in this 11 furlong race. I interpreted the RDSS readout for the stretch call to be the mile call which is incorrect. For 11 furlong races the stretch call looks like the 10 furlong call and actual mile positions off the lead are closer to what is shown as the 2nd call, but in fact, one can only guess at the lengths back in this instance, if all you use is the RDSS info. Actual position can only be determined from the charts as BD was shown as 14.5 lengths behind at the mile call and Worth Repeating was 12 lengths behind.

Instead of running somewhere near 134.20 they were actually running 136.6 in the case of Worth Repeating and 137.1 for Buenos Dias.

Using the same pacelines that I used here the times and positions would be:

Worth 2nd by 12, mile time 136.6, gaining position from 2nd to 1st
Treat 2nd by 2, mile time 138.8, gaining from 2nd to 1st
Unusual 3rd by 1.5, mile time 136.6, gaining positions from 4th to 3rd
Buenos 5th by 14.5, mile time 137.1, gaining positions from 5th to 3rd
Marlang 1st by 2.5, mile time 135.7, open lead
Temple 1st by 1, mile time 136.4, open lead

I would still see the two early horses cancelling each other out and as the race ran Temple outdueled Marlang early, but Marlang pushed from about 1.5+ or so off. The favorite Treat was too slow by this analysis and if you look into the last two races of Worth, he backed up against slower paces (114's), so I am not going to redboard this and pick the winner, but it shows that two closers Unusual and Buenos were good enough (placed 1st and 3rd). This race was gettable with a better analysis by yours truly.

Hopefully I will not make this type of mistake again.


Best regards,

Bill

[jma1143]

Greetings Bill,

I am a Jim Bradshaw Matcher, as I assume u r also? JB Matchers do not use software to handicap.

I bet the #7 horse(temple City). Felt he would wire the field.

Look at the PP's of the #6(Marlang),in his only wire to wire win, he has to get the lead at the first call by at least two lengths. He won't get that today with the #7 in the race.

Also, look in the PP's of the 7 horse, he is a fighter.

Best of Matching to ya
jma

[Bill Lyster]

I only had the RDSS download info available and used an incorrect interpretation of what I thought was a mile split time.

I agree about Marlang, but I thought Temple City was one who needed to lead by open lengths as well based on lines 3 thru 5. I cannot recognize the traits that made you believe he is a fighter. Can you elaborate on what you saw that lead you to that conclusion. The most recent five races seem to indicated "I got to get the lead or nothing" and with Marlang having faster splits in marathon races I thought they'd cancel out. I do see a faster early fraction in line 5 that would have cooked Marlang as it did TC in that race.

--The actual pace of the race was almost the predicted 48.1-112.9 BTW


Thanks for your input. Always looking to get better at this.

Bill

[jma1143]

Top of the mornin Bill,

It's mornin here in Calif.

My evaluation of the race, had Marlang as the need to lead horse. Note the horse's only two wins in his PP's were wire to wire. His running style for me was early.

Temple City, lines 6 and 8 shows he can be competitive and win not being on the lead.

Energy distribution. Every fifth of a seecond faster a horse has to run at the start, it costs the horse two fifth at the finish. I thought Marlang would expend excess energy at the start, trying to keep up with Temple City it would cost him at the end of the race.

Temple City's mile time, line 6 45.2 110 135.3 4-2-1

Also, Marlang's por last race mile time line one 49.4 114 137.4 1-1-1.

Temple City's line 4,por mile time, same track 49.1 113.1 136.1 1-1-1.

I wish more Matchers would post.

All the best to ya,
Jma(John)

[Bill Lyster]

John:

Actually, I am in Northern California this week, so top of the morning to you too. Thanks for the quick reply. I will study your response more closely a little later, but I think I understand your reasoning.

I'm kinda of stuck from the standpoint that I saw what Temple City did in races 5 & 6 in quickly run races, but I am also reminded that The Hat told us to beware of horses that could not run back to their past performances and so when I saw the fades when 113+'s were posted (and declining LPRs) I determined that he wasn't up to it at today's projected race. Turns out HE wasn't and set it up for the closers who had made up ground in races run, internally at least, a few ticks faster. I just didn't pick the right one.

Feel free to post matched races. There are several who will respond and comment once we start posting up potential races.

Thanks again for your input,

Bill